Oil Crisis Map · As of 02/10/2026
65 straits, pipelines and ports with their status, how things have developed since January, plus heating oil prices and gas storage by country. Every figure with date and source.
How do you heat?
Your answer carries over to the calculator+76% distance. According to the EIA the voyage round the Cape takes almost 35 days instead of 19. More days means more charter, fuel and insurance.
Nautical miles calculated schematically (Eurostat SeaRoute), voyage time: U.S. EIA| Place | Status | Situation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg IslandPort and terminal | blockaded | Iran's most important export terminal is under the US blockade. According to the US military, US forces hit three Iranian tankers on 05/09. Now: exports at zero according to the US military, not independently confirmed. Before: around 1.68 million barrels a day. On 19 Sep CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper said Iran had exported zero barrels under the blockade. The US military is a party to the conflict and there is no independent confirmation. According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, quoted by Al Jazeera on 28 Sep, around 15 million barrels of Iranian oil are stored at sea and could be shipped to China within two weeks. Bessent belongs to a party to the conflict. | Fortune 19 September 2026 (CENTCOM), Al Jazeera 28 September 2026, Washington Post 5 September 2026, CNN 5 September 2026 |
| Ras Laffan (Qatar, LNG)Port and terminal | force majeure (LNG) | On 28 Sep QatarEnergy extended the force majeure again, now into November and for individual customers into early December. Two LNG trains are damaged, and according to the company's chief executive their repair will take up to three years. Now: about 17 % of Qatari LNG capacity out of service (QatarEnergy, 21 September 2026); force majeure extended into November, for the Italian company Edison into early December (The National, 28 September 2026). Before: 509 cargoes in the first half of 2025. According to The National, buyers in Pakistan and Bangladesh, at least one buyer in India and Edison are affected. On 21 Sep chief executive Saad al-Kaabi called current LNG production very limited. After an opening of Hormuz, Qatar could restore normal operation within weeks. The North Field expansion depends on the strait, because plant components are not arriving. A gas to liquids plant at the same site is due to run again in the first quarter of 2027. | The National 28 September 2026, QatarEnergy via Tradingpedia 21 September 2026, Euronews 31 August 2026 |
| Nord Stream 1 and 2 (Baltic Sea)gas pipeline | destroyed and sanctioned | No gas has flowed through either system since the explosions of 26 September 2022. On 18 July 2025 the EU imposed a full transaction ban that also bars maintenance and any future use. Criminal proceedings are under way in Germany, with the first trial set for 26 October 2026 at the Higher Regional Court in Hamburg. Now: no flow, three of the four pipes damaged (as of 17/09/2026). Before: each designed for 55 billion cubic metres a year; Nord Stream 2 was never in commercial operation. Figures: Al Jazeera, 31/08/2026: both systems were destroyed in the explosions; Wikipedia status, 17/09/2026: line B of Nord Stream 2 was left undamaged, repairing the rest estimated at around 500 million dollars; Putin according to TASS, 04/06/2026: the remaining line needs only a decision by the German government; Bundestag, debate 21/05/2026: all parliamentary groups except the AfD rejected a restart. Statements about a restart come mostly from the Russian side or from US investors with an interest of their own and are not independently confirmed. On responsibility there are charges but no verdicts; Ukraine denies involvement. | Council of the EU 18/07/2025, Al Jazeera 02/07 and 31/08/2026, TASS 04/06/2026, German Bundestag 21/05/2026 |
| Yamal-Europe pipeline (via Belarus and Poland)gas pipeline | shut down since 2022 | Gazprom halted all flows through the Polish section in May 2022 after Russia imposed sanctions on the operating company. There has been no westward transit since. Poland took over Gazprom's stake in the Polish section in November 2022. Now: no westward transit, record as of 16/09/2026. Before: nominal capacity 33 billion cubic metres a year. No daily flow measurement is available for 2026. The assessment rests on the record at Global Energy Monitor and the absence of reports to the contrary. | Global Energy Monitor, page as of 16/09/2026, Moscow Times 12/05/2022 |
| Strait of HormuzStrait | restricted, figures heavily disputed | No longer effectively closed, but far below normal operation. The Revolutionary Guards declared the strait blocked on 11 Jul, and the USA has been blockading Iranian ports and escorting ships since 14 Jul. Traffic recovered further in September, and Saudi Arabia is loading large volumes again. Exactly how much is getting through remains fiercely disputed between the US government and ship trackers. On 1 Oct another tanker was hit in the strait by an unidentified projectile (UKMTO). On 29 Sep the Revolutionary Guards called the strait closed and rejected the US account that it is open; on the same day parliament speaker Ghalibaf warned that without security for Iran no infrastructure would remain safe. Now: 7.4 million barrels a day through the strait in September, 19 tankers in the week to 27 Sep, 17 of them supertankers (Kpler via Al Jazeera, 28 September 2026). Before: around 100 ships a day (Lloyd’s List), 20.9 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025 (EIA). Figures: Kpler via Al Jazeera, 28 Sep: 7.4 million barrels a day through the strait in September; 19 tankers in the week to 27 Sep, 17 of them supertankers; Kpler via CNN, 29 Sep: 13.1 million barrels per day in the last week of September against 17.1 million before the war, around 77 percent; Reuters, 29 Sep: 9 million barrels a day in the seven day average to 22 Sep, about 60 percent of the 2025 level; US Treasury Secretary Bessent via Al Jazeera, 28 Sep: 15 to 22 million barrels a day against about 20 million before the war; IEA, 18 Sep: 7.6 million barrels a day in August, 13.1 million below the pre-war level; Kpler via Splash247, 30 Sep: 9.72 million barrels a day as the September average, low of 2.2 million in July; Kpler via IBTimes, 1 Oct: 13.5 million barrels of crude a day (single-day figure for 28 Sep), roughly the pre-war level; refined products only 677,000 barrels a day as a seven-day average against 3.6 million before the war. The figures differ by a multiple because they measure different things: crude oil through the strait, all cargoes from the region, ship counts. Two Kpler figures for September also differ (7.4 million via Al Jazeera on 28 Sep, 9.72 million via Splash247 on 30 Sep); the reports do not state exactly what they cover. AIS data underestimate traffic because ships switch off their transponders. The US government is a party to the conflict. Matt Smith of Kpler said, according to CNN on 29 Sep, that at these volumes Iran is losing its leverage. Natasha Kaneva of JP Morgan said in the same report that higher transit numbers should not be confused with more safety, but show that the industry can operate under permanent risk. | Al Jazeera 28 September 2026 (Kpler), CNN 29 September 2026 (Kpler), Reuters via Baird Maritime 29 September 2026, IEA Commentary 18 September 2026, Splash247 30 September 2026 (Kpler), IBTimes 1 October 2026 (Kpler), Asharq Al-Awsat 2 October 2026 (UKMTO), Times of Israel 29 September 2026, EIA |
