Why we use only established institutions

Data quality arises not from many sources, but from the right ones. Nine institutions, each with a clear role in our model.

When building an energy cost calculator, the temptation is great to link as many sources as possible to create the impression of scientific depth. We chose the opposite: we use exactly the nine institutions that are methodologically clean and internationally recognized for our four categories (fuel, heating, electricity, groceries). Any additional source would have to justify its inclusion rather than its omission.

The selection follows four criteria: First, data must be publicly and freely accessible, otherwise transparency is impossible. Second, the institution must publish a long-term data series (at least 10 years) so that we can robustly calibrate pass-through statistics. Third, the methodological documentation must be public so we can trace how the data was collected. Fourth, the source must be considered a standard reference in the literature so that cross-validation is possible.

These four criteria filter the global pool of energy data sources down to about 30 to 50 institutional candidates. Of these, the nine documented here fully cover our four categories. More sources would create redundancy without new information. In case of conflicts between our sources (e.g., when IEA and EIA show different heating pass-through values), we examine the methodological differences and document our decision in a code comment.

How we translate sources into our coefficients →

How these sources feed into the actual calculation is shown in the pass-through effect.

IEA

International Energy Agency

The International Energy Agency in Paris has been the central reference point for global energy statistics and research since 1974. Founded in response to the first oil crisis, it represents 31 member countries today and publishes the annual World Energy Outlook as the industry reference.

What we use

We use IEA publications for our global heating pass-through factors (1.1% per USD Brent), for the adoption-persistence values (55% and 65%) in the Realistic-Capture model, and for market context in Brent price movements. IEA methodology is considered methodologically conservative and is cited as a gold standard by central banks and energy regulators.

Status: Latest source status: World Energy Outlook 2025 (October 2025), Oil Market Report (monthly).

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EIA

U.S. Energy Information Administration

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy. It publishes the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the Short-Term Energy Outlook and detailed electricity market models. EIA data are methodologically well documented and publicly free.

What we use

We use the EIA as one of five independent live Brent price sources (via the EIA API with 10-minute refresh). For our electricity pass-through factor (0.3%), we reference EIA studies on fuel-mix sensitivities in U.S. electricity markets. We also use the EIA Household Energy Consumption Survey as a benchmark for typical household energy consumption.

Status: Latest status: Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2026, Household Energy Consumption Survey 2024.

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ACEEE

American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy is a non-profit research organization that has been studying energy efficiency since 1980. Its persistence studies are the most empirically robust data set on the question of how long energy-saving measures actually take effect.

What we use

We use the ACEEE Persistence of Energy Savings studies (2018, 2022, 2024) for the persistence value (65%) in our Realistic-Capture model. ACEEE systematically documents how energy-saving effects fade over 6, 12, 24 and 60 months. Our 65% assumption is the median value from the 6-month study, which is relevant for household tips.

Status: Latest status: Persistence of Energy Savings Report 2024.

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ADAC

Allgemeiner Deutscher Automobil-Club

The Allgemeiner Deutscher Automobil-Club, with over 21 million members, is the largest motoring association in Europe. Its fuel price monitor records daily fuel prices at German service stations and has been the reference source for DACH fuel market analyses since 2007.

What we use

We use the ADAC fuel price statistics for our fuel pass-through factor (0.7%) in the DACH region. We also use them for heating oil pass-through, as the ADAC has systematically recorded heating oil prices since 2018. ADAC data are particularly valuable because they cover daily values over more than 18 years, enabling robust pass-through estimates.

Status: Latest status: ADAC fuel price monitor May 2026.

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TCS

Touring Club Schweiz

The Touring Club Schweiz is the Swiss counterpart of the ADAC. With approximately 1.5 million members, it has recorded fuel and heating oil prices in Switzerland for decades. TCS data are important because Switzerland has its own pass-through dynamics due to its tax rates and market structure.

What we use

We use TCS data for the Switzerland-specific country calibration in our COUNTRY_SOURCES map. The CH country factor (0.9) is based on a comparison of TCS fuel prices with Brent movements over the past ten years. We also use TCS for CH heating oil data as a secondary source.

Status: Latest status: TCS fuel price statistics Q1 2026.

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BFE

Bundesamt für Energie (Schweiz)

The Swiss Federal Office of Energy in Bern is the statistical authority for energy data in Switzerland. It publishes the Swiss energy statistics annually with detailed consumption data per household type, energy source and region.

What we use

We use the BFE energy statistics for the Swiss household benchmarks (typical consumption per number of persons and heating type) and for the CH pass-through calibration. BFE data are methodologically conservative and are cited as a reference by Swiss energy providers and regulators.

Status: Latest status: Swiss overall energy statistics 2024 (published July 2025).

