What This Hub Is
The methodology explains the procedure. This hub delivers the raw data in one place: every parameter, every value, every source.
An energy-cost calculator is only as credible as the numbers it runs on. Instead of burying those numbers in code, we lay them out here in full. Every coefficient that decides how a Brent price shock passes through to fuel, heating, electricity and groceries is in the tables below, alongside the institution whose data it is calibrated from.
All values are read directly from the calculator's operative engine. They are not paraphrased here, they are taken one to one. Anyone who wants to recheck or reuse them can download the full table as CSV.
Pass-Through Coefficients
The core parameters: how a move in the Brent price reaches the four spending categories.
| Parameter | Value | Unit | Meaning | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BASE_OIL | 75 | USD/Barrel | Reference Brent price. At this level there are 0 extra costs, anything above passes through proportionally. | Brent-Spot (Modell-Basis) |
FUEL_PT_US | 0.026 | USD/Gallone je 1 USD/bbl | Price pass-through from crude oil to US pump fuel. | EIA |
FUEL_PT_EU | 0.0069 | USD/Liter je 1 USD/bbl | Price pass-through from crude oil to European fuel. | EIA, ADAC |
HEAT_OIL_COEF | 0.72 | Anteil | Pass-through of a Brent shock to heating-oil costs. | ADAC, DENA |
HEAT_OIL_BASE | 120 | USD/Monat | Reference monthly cost of oil heating as a calculation base. | EIA |
HEAT_GAS_COEF | 0.22 | Anteil | Pass-through to gas heating costs, post-2022 gas market structure. | IEA, Eurostat |
HEAT_GAS_BASE | 100 | USD/Monat | Reference monthly cost of gas heating as a calculation base. | EIA |
HEAT_ELEC_COEF | 0.10 | Anteil | Pass-through to electricity-based heating. | IEA |
HEAT_ELEC_BASE | 80 | USD/Monat | Reference monthly cost of electric heating as a calculation base. | EIA |
HEAT_HEATPUMP_COEF | 0.03 | Anteil | Pass-through to heat-pump heating, the lowest oil coupling. | IEA |
HEAT_HEATPUMP_BASE | 30 | USD/Monat | Reference monthly cost of a heat pump as a calculation base. | EIA |
ELEC_MULTIPLIER | 0.12 | Anteil | Coupling of the electricity price to oil, depending on the grid mix. | IEA |
GROC_MULTIPLIER | 0.12 | Anteil | Pass-through from oil to groceries via fertiliser, transport and processing. | USDA, Eurostat |
HH_EXPONENT | 0.75 | Exponent | Scaling exponent: costs grow with household size to the power of 0.75, not linearly. | Eurostat |
Choke-Point Surcharges
When a key shipping route is blocked, risk rises. The model adds these surcharges per category, capped at plus 60 percent.
| Route | Fuel | Electricity | Heating | Groceries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz | +20 % | +10 % | +15 % | +6 % |
| Bab el-Mandeb | +4 % | +1 % | +2 % | +8 % |
| Suez | +2 % | +1 % | +1 % | +6 % |
ROUTE_CAP: the sum of choke-point surcharges per category is capped at plus 60 percent.
Realistic-Capture Model
Saving tips do not work at a hundred percent in reality. Three factors lower the theoretical saving to an honest figure.
| Parameter | Value | Meaning | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
ADOPTION | 0.55 | Share of days on which a saving tip is applied consistently. | IEA |
PERSISTENCE | 0.65 | Remaining effect after six months, after which the impact fades. | ACEEE |
REBOUND_RETENTION | 0.85 | Remaining effect after the rebound effect is deducted. | ACEEE, Stanford |
REALISTIC_CAPTURE | 0.30 | Product of the three factors: the realistic share of the theoretical saving. | IEA, ACEEE, Stanford |
Download and Use
The complete parameter table as CSV, free to use with attribution.
The data is free to use, including commercially. We ask for attribution: globaloilshock.com, with a link to this page. That keeps it traceable for readers where the numbers come from.
Data as of 2026-05-23. The pass-through coefficients are reviewed quarterly against new publications, the choke-point surcharges when markets change materially.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where do these numbers come from?
Every coefficient is calibrated against publications by established institutions: IEA, EIA, ADAC, USDA, Eurostat and others. The source is in every table row. The full source documentation is on our data-sources page.
Why do the values differ from other calculators?
Pass-through is not a law of nature, it is an empirical estimate with a range. We calibrate deliberately conservatively and document every value openly so anyone can check the assumptions. Other models make other, equally defensible assumptions.
May I reuse the CSV data?
Yes. The data is free to use, including commercially. We only ask for attribution with a link to this page.
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