| Bab el-MandebStrait | severely restricted | Houthi forces hold Mokha, Dhubab, Perim and the Hanish Islands and have extended their control of the Red Sea coast. According to Al Jazeera (1 Oct) they have not so far taken the heights above the strait. Government troops widened their attacks in the Taiz region, reported on 27 Sep. No attack on a merchant ship has been reported since 24 Aug. Now: 26 ships a day on average in September (Kpler via Anadolu, 11 September 2026); no new count is available for the last week of September. Before: around 71 ships per day on average from January 2022 to October 2023 (Anadolu), 4.2 million barrels per day before the Red Sea crisis (EIA). The surveys continue to contradict each other: Reuters counted 21 transits on 16 Sep, Middle East Monitor cited IMF PortWatch on 17 Sep with 4 ships in 24 hours, and Anadolu cites the same data source for August with 28 ships per day. On 22 Sep the G7 called on the Houthis to stop attacks on civilian shipping and on Iran to end the arming of the Houthis. On 18 Sep the UN Security Council reported at least 125,000 people displaced since the beginning of September. On 27 Sep the Yemeni government reported attacks at five locations in the Taiz area. Attacks on Saudi Arabia continue: on 1 Oct the Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted four drones and two ballistic missiles aimed at Khamis Mushait and Jazan, with debris damaging buildings (Arab News); the Houthis deny an attack reported by the coalition on a substation in Medina on 29 Sep, which Al Jazeera could not verify. | Anadolu 11 September 2026 (Kpler and IMF PortWatch), Middle East Monitor 17 September 2026, Al Jazeera 24 and 27 September and 1 October 2026, Arab News 1 October 2026, Critical Threats 27 September 2026, G7 statement 22 September 2026, EIA |
| East-West Pipeline (Abqaiq to Yanbu)Pipeline | running again, about half capacity | The pipeline has been pumping again since 22 Sep and, according to Bloomberg, reached at least half of its capacity by the end of the week. It had been shut down since mid September after drone strikes on pumping stations. It is the most important route for bringing Saudi oil to the Red Sea bypassing Hormuz. Now: at least 3.5 million barrels per day, about half of the capacity of 7 million and around two thirds of the throughput before the attack (Bloomberg via Rigzone, 28 September 2026). Before: capacity 7 million barrels a day; around 5.5 million throughput before the outage, of which 4.5 million for export (Kpler, 17/09). Figures: Bloomberg via Rigzone, 28 Sep: at least 3.5 million barrels per day, about half of the capacity of 7 million; Kpler via Reuters, 29 Sep: about 2.65 million barrels a day, 3 to 4 million expected in the coming days; two trading sources via Reuters, 29 Sep: loadings at Yanbu about 2 million barrels a day; security source via Business Standard, 22 Sep: 40 % of capacity within a few days, full restart six to eight weeks. Three of eleven pumping stations were damaged. Aramco and the Saudi energy ministry have not commented, all figures come from unnamed sources and from ship trackers, and they diverge. Of the 7 million barrels of capacity, about 1.5 million goes to domestic refineries. According to Bloomberg, a full restart can take about six weeks. The date of the hit is disputed as well: Bloomberg and Rigzone give 10 Sep, CNN and Business Standard 11 Sep, Arab News 13 Sep. Saudi Arabia blames militias close to Iran in Iraq. No one has claimed responsibility. | Bloomberg via Rigzone 28 September 2026, Reuters via Marine Link and Baird Maritime 29 September 2026, Business Standard 22 September 2026, Kpler 17 September 2026 |
| Ras TanuraPort and terminal | loading, route runs through Hormuz | Loadings were ramped up sharply to make up for the outage at Yanbu. The oil has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the restart of the East-West pipeline, part of the exports has been running via the Red Sea again. Now: around 14 million barrels on seven supertankers in a single loading day over the weekend of 20 and 21/09 (TankerTrackers via Reuters); Gulf loadings averaging 3.7 million barrels a day since 12/09, against 2.9 million before (Vortexa). Before: normally 6 to 7 ships per week. MarineTraffic counts six supertankers with just under 12 million barrels for the same loading day. The two counts differ in method and time window; both show the same sharp increase. | Reuters via Al Arabiya 21/09/2026, Gulf News 23/09/2026 |
| BasraPort and terminal | severely restricted | Exports partly via ship to ship transfers off Oman. On 22/09 the oil ministry corrected media reports of 4 million barrels a day. Now: around 2.6 million barrels per day from the southern ports in September (Basra Oil Company, 24 September 2026); for total exports Al Jazeera gives around 2.5 million on 28 Sep. The figures measure different things.. Before: 3.4 million barrels a day. According to the ministry, the 4 million barrels in circulation referred to a single export day with one cargo of Qayara crude outside Hormuz. According to Al Jazeera (28 Sep), about 90 % of exports via the Gulf routes are blocked, and the report puts the revenue losses since the start of the war at about USD 60 billion. Iraq is seeking a higher OPEC plus baseline of 6 million barrels a day. | Al Jazeera 28 September 2026, Asharq Al-Awsat 24 September 2026 (Basra Oil Company), Iraq Business News 22 September 2026 |
| YanbuPort and terminal | exports running again, risk of attack | Crude exports have been running again since 22 Sep. According to Reuters, ESA satellite images from 27 Sep show about 40 tankers off the terminals. On 24 Sep the Houthis claimed attacks on Aramco facilities in Yanbu, and the Saudi led coalition reported six intercepted missiles. Now: about 2.65 million barrels a day, moving towards 3 to 4 million (Kpler via Splash247, 30 September 2026); about 2 million barrels a day loaded since the previous week (two trading sources via Reuters, 29 September 2026); just under 10 million barrels loaded at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz up to 27 Sep (ESA images via Reuters). Before: up to 4.5 million barrels a day of exports via the pipeline (Kpler). The Yasref refinery in Yanbu normally supplies around 200,000 barrels of diesel per day. The loss of exports via Yanbu has tightened middle distillates in Europe (Kpler, 17 Sep). On 25 Sep France pledged soldiers, radars and air defence for Yanbu (President Macron via Al Jazeera). According to Bloomberg, European contract customers received no allocation for October. Saudi Arabia exported about 5.4 million barrels a day in September after 2.45 million in August (Kpler via Splash247). On 30 Sep Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced a firm response to any threat and pointed to a multinational maritime coalition (Al Jazeera). | Reuters via Marine Link and Baird Maritime 29 September 2026, Splash247 30 September 2026 (Kpler), Al Jazeera 24, 25 and 30 September 2026, Bloomberg via Rigzone 22 September 2026, Kpler 17 September 2026 |
