What This Hub Is
The methodology explains the procedure. This hub delivers the raw data in one place: every parameter, every value, every source.
An energy-cost calculator is only as credible as the numbers it runs on. Instead of burying those numbers in code, we lay them out here in full. Every coefficient that decides how a Brent price shock passes through to fuel, heating, electricity and groceries is in the tables below, alongside the institution whose data it is calibrated from.
All values are read directly from the calculator's operative engine. They are not paraphrased here, they are taken one to one. Anyone who wants to recheck or reuse them can download the full table as CSV.
Heating oil price map
Alongside the model parameters, this hub also carries a continuously refreshed price overview: what heating oil costs across the surveyed US areas and the EU member states, every figure with its source and its date.
The map draws on the US energy agency and on the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin, and is refreshed once a day. It is equally explicit about the gaps: the US survey pauses from April to September, and no free source exists for postcode-level prices in Germany, Austria or Switzerland. The page itself explains why.
Our own datasets on the 2026 oil shock
Alongside the model parameters we publish our own openly calculated datasets. Every figure carries its source and date, and every table comes as a CSV.
- Crack spread chart: 3-2-1, diesel, heating oil and jet fuel cracks calculated from EIA spot prices, weekly and monthly values since 2019.
- Oil shocks compared: Seven major oil shocks from 1973 to 2026: supply loss, price peak, IEA response and US recessions in one table.
- GOS Hormuz Exposure Index: How much each EU country depends on the Persian Gulf for crude, diesel and jet fuel, calculated from Eurostat import data.
- Oil Reserves Monitor: Emergency stocks of EU countries in days, the IEA release of 2026 and the US reserve, with a downloadable table.
Stable URLs for charts and scripts
Every table is also available at a URL that stays the same with each update. Link a Datawrapper or Flourish chart to it and new values flow in automatically; the server allows cross-origin requests (CORS). Dated files remain online as an archive. Please credit “Global Oil Shock” as the source.
- Crack spreads (EIA spot prices, our calculation):
https://globaloilshock.com/assets/data/crack-spread-eia-latest.csv - Oil shocks compared, 1973–2026:
https://globaloilshock.com/assets/data/oelschocks-vergleich-latest.csv - GOS Hormuz exposure index:
https://globaloilshock.com/assets/data/hormus-index-latest.csv - Oil reserves of EU countries:
https://globaloilshock.com/assets/data/oelreserven-latest.csv
Pass-Through Coefficients
The core parameters: how a move in the Brent price reaches the four spending categories.
| Parameter | Value | Unit | Meaning | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BASE_OIL | 75 | USD/barrel | Reference Brent price. At this level there are 0 extra costs, anything above passes through proportionally. | Brent-Spot (Modell-Basis) |
FUEL_PT_US | 0.026 | USD/gallon per 1 USD/bbl | Price pass-through from crude oil to US pump fuel. | EIA |
FUEL_PT_EU | 0.0069 | USD/litre per 1 USD/bbl | Price pass-through from crude oil to European fuel. | EIA, ADAC |
HEAT_OIL_COEF | 0.72 | Share | Pass-through of a Brent shock to heating-oil costs. | ADAC, DENA |
HEAT_OIL_BASE | 120 | USD/month | Reference monthly cost of oil heating as a calculation base. | EIA |
HEAT_GAS_COEF | 0.22 | Share | Pass-through to gas heating costs, post-2022 gas market structure. | IEA, Eurostat |
HEAT_GAS_BASE | 100 | USD/month | Reference monthly cost of gas heating as a calculation base. | EIA |
HEAT_ELEC_COEF | 0.10 | Share | Pass-through to electricity-based heating. | IEA |
HEAT_ELEC_BASE | 80 | USD/month | Reference monthly cost of electric heating as a calculation base. | EIA |
HEAT_HEATPUMP_COEF | 0.03 | Share | Pass-through to heat-pump heating, the lowest oil coupling. | IEA |
HEAT_HEATPUMP_BASE | 30 | USD/month | Reference monthly cost of a heat pump as a calculation base. | EIA |
ELEC_MULTIPLIER | 0.12 | Share | Coupling of the electricity price to oil, depending on the grid mix. | IEA |
GROC_MULTIPLIER | 0.12 | Share | Pass-through from oil to groceries via fertiliser, transport and processing. | USDA, Eurostat |
HH_EXPONENT | 0.75 | Exponent | Scaling exponent: costs grow with household size to the power of 0.75, not linearly. | Eurostat |
Choke-Point Surcharges
When a key shipping route is blocked, risk rises. The model adds these surcharges per category, capped at plus 60 percent.
| Route | Fuel | Electricity | Heating | Groceries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz | +20 % | +10 % | +15 % | +6 % |
| Bab el-Mandeb | +4 % | +1 % | +2 % | +8 % |
| Suez | +2 % | +1 % | +1 % | +6 % |
ROUTE_CAP: the sum of choke-point surcharges per category is capped at plus 60 percent.
Realistic-Capture Model
Saving tips do not work at a hundred percent in reality. Three factors lower the theoretical saving to an honest figure.
| Parameter | Value | Meaning | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
ADOPTION | 0.55 | Share of days on which a saving tip is applied consistently. | IEA |
PERSISTENCE | 0.65 | Remaining effect after six months, after which the impact fades. | ACEEE |
REBOUND_RETENTION | 0.85 | Remaining effect after the rebound effect is deducted. | ACEEE, Stanford |
REALISTIC_CAPTURE | 0.30 | Product of the three factors: the realistic share of the theoretical saving. | IEA, ACEEE, Stanford |
Download and Use
The complete parameter table as CSV, free to use with attribution.
The data is free to use, including commercially. We ask for attribution: globaloilshock.com, with a link to this page. That keeps it traceable for readers where the numbers come from.
Data as of 2026-05-23. The pass-through coefficients are reviewed quarterly against new publications, the choke-point surcharges when markets change materially.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where do these numbers come from?
Every coefficient is calibrated against publications by established institutions: IEA, EIA, ADAC, USDA, Eurostat and others. The source is in every table row. The full source documentation is on our data-sources page.
Why do the values differ from other calculators?
Pass-through is not a law of nature, it is an empirical estimate with a range. We calibrate deliberately conservatively and document every value openly so anyone can check the assumptions. Other models make other, equally defensible assumptions.
May I reuse the CSV data?
Yes. The data is free to use, including commercially. We only ask for attribution with a link to this page.
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