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USDA

U.S. Department of Agriculture

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is the federal agricultural authority of the USA. Its Economic Research Service publishes quarterly Food Price Outlook reports with detailed pass-through analyses between commodity prices (including oil) and food prices.

What we use

We use USDA studies for our food pass-through factor (0.4%) and for the time-lag estimate (3 to 9 months). The USDA systematically documents how crude oil price movements affect end consumer prices through fertilizers, transport, processing and packaging. The GROC multiplier 0.12 (Oil-to-Grocery pass-through 10 to 12%) comes from aggregated USDA studies.

Status: Latest status: Food Price Outlook April 2026, ERS Annual Report 2024.

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FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, based in Rome, publishes the FAO Food Price Index, which has been the most important global reference for food prices since 1990. FAO methodology is internationally harmonized and enables cross-country pass-through studies.

What we use

We use the FAO Food Price Index to validate our USDA-based food pass-through values and for the time-lag estimates (3 to 9 months, median 6 months). We also use it for the global plausibility check: when USDA and FAO show different values, we investigate the methodological differences.

Status: Latest status: FAO Food Price Index April 2026, FAO Outlook 2025.

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Eurostat

Statistisches Amt der Europäischen Union

Eurostat is the statistical office of the European Union, based in Luxembourg. It harmonizes data from all 27 member states into consistent EU-wide statistics. For energy consumption, commuting distances and household demographics, Eurostat is the gold source for EU-wide calculations.

What we use

We use Eurostat for our EU commuter averages (20 to 50 km per day depending on country), for household size distributions (1-person households 33%, 2-person 30%, 3+ person 37% in the EU average), and for regional consumption data as the basis for country factors. Eurostat is our primary fallback source when country sources change.

Status: Latest status: Eurostat Energy Balances 2024, Population Statistics 2025.

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Update frequency of our source maintenance

Live data every 10 minutes, methodology factors quarterly, country sources annually. Here is the full update routine.

WhatHow oftenSources
Brent live price every 10 minutes 5 APIs (Yahoo Q1/Q2, Stooq, EIA, TwelveData)
News ticker every 30 minutes RSS (oilprice, Reuters, DW, BBC)
Pass-through coefficients quarterly IEA, ACEEE, USDA updates
Country sources annually Per country institution-specific
Methodology page on change Git version history

The live Brent source is robust through redundant providers: when Yahoo does not respond, Stooq takes over automatically, then EIA, then TwelveData. This prevents a single failed API from blocking the calculator. The news ticker has a similar fallback: when an RSS feed does not respond, it is retried at the next refresh.

In the quarterly review of pass-through coefficients, we check all new publications since the last review. When a study causes our values to deviate by more than 0.1 percentage points, we update the code and document the justification in the version history. This prevents silent drift without forcing us to change the calculator with every minor update.

Where our sources reach their limits →

What the data still cannot capture is listed honestly in the limitations.

Frequently asked questions about our data sources

The questions we are asked most often about our sources.

Why not more sources?

More sources do not automatically mean better data. We use the nine institutions because they provide the methodologically cleanest studies for the respective category (fuel, heating, electricity, groceries). More sources would lead to data conflicts without measurably improving quality. We check quarterly whether new relevant publications have appeared and selectively incorporate them into our coefficient review.

How often do you check the validity of your sources?

We perform a quarterly review of the pass-through factors against current IEA, ACEEE and USDA publications. Country sources are reviewed annually. Live data (Brent price, news) is updated every 10 minutes and every 30 minutes respectively. The methodology page is versioned with every model update. The last comprehensive source review took place on 2026-05-13.

What happens when a source goes offline?

Brent prices have a multi-source failover: if Yahoo does not respond, Stooq takes over, then EIA, then TwelveData. For academic sources (IEA, ACEEE, USDA), studies are archived as PDF, the coefficients remain valid even if the original URL is temporarily unavailable. For country sources, we fall back to the respective Eurostat or national statistical authority as a secondary source.

Are the source links public for verification?

Yes, all nine institutions publish their studies publicly and free of charge. The direct URLs to each institution are listed in this sub-page. Specific study references (e.g., "ACEEE Persistence Report 2024") can be named on request. Send an email to press@globaloilshock.com for detailed source references.

Where do I find the exact studies?

In our methodology repository (available on request), all studies are stored with title, author, publication year and DOI. The most important references are: IEA World Energy Outlook (annual, 2020 to 2025), ACEEE Persistence of Energy Savings (2018, 2022, 2024), USDA Economic Research Service Food Price Studies (quarterly), ADAC Fuel Price Monitor (monthly), Swiss Federal Statistical Office Energy Consumption Statistics (annual).

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