| Greenstream (Libya to Sicily)gas pipeline | residual flow only | The line from Mellitah to Gela is running at only a fraction of its capacity. Libya's domestic electricity demand takes priority and exports to Italy have fallen to their lowest level in more than twenty years. Now: 2025 average 105 million cubic feet a day, down 22 percent, around 14 percent of capacity. Before: capacity around 775 million cubic feet a day. The figure comes from a report on data from Libya's NOC; a primary source with 2026 figures is missing. | The Rio Times 28/08/2026, MEES 01/05/2026 |
| South Hook LNG, Milford HavenLNG terminal (import) | Qatar terminal without Qatar | South Hook is 67 percent owned by QatarEnergy and was built specifically for Qatari gas. No Qatari cargo has arrived there since 10 April 2026, which was Qatar's last delivery to Europe of any kind. The terminal with the heaviest single dependency is thus the hardest hit. Now: last Qatari delivery to Europe on 10/04/2026, QatarEnergy's force majeure extended to early November 2026. Before: designed for 15.6 million tonnes a year, around 20 percent of British gas demand. How much the terminal has handled from other sources since then has not been made public. The assessment rests on the absence of the main contractual source, not on a reported shutdown. | Cedigaz 23/04/2026, Euronews 31/08/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026 |
| Suez CanalCanal | disrupted | Open, and traffic is recovering. The Suez Canal Authority reports 27 percent more vessels in August than a year earlier, and major shipping lines are returning. Now: 1,358 vessels in August 2026, 27% more than in August 2025 (Suez Canal Authority). Before: Suez and SUMED together 4.9 million barrels a day. That works out to around 44 ships per day. Revenue in August came to USD 567.1 million, 56.7 % more than in August 2025. On 22 Sep the large container ship OOCL Portugal passed through the canal for the first time in the northbound convoy. No new figures are available for the last week of September. | Suez Canal Authority via Cyprus Shipping News and allAfrica 22 September 2026, EIA |
| Panama CanalCanal | disrupted (drought) | Because of an El Niño drought the canal authority is letting fewer ships through and limiting draught. This has nothing to do with the Middle East conflict. Now: 32 transits a day, 33 again from 15 October 2026 (canal authority, 28 September 2026). Before: 36 a day normally, 2.3 million barrels a day. On 28 Sep the Canal Authority raised the maximum permitted draught in the Neopanamax locks from 14.63 to 14.94 metres with immediate effect, citing rainfall close to the long term average and water saving measures. According to the authority the catchment area remains in water deficit. | Panama Canal Authority 28 September 2026, Rio Times, EIA |
| SUMED pipelinePipeline | running, supply at risk | Brings oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. With the restart of the East-West pipeline, Saudi supply is flowing again. Now: loading has been going on again at Sidi Kerir since 22 Sep, after a ten day pause (Reuters, 29 September 2026). Before: capacity 2.5 million barrels a day. The volume figures for August diverge: on 17 Sep Rio Times gave about 1.9 million barrels a day for the whole line, while on 24 Sep Reuters gave about 2.3 million barrels a day for Saudi crude via Sidi Kerir alone. Traders moved tankers to Port Said for transfers and to Sidi Kerir for Saudi cargoes. | Rio Times 17 September 2026, Reuters via EnterpriseAM 24 September 2026, Reuters via Marine Link 29 September 2026 |
| Kirkuk–CeyhanPipeline | sharply throttled | Running at a low level. The agreement with Turkey was extended by one year on 1 Aug. Since 16 Sep Iraq has additionally been trucking crude from Basra to Kirkuk in order to export it via Ceyhan, bypassing Hormuz. Now: 120 to 135 thousand barrels a day (mid August); no throughput figure is available for the last week of September. Before: around 300 thousand barrels a day in July. The figures contradict each other. On 28 Sep Al Jazeera gives an agreement covering 750 thousand barrels a day, while in August Shafaq News gave an actual throughput of 120 to 135 thousand. The head of the Basra Oil Company gave 250 thousand barrels a day being trucked to Kirkuk; the pilot operation began on 16 Sep. | Al Jazeera 28 September 2026, Devdiscourse 09/2026, Shafaq News 13 August 2026 |
| CPC pipeline to NovorossiyskPipeline | disrupted, recovering | After attacks on tankers in the Black Sea in July, loadings rose markedly again in August. A decline is expected for September because of the maintenance at the Karachaganak field. No attack was reported in the last week of September. Now: 1.6 million barrels a day in August, about 1.5 million expected for September (Reuters via Pipeline & Gas Journal, 14 September 2026). Before: 1.32 million barrels a day in July. The maintenance at Karachaganak ran from 7 Sep to 1 Oct and costs 400 to 450 thousand tonnes of oil and gas condensate according to Times of Central Asia. Kazakhstan cut its 2026 annual target from 98 to 96 million tonnes. More than 80 % of Kazakh exports run through the CPC. No plan is available for the October loadings. Russian oil exports through the port of Novorossiysk rose in September to 650 thousand barrels a day according to market sources; the CPC volumes run through a separate terminal and are not included in that figure (Newsquawk, 22 Sep). | Pipeline & Gas Journal 14 September 2026, Times of Central Asia 16 September 2026, Newsquawk 22 September 2026 |
| FujairahPort and terminal | loading, risk of attack | End point of the ADCOP pipeline, already outside Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman. Now: see ADCOP. | Argus |
| Ust-Luga and PrimorskPort and terminal | loading despite attacks | Ukrainian drones hit Ust-Luga on 14 Aug and 1 Sep. Russia is loading more nonetheless. The wave of attacks on refineries inland continues; no attack on the port itself was reported in the last week of September. Now: Ust-Luga around 700,000 barrels per day (Reuters via Moscow Times, 1 September 2026); Russian seaborne exports 3.71 million barrels per day as a four week average to 27 September 2026 (Bloomberg via Moscow Times, 29 September 2026). On 26 Sep the Ilski refinery in the Krasnodar region caught fire after a drone attack; it processes 6.6 million tonnes per year. On 30 Sep Russia extended its diesel export ban for producers to 31 Oct; petrol stays banned until January and jet fuel until November (Moscow Times). Overnight into 2 Oct, according to Meduza, Ukrainian drones hit the Volgograd refinery and a Transneft facility with a tank farm near Samara; the fires are documented only by eyewitness videos, and officially only a drone attack on industrial infrastructure has been confirmed. On 1 Oct President Putin put the cost of the refinery attacks at about 1 % of GDP (Meduza). A decree of 28 Sep bans the publication of refinery and export data unless companies disclose it themselves (Kyiv Independent); this makes independent outage figures harder to obtain. On 21 Sep the Ukrainian general staff spoke of a drop of more than 45 % in Russian refining capacity. Ukraine is a party to the conflict and there is no independent confirmation. | Bloomberg via Moscow Times 29 September 2026, Reuters via Moscow Times 1 September 2026, Kyiv Independent 26 and 28 September 2026, Moscow Times 30 September 2026, Meduza 1 and 2 October 2026 |
| New York HarborPort and terminal | distillate very tight | Pricing point for heating oil in the US Northeast. Heating oil and diesel come from the same distillate group and therefore move together: on 22 Sep diesel reached a record in US retail at $6.53 per gallon and has been just below that since. Now: Heating oil in New York State USD 6.27 per gallon, 70.1 % above the previous year (NYSERDA, survey 21 September 2026); distillate stocks nationwide 107.4 million barrels, around 12 % below the five year average (EIA, 18 September 2026). Before: Heating oil in New York USD 3.687 per gallon in September 2025. A ban on US diesel exports has not been decided. On 27 Sep President Trump called it very seriously under consideration, on 26 Sep the White House signalled to Senator Ted Cruz that it would not come, and on 23 Sep Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a ban would not work. On 28 Sep the White House said three routes short of a ban were being examined. Diesel in US retail cost USD 6.44 per gallon on 29 Sep (AAA). | NYSERDA Weekly Energy and Fuel Markets Report 25 September 2026, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 23 September 2026, AAA 29 September 2026, Yahoo Finance 28 September 2026 |
| Langeled and the Norwegian export networkgas pipeline | maintenance season, flows reduced | With around a third of EU gas imports, Norway is Europe's largest supplier. The annual maintenance season is running in September 2026, cutting deliveries for several weeks, and that with storage levels low. An exceptional outage is not documented. Now: seasonal maintenance cuts deliveries for several weeks (Gas Outlook, 07/09/2026). Before: pipeline exports 2025: 114.9 billion cubic metres, down 2.3 percent on the 2024 record; normally around 340 million cubic metres a day. A plan from October 2025 cited maintenance outages of 26 million cubic metres a day for September 2026. No confirmation of the actual outages is available. | Gas Outlook 07/09/2026, Argus Media 31/10/2025, Pipeline & Gas Journal January 2026 (Gassco) |
| Nigeria LNG, Bonny IslandLNG terminal (export) | force majeure, gas shortage | Nigeria LNG is producing but has been under force majeure continuously since 2022 because too little gas arrives from the hinterland. It will only be lifted at 90 percent utilisation. Despite the price rally the company says it serves its existing customers first. Now: utilisation 82 to 83 percent, force majeure still in force (17/09/2026). Before: six trains with 22 million tonnes a year; Train 7 is to raise this to 30 million tonnes by the end of 2027. | Ecofin Agency 17/09/2026 |
| LNG terminal Mukran, RügenLNG terminal (import) | only one unit left | The private terminal off Rügen was Germany's strongest import point in the winter of 2025/26 with 22 terawatt hours, but it now works with one floating unit instead of two. In previous years utilisation was in the low single digits. Now: winter 2025/26: 22 terawatt hours sent out, import growth in 2026 over 70 percent. Before: capacity 412 gigawatt hours a day with two units, utilisation in 2025 only 3 percent. The capacity figure applies to operation with two units; no current operator figure for operation with one unit is available. | ingenieur.de August 2026, zfk 27/03/2025 |
| LNG terminal DunkirkLNG terminal (import) | strike pushes send-out down | France's largest LNG terminal was hit by a nationwide energy strike on 15 September 2026 and send-out collapsed to 4 gigawatt hours a day. The timing catches Europe in the middle of filling its storage. Now: around 476 gigawatt hours a day below normal on 15/09/2026; Fos-sur-Mer and Montoir ran normally. Before: capacity 9.55 million tonnes a year, which is 13 billion cubic metres. Whether the strike continues beyond 15/09/2026 is not confirmed. | Reuters via Global Banking and Finance 15/09/2026, France 24 15/09/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026 |
| LNG terminal Montoir-de-BretagneLNG terminal (import) | Qatar contract lying idle | Montoir is running normally in technical terms. The site does, however, hold a long-term contract for 3 million tonnes of Qatari gas a year until 2035 that has not been served since the Ras Laffan outage. As a substitute, Montoir was one of the main arrival ports for Russian Yamal LNG in January 2026. Now: operating normally on 15/09/2026; six cargoes from Yamal in January 2026. Before: capacity 9.84 million tonnes a year, bookings fully allocated until 2035. That the Qatari contract is not currently being served follows from QatarEnergy's force majeure. No terminal-specific confirmation is available. | Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, Reuters 15/09/2026, gCaptain 04/02/2026 |
| Keystone pipeline system (Hardisty to Cushing and Port Arthur)Pipeline | throttled after a leak | The system brings Canadian heavy crude to Cushing and the US Gulf Coast. Since the pipe rupture in North Dakota in April 2025 it has been running under regulatory pressure restrictions and therefore below nominal capacity. The operator expects them to be lifted in stages only between the end of 2026 and 2027. Now: second quarter of 2026: around 596,000 barrels a day, operating factor 93 percent. Before: nominal capacity 700,000 barrels a day. No new leak is documented for 2026. The throttling goes back to the incident of April 2025, in which around 3,500 barrels escaped. | South Bow quarterly report 05/08/2026, PHMSA, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026 |
| Cape of Good HopeShipping route | alternative route in use | Detour around Africa for ships avoiding the Red Sea. Around ten days longer than via Suez. Now: no current September figure published. Before: 9.1 million barrels a day (first half of 2025). | U.S. EIA (volumes first half of 2025, typical voyage time), Anadolu |
| Habshan–Fujairah (ADCOP)Pipeline | bypass running, risk of attack | The most important bypass of Hormuz still running. Fujairah was hit by drones in March and May. Now: 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels a day (May). Before: nominal capacity 1.5 million barrels a day. | Argus, US News 04/05/2026 |
| Arctic LNG 2, Gydan (Russia)LNG terminal (export) | sanctioned, workaround running | The project has been under US blocking sanctions since November 2023 but has been exporting systematically to China since August 2025. Novatek runs a fleet of its own for this, and volumes are growing now that the world market can absorb them after Qatar's outage. Now: 2026 to 25/08: 2.3 million tonnes in 31 deliveries to Beihai in China, a fleet of at least 18 ships. Before: three trains of 6 million tonnes planned, 19.8 million tonnes a year in total. How many trains produce permanently is not independently confirmed. The foreign shareholders have had their stakes frozen since December 2023. | Barents Observer 25/08/2026, project figures via Wikipedia 17/09/2026 |
| LNG terminal ZeebruggeLNG terminal (import) | hub for Russian LNG | Zeebrugge is Europe's largest transshipment point for Russian LNG and took six Yamal cargoes in January 2026. Transshipment for onward carriage to third countries is banned in EU ports, while imports for consumption in the EU remain allowed until January 2027. Now: January 2026: six cargoes from Yamal, no technical disruption reported. Before: regasification capacity 9 billion cubic metres a year. | Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, gCaptain 04/02/2026, Barents Observer 25/08/2026 |
| Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline (ESPO) to KozminoPipeline | running at full load, China's replacement barrels | Since the loss of Hormuz, Russia's Pacific route has been the key marginal barrel for Chinese and Indian refineries. Loadings at Kozmino are steady at around 1 million barrels a day. The sanctions hit tankers and trading chains above all, not the line. Now: Kozmino loading plan for September 2026: 4.0 million tonnes, around 2 percent less per day than in August. Before: main line designed for 1.6 million barrels a day, length 4,857 kilometres. Figures: Reuters, 2026: exports from Kozmino up 6 percent in seven months, China accounts for 83 percent of purchases, India 16; CREA, July 2026: ESPO makes up 74 percent of the Russian crude discharged in China, against 62 the month before; CREA, July 2026: around 62 percent of Russian seaborne crude travels on sanctioned shadow fleet tankers. A daily volume for the line alone, separate from the port loadings, is not available. | Reuters via MarineLink September 2026, Reuters via OilPrice 2026, CREA July 2026 |
| Trans Mountain pipeline with expansionPipeline | running at full load, redirected to Asia | TMX brings crude oil from Alberta to the Pacific coast near Vancouver and has been running at full capacity for the first time since June 2026. Around two thirds of the cargoes go to Asia, with China the largest buyer. The next capacity step was brought forward because of the crisis. Now: second quarter of 2026: 840,000 barrels a day, 94 percent utilisation, 82 tankers in the quarter. Before: operating capacity 890,000 barrels a day; 703,000 barrels a day in the same quarter a year earlier. Figures: Trans Mountain, quarterly report 2026: 510,000 barrels a day through the Westridge terminal, 65 percent of tankers bound for Asia; Bloomberg, September 2026: an extra 10 percent of capacity by the end of 2026 instead of 2027 as planned. | Trans Mountain quarterly report Q2 2026, Bloomberg via EnergyConnects September 2026, Reuters 11/06/2026 |
| Goreh-Jask pipeline to the Gulf of OmanPipeline | bypass in use, low throughput | Iran uses this line to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and loads at the Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman. Loadings have been documented again since March 2026, but on a small scale and with long gaps. Now: first recorded exports from Jask in March 2026 at 64,600 barrels a day, at least six tanker deliveries between March and July. Before: designed for 300,000 barrels a day, planned expansion to 1 million barrels a day. Iran's total exports were 687,500 barrels a day in July 2026. A separate monthly volume for Jask is not shown within that. | S&P Global Commodity Insights 05/08/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026 |
| Sunda StraitStrait | alternative route, barely used | The Sunda Strait between Sumatra and Java counts as an alternative to Malacca but carries only a fraction of the traffic in normal operation. It is deeper than Malacca and takes fully laden large tankers, but it costs time. Now: no sourced transit figure is available for 2026. Before: around 2,280 ships a year according to the commercial provider Ballast Markets, about 2.4 percent of Malacca traffic; detour 7 to 8 days. The transit figures come from a commercial provider with no identifiable primary source and no date. An increase in 2026 is not documented. | Ballast Markets (retrieved 17/09/2026), RSIS |
| Lombok StraitStrait | deep-water alternative route | The Lombok Strait is the deep alternative to Malacca and is used regularly by the largest tankers, for which Malacca's draught is tight. Whether it is being used more in 2026 cannot be documented with public data. Now: no reliable transit figure for 2026; a traffic service reported normal operation on 17/09/2026 but pointed to a thin data base. Before: the fairway is several hundred metres deep, whereas Malacca has a governing depth of around 25 metres. Figures: Eurasia Review, 11/05/2026: around 15,099 ships in 2023, and 21,547 elsewhere in the same text; VanEck, 2026: Malacca carried around 23.2 million barrels a day in mid-2025 and thus 29 percent of seaborne oil trade. The two ship counts for 2023 contradict each other, and an official Indonesian count for 2026 is not available. | Eurasia Review 11/05/2026, GEOPOL and ShipInfo (retrieved 17/09/2026), VanEck 2026 |
| Strait of MalaccaStrait | running, elevated risk | No disruption reported. Far less oil is coming from the Gulf to Asia, however. Now: around 224 cargo ships a day (IMF PortWatch, 7 days to 13/09). Before: 23.2 million barrels a day. | IMF PortWatch, EIA |
| Bosporus and DardanellesStrait | running, elevated risk | Turkey withheld permits for ships to Russia and Ukraine from 06 to 09/08; transits have been running again since. War risk insurance in the Black Sea has risen sharply. Now: transits open again since 9 August 2026; no count available for September. Before: 3.7 million barrels a day. On 17 Sep the Joint War Committee in London classified the economic zones of Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia as a high risk area, explicitly not their territorial waters. The risk company Ambrey counted 156 attacks on ships in Russian and Ukrainian waters between 1 Jul and 21 Sep; in the same period of 2025 there were 12. | Turkish Minute 24 September 2026 (Ambrey, Joint War Committee), gCaptain 9 August 2026, EIA |
| Danish StraitsStrait | running, elevated risk | Main route for Russian Baltic exports, including the so-called shadow fleet. No current disruption reported. Now: Russian seaborne exports 3.71 million barrels a day in the four week average to 27 Sep, 3.99 million in the single week (Bloomberg via Moscow Times, 29 September 2026). Before: 4.9 million barrels a day. On 18 Sep US President Trump signed a sanctions law that allows measures against the shadow fleet and tariffs of up to 100 % against the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas. Its application is at his discretion. On 22 Sep the EU ambassadors extended the listing of more than 2,600 people and entities from six to 36 months. No new detentions of tankers were reported in the last week of September. | Bloomberg via Moscow Times 29 September 2026, Grosswald Baltic Sea Security Tracker 22 September 2026, Al Jazeera 19 September 2026, EIA |
| Druzhba pipelinePipeline | running according to the latest report | The southern branch to Hungary and Slovakia has been running again since 23/04. No reliable status is available for August and September. Now: southern branch back in operation since 23/04, no more recent reliable figure. | Wikipedia (2026 Druzhba pipeline dispute) |
| Rotterdam (ARA)Port and terminal | running, under strain | Europe’s hub for diesel and heating oil. Stocks in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp are rising, while a gap is emerging in jet fuel for the fourth quarter. Now: gasoil 12.33 million barrels and heavy fuel oil 5.33 million barrels on average in September (ENGINE, 25 September 2026). The entry heavy heating oil refers to fuel oil of bunker quality, not the heating oil used in households; that is contained in the gasoil line. The fuel oil stock is around 15 % above August and around 47 % above the ten year low of May, but 18 % below the February level before the war began. Energy Aspects expects a jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day in Europe in the fourth quarter; European jet fuel imports from South Korea reached 129,000 barrels per day in September, the highest figure since October 2022 (Kpler via Reuters). | ENGINE 25 September 2026, Airways Magazine 21 September 2026 (Energy Aspects, Kpler) |
| US Gulf Coast (Houston)Port and terminal | refineries running almost flat out | US refineries are running close to their utilisation limit. A diesel export ban is being discussed openly in Washington. Now: refinery utilisation 94.0 % nationwide, 96.5 % on the Gulf Coast (EIA, week to 18 September 2026). In the week to 18 Sep the USA exported about 1.33 million barrels of distillates a day, against 1.61 million in the week before. API chief Mike Sommers warned on 22 Sep that an export ban would make the problem bigger. The Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable warned in a joint letter to the president on 24 Sep. | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 23 September 2026, API 22 September 2026, CNBC 24 September 2026 |
| Libya (Es Sider)Port and terminal | running, political risk | Production at its highest level in 13 years (Rio Times, 5 September 2026), no port closure known in Es Sider. At the end of September an armed group shut down the pipeline from Sharara to Zawiya. Now: Valve 7 of the Sharara to Zawiya line was closed for five days, oil has been flowing again since 26 Sep. Before: last reported 1.49 million barrels a day (June 2026). On 25 Sep the NOC put the loss at 720,362 barrels and more than USD 75 million, while on 26 Sep The National gave more than 942,000 barrels and about USD 95 million for the whole week. The Zawiya refinery, with a capacity of 120 thousand barrels, shut down one processing unit. The National names armed groups of the Western South Oil Facilities Guard Agency and the Western Military Zone as responsible. | NOC 25 September 2026, Libya Observer 26 September 2026, The National 26 September 2026, Quantum Commodity Intelligence 27 September 2026, Rio Times 5 September 2026 |
| Nigeria (Bonny)Port and terminal | running | European refineries are buying replacements here for the missing Saudi oil. Now: 320,040 barrels a day through the Bonny terminal in August 2026 (NUPRC, 13 September 2026). In August 2026 Nigeria produced about 1.68 million barrels of crude and condensate a day in total. The country's gasoline exports reached about USD 750 million in the first half of 2026, mainly via the Dangote refinery (figures from the National Bureau of Statistics via Billionaires Africa, 25 Sep). | NUPRC 13 September 2026, Billionaires Africa 25 September 2026 |
| TurkStream with Balkan Streamgas pipeline | running, last Russian route | Since the end of Ukrainian transit on 1 January 2025, the only route for Russian pipeline gas to Europe. Volumes in 2026 are slightly above the year earlier. Drone attacks on the Russkaya compressor station and the agreed EU exit by autumn 2027 weigh on it. Now: August 2026: 51.9 million cubic metres a day, up 3 percent on August 2025. Before: designed for 31.5 billion cubic metres a year for both strings together. Whether Bulgaria will stop transit to Serbia and Hungary is disputed between Sofia, Belgrade, Budapest and the European Commission. | Pipeline & Gas Journal 03/09/2026, TASS 01/07/2026, Balkan Green Energy News 02/06/2026 |
| Transmed (Algeria via Tunisia to Italy)gas pipeline | running, Italy's main artery | The central gas axis from Algeria to Italy and, since 2022, Italy's most important supply line. After QatarEnergy's force majeure, European governments travelled to Algiers in March 2026 to secure additional volumes. The bottleneck is not the pipe but Algerian production. Now: no published monthly volume is available for 2026. Before: nominal capacity around 33.5 billion cubic metres a year; Algeria delivered 20 billion cubic metres to Italy in 2025 in total, which is 36 percent of Italian consumption. | Carnegie Endowment 09/07/2026, Il Sole 24 Ore 2026, Ecofin Agency 21/07/2026 |
| Medgaz (Algeria to Spain)gas pipeline | running, expansion under negotiation | Connects Beni Saf with Almería and has been Algeria's only direct gas link to Spain since the Maghreb-Europe line closed in 2021. Madrid and Algiers have been negotiating since March 2026 over up to ten percent more throughput. Now: Algerian gas covered over 29 percent of Spanish gas imports in the first two months of 2026. Before: capacity after the expansion 10 to 16 billion cubic metres a year depending on the source. The capacity figures diverge considerably according to Global Energy Monitor, and no officially confirmed figure after the expansion is available. | Pipeline & Gas Journal 26/03/2026, Carnegie Endowment 09/07/2026, Global Energy Monitor 16/09/2026 |
| Trans Adriatic Pipeline with TANAP (Southern Gas Corridor)gas pipeline | running, first expansion stage complete | Carries Azerbaijani gas from Shah Deniz via Turkey and Greece to Italy. The first expansion stage was completed in early 2026. Despite the crisis its contribution to the EU gas mix remains small. Now: 60 billion cubic metres to Europe cumulatively since operations began, 50 of them to Italy (TAP AG, 10/07/2026). Before: initial capacity 10 billion cubic metres a year, target at least 20 by 2027; Azerbaijan delivered 11.3 billion cubic metres to the EU in 2025, which is 3.9 percent of EU gas imports. The expansion commitment sits uneasily with production trends in Azerbaijan. The doubts come from reporting, not from TAP or SOCAR. | TAP AG 10/07/2026, Caucasus Business Journal 28/06/2026, Council of the EU (2025 data) |
| Sabine Pass LNG, LouisianaLNG terminal (export) | largest US plant, full load | The largest liquefaction plant in the USA is running flat out in the crisis market. Cheniere loaded its 5,000th cargo here on 29 August 2026. A large share of the cargoes has gone to Europe since Qatar's outage. Now: no disruption reported; US exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet a day in the first half of 2026, up 23 percent. Before: nominal capacity 3.6 billion cubic feet a day, around 29.5 million tonnes a year, six trains. | U.S. EIA via LNG Industry 16/09/2026, Cheniere via Offshore Energy 31/08/2026, American Gas Association 03/09/2026 |
| Corpus Christi LNG, TexasLNG terminal (export) | expansion complete, second-largest plant | At the end of August 2026 Cheniere reported the completion of the Stage 3 expansion with seven smaller trains. The extra volume reaches the market in exactly the half-year in which Qatar is out. Now: Stage 3 completed, no disruption reported. Before: nominal capacity 3.1 billion cubic feet a day, over 25 million tonnes a year at the site. Accounts of the completion date differ: Cheniere cites 28/08/2026, the EIA analysis 18/08/2026. | U.S. EIA via LNG Industry 16/09/2026, Cheniere via Offshore Energy 31/08/2026 |
| Plaquemines LNG, LouisianaLNG terminal (export) | ramping up, exports increased | Venture Global's plant on the Mississippi has been ramping up since December 2024. On 14 March 2026 the US Department of Energy approved exports 13 percent higher, expressly in response to the supply gap. Phase 2 is under construction. Now: approved exports 3.85 billion cubic feet a day since 14/03/2026; around 2 million tonnes shipped in February 2026. Before: Phase 1 with 10 million tonnes a year in operation, Phase 2 with a further 10 million tonnes under construction. | US Department of Energy via Reuters March 2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026 |
| Golden Pass LNG, TexasLNG terminal (export) | newly on stream, Qatar in Texas | The joint project of QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil began production on 30 March 2026 and loaded its first cargo on 22 April. The most striking case of the crisis: the same group is earning in Texas while its plant at Ras Laffan is under force majeure. Now: first export cargo on 22/04/2026; first two trains at 1.4 billion cubic feet a day in 2026 according to the EIA forecast. Before: designed for 18.1 million tonnes a year, three trains. | Golden Pass LNG 30/03/2026, U.S. EIA Today in Energy |
| Yamal LNG, Sabetta (Russia)LNG terminal (export) | running, EU ban from 2027 | Yamal LNG is not sanctioned and continues to deliver to Europe legally. In January 2026, 23 of 25 cargoes went to EU ports. The EU import ban on Russian LNG only takes effect in January 2027, and buying is being brought forward until then. Now: January 2026: 1.69 million tonnes, 92.6 percent of it to the EU, up 8 percent on the year earlier. Before: nominal capacity 17.4 million tonnes a year, four trains. Global Energy Monitor cites exports of 21.2 million tonnes for 2024, more than the nominal capacity, without explaining the difference. | gCaptain 04/02/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, Barents Observer 25/08/2026 |
| Sakhalin 2 LNG, Prigorodnoye (Russia)LNG terminal (export) | running, US waiver until December | Sakhalin 2 is producing normally and supplies Japan above all. On 11 June 2026 the US Treasury extended the waiver for Japanese purchases to 18 December 2026, expressly citing the closure of Hormuz. Now: production 2025: 10.3 million tonnes, up 1 percent; Japan takes around 3.6 to 3.9 million tonnes a year. Before: nominally 15.0 million tonnes a year; two trains totalling 9.6 million tonnes are in operation. If the waiver expires in December, Japan will be short of volumes at short notice in an already sold-out market. | US Treasury via Oil & Gas Journal 12/06/2026, Interfax January 2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026 |
| Gladstone and Curtis Island LNG, QueenslandLNG terminal (export) | full load, export quota planned | Australia is running its plants practically at the limit. In August 2026 exports were at 97.2 percent of national nominal capacity. Political headwinds loom: the government plans to reserve volumes for the domestic market. Now: August 2026: Australia 7.10 million tonnes in total in 102 cargoes; Queensland 1.95 million tonnes in 30 cargoes. Before: Gladstone LNG alone 7.8 million tonnes a year, Australia 86.0 million tonnes a year in total. On the planned 20 percent domestic reservation only a headline is available; the start and the scope are unconfirmed. | EnergyQuest August 2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026 |
| LNG terminal Wilhelmshaven 1 and 2LNG terminal (import) | high utilisation, storage empty | Wilhelmshaven is Germany's most important LNG send-out point and runs with two floating units. Together with Brunsbüttel the site sent over 25 terawatt hours into the grid in the first quarter of 2026, more than ever before in three months. It is still not enough: German storage was as low in August as at no point in at least 15 years. Now: utilisation 80 to 81 percent in 2025; German storage at 53.3 percent on 31/08/2026. Before: up to 9 billion cubic metres of grid send-out a year together. According to the transmission system operators' system analysis, all German LNG terminals together cover only around 10 percent of peak demand on the coldest days. | Deutsche Energy Terminal 2026, ingenieur.de August 2026, Serbia Energy 06/09/2026 |
| LNG terminal BrunsbüttelLNG terminal (import) | running almost flat out | The floating unit Höegh Gannet has been sending out since spring 2023 and is the steadiest of the state terminals. In 2024 utilisation was above 80 percent, in 2025 close to full load. Now: no disruption reported (17/09/2026). Before: up to 4.0 billion cubic metres of grid send-out a year. The terminal-by-terminal utilisation figures come from an analysis of March 2025; no more recent figure for 2026 is available. | Deutsche Energy Terminal 2026, zfk 27/03/2025 |
| Gate terminal RotterdamLNG terminal (import) | expansion to 20 billion cubic metres | North-west Europe's largest LNG entry point is being expanded with a fourth tank. Capacity is to rise from around 16 to 20 billion cubic metres a year. In January 2026 Rotterdam also took Russian Yamal cargoes. Now: expansion under construction, no disruption reported. Before: currently 14.7 million tonnes a year, which is around 16 billion cubic metres. Whether the expansion actually went into service in the third quarter of 2026 is not confirmed. | Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, gCaptain 04/02/2026 |
| LNG terminal ŚwinoujścieLNG terminal (import) | expanded, running almost flat out | Poland raised capacity from 5 to 8.3 billion cubic metres a year in January 2025, after which utilisation was close to 90 percent. Most of the cargoes come from the USA. A second Polish unit off Gdańsk is not planned until early 2028. Now: utilisation close to 90 percent in the twelve months to April 2025; no verified figure for 2026. Before: capacity 8.3 billion cubic metres a year, previously 5 billion. | Gas Outlook 08/05/2025, LNG Prime 10/02/2026 |
| Barcelona regasification and the Spanish networkLNG terminal (import) | largest network in Europe, reserve | Spain has Europe's largest regasification capacity but is only weakly connected by pipeline to the rest of the continent. Barcelona is the largest single plant. Compared with the rest of Europe, Spanish terminals continue to run below average. Now: El Musel was at 13.9 percent utilisation in the first quarter of 2026, the EU average at 55 percent. Before: Barcelona alone 12.6 million tonnes a year, six tanks. No reliable current total figure for Spain's regasification capacity in billion cubic metres is available. | Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, IEEFA European LNG Tracker May 2026, Enagás |
| Isle of Grain LNG, KentLNG terminal (import) | expanded, running in crisis mode | After the expansion, the terminal at the mouth of the Thames is one of the largest import plants in Europe. The United Kingdom is expanding its regasification capacity while its own North Sea production falls away. Now: no disruption reported; UK capacity 21.7 billion cubic metres a year, being expanded to 27. Before: base plant 14.3 million tonnes a year, 23.0 million tonnes with the expansion. Whether the expansion is fully in service could not be confirmed for September 2026. | Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, IEEFA May 2026 |
| LNG terminal RevithoussaLNG terminal (import) | south-eastern entry, slots allocated | Revithoussa off Megara is, together with Alexandroupolis, the main entry point for LNG into south-eastern Europe. From the 2026/27 gas year Bulgargaz is building up an offering of its own through the Greek infrastructure. Now: no disruption reported; Greece has 12.5 billion cubic metres of regasification capacity in total. Before: capacity 5.1 million tonnes a year, storage 370,000 cubic metres. Current throughput figures for 2026 are not available. | Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, Serbia Energy 06/09/2026, IEEFA May 2026 |
| LNG terminal Krk, OmišaljLNG terminal (import) | Adriatic entry, expanded | The floating terminal off Omišalj was expanded to 6.1 billion cubic metres a year and in August 2026 took its first cargo from Hammerfest in Norway. Its value depends on whether the gas flows on northwards towards Hungary. Now: first cargo from Hammerfest in August 2026; EU storage at 65.4 percent on 31/08/2026 after around 78 percent a year earlier. Before: capacity 6.1 billion cubic metres a year. Reliable throughput figures for 2026 and the split between Croatian consumption and onward flow are not available. | Serbia Energy 06/09/2026, IEEFA May 2026 |
| Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipelinePipeline | running, volumes falling | The BTC brings Caspian oil to the Mediterranean bypassing Hormuz and the Bosporus and is not directly affected by the crisis. Volumes are falling all the same, because Azerbaijani production is declining. Kazakh oil is increasingly filling the line. Now: August 2026: 15.1 million barrels through the Turkish section, down 9.5 percent on July. Before: nominal capacity around 1.2 million barrels a day, length 1,768 kilometres. Figures: Trend.az, 17/09/2026: 15.1 million barrels of transit in August, down 9.5 percent; Reuters, July 2026: Azerbaijani exports 12.7 million tonnes in the first half, down 8.7 percent; Energy minister Bayraktar, 2026: around 600,000 barrels a day, around 400,000 barrels of capacity lying idle; AzerNews, 09/09/2026: Kazakh oil through the BTC up 12 percent in eight months. The figures are not directly comparable: Trend.az counts total transit through Turkey, Reuters only Azerbaijani crude. | Trend.az 17/09 and 11/09/2026, AzerNews 09/09/2026, Reuters July 2026, Global Energy Monitor |
| ESPO branch from Skovorodino to DaqingPipeline | overland route to China | The branch runs via Mohe to Daqing and delivers Russian crude straight to China, without Hormuz, without Malacca and without tankers. That is exactly why Beijing has upgraded this link strategically. Now: no publicly documented daily volume is available for 2026. Before: design capacity 600,000 barrels a day. A current, sourced throughput figure is missing for this line. The assessment rests on the design capacity and on reports about the growing role of the overland routes. | Transneft figures via Wikipedia 17/09/2026, CREA July 2026 |
| Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline (Atyrau, Atasu, Alashankou)Pipeline | overland route to China, being expanded | The line carries Kazakh crude overland to western China and so bypasses both Hormuz and Malacca. Volumes are growing slowly, but Kazakhstan has approved an expansion by 2030. Now: January to August 2026: 13.1 million tonnes, up 2 percent on the same period a year earlier. Before: Atasu to Alashankou section in July 2026: 98,000 tonnes, down 18.3 percent on the year earlier. The two figures are not directly comparable: the first covers the whole system, the second one section and one month. | KazTransOil via Astana Times September 2026, Interfax 2026 |
Heating oil price forecasts: Deutschland · Österreich · Schweiz · France · España · US Northeast
Ship numbers: IMF PortWatch (International Monetary Fund), aggregated by us into weekly averages. AIS data understate traffic when ships switch off their transponders. Pre-crisis volumes and voyage times: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices: EU Weekly Oil Bulletin, heizoel24.ch, NYSERDA. Gas storage: GIE AGSI+. Base map: Natural Earth. Shipping routes schematic after Eurostat SeaRoute (EUPL-1.2). Pipelines schematic.
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President Trump said he had to decide between attacking Iran and making a deal; he left open a resumption of bombing after the congressional elections on 3 November. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group has been under way since 27 Sep and is expected to arrive between the end of October and the end of November.
Gulf News, 02.10.2026At the Valdai forum, President Putin estimated the cost of the Ukrainian attacks on refineries at about one percent of GDP. Diesel cannot reach the world market because of sanctions, he said; for producers, Russia itself has banned exports until the end of October.
Meduza, 01.10.2026; The Moscow Times, 30.09.2026According to the Saudi-led coalition, four drones and two ballistic missiles were intercepted. Debris damaged buildings and cars in Khamis Mushait; there were no casualties. According to Al Jazeera, the Houthis hold sections of the Red Sea coast but have not so far taken the heights above the Bab el-Mandeb.
Arab News, 01.10.2026; Al Jazeera, 01.10.2026Overnight, according to Meduza, Ukrainian drones hit the Volgograd refinery, the Kaustik chemical plant and a Transneft facility with a tank farm near Samara. The governor of Volgograd spoke of a massive drone attack on industrial infrastructure; the fires are documented only by eyewitness videos and have not been officially confirmed.
Meduza, 02.10.2026The G7 decided to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel through the IEA, starting immediately and spread over four months, with a substantial diesel share in the first 20 days. This followed the US demand for at least 100 million barrels of diesel from Europe and the threat of a US export ban, which the European Commission rejected; whether the threat still stands is unclear. The European diesel future then fell by 8 percent during the day (as of 16:25).
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