International Energy Agency
Role: Global energy outlooks, pass-through studies, World Energy Outlook
What we use: Pass-through factors, adoption-persistence values, Brent market context
Visit original source →1. Data sources
We exclusively use data from established institutions. Not a single value is invented, every claim is attributed to a named primary source.
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Role: US Brent data, Household Energy Outlook, consumer pass-through studies
What we use: Live Brent prices (one of 5 sources), Household Energy benchmarks
Visit original source →American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
Role: Realistic-Capture model, persistence studies on energy savings
What we use: Adoption 55%, Persistence 65% after 6 months (Realistic-Capture formula)
Visit original source →Allgemeiner Deutscher Automobil-Club
Role: Fuel pass-through data DACH region, heating oil consumer studies
What we use: Fuel coefficient 0.7%, heating oil coefficient 1.1% (DACH market)
Visit original source →Touring Club Schweiz
Role: Switzerland-specific fuel and heating oil data
What we use: CH country calibration in Wizard (COUNTRY_SOURCES map)
Visit original source →Bundesamt für Energie (Schweiz)
Role: Swiss energy statistics, consumption benchmarks
What we use: CH heating oil market, Swiss pass-through calibration
Visit original source →U.S. Department of Agriculture
Role: Food pass-through studies, Food Price Index research
What we use: GROC multiplier 0.12 (Oil-to-Grocery pass-through 10-12%)
Visit original source →Food and Agriculture Organization
Role: Global food price indices, pass-through research
What we use: Food pass-through range, time-lag studies (3-9 months)
Visit original source →Statistisches Amt der Europäischen Union
Role: EU energy and consumer statistics, commuter averages
What we use: EU commuter average 20-50 km/day, regional consumption data
Visit original source →Brent price live from 5 independent sources →
2. Pass-Through Effect
A Brent price increase does not translate 1:1 into your additional costs. We use category-specific pass-through factors, based on publications from IEA, ACEEE, ADAC and USDA.
Formula
Additional cost = Brent-Delta × Coefficient(category) × Country-factor × Household-size
Pass-through factors per 1 USD Brent increase
Values per 1 USD Brent increase per month. Sources: ADAC (Fuel, DACH region), IEA (Heating, global), USDA (Groceries, with 3-9 months time lag).
3. Realistic-Capture Model
Saving tips do not work 100% as in a lab. Our model shows realistic 30% of the theoretical maximum.
30% instead of lab value
If a saving tip theoretically saves 25% energy, we show realistic 7.5% (30% of 25%). Justification in three components:
55%
Adoption: 55%
Tip is consistently applied on about 55% of days. Tiny-Habits realism (BJ Fogg, Stanford).
65%
Persistence: 65%
Effect after 6 months reduced to 65% of initial effect. ACEEE persistence studies.
−15%
Rebound: 15% loss
Efficiency gains are partially offset by increased usage (Stanford rebound effect).
0.55 × 0.65 × 0.85 = 0.304 → 30% realistic capture, range ±20% for honest communication of uncertainty.
4. Country Calibration
For each country we reference national institutions. UK users see AA and DESNZ. US users see AAA and US DOE. Sources are audience-aware.
Local institutions instead of DE-only
In our wizard, each country has its own source list. So a US user sees AAA, US DOE and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A UK user sees AA and DESNZ. No "ADAC for everyone".
| Country | Sources |
|---|---|
| DE Germany | ADAC, BMWK, IEA, Statistisches Bundesamt, Eurostat |
| AT Austria | ÖAMTC, BMK, IEA, Statistik Austria, Eurostat |
| CH Switzerland | TCS, BFE, IEA, Bundesamt für Statistik, Eurostat |
| GB United Kingdom | AA, DESNZ, IEA, Office for National Statistics |
| US USA | AAA, US DOE, EIA, US Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| FR France | ADEME, RTE, IEA, INSEE, Eurostat |
| ES Spain | IDAE, MITECO, IEA, INE, Eurostat |
| IT Italy | ACI, ENEA, IEA, ISTAT, Eurostat |
| NL Netherlands | ANWB, RVO, IEA, CBS, Eurostat |
| BE Belgium | Touring, FOD Energie, IEA, Statbel, Eurostat |
Three geopolitical choke points directly influence Brent: Hormuz (20% of global oil traffic), Bab el-Mandeb and Suez. An escalation at any point raises the USD risk premium by 5-25 USD per barrel. Strait of Hormuz as choke point of global oil logistics →
All country profiles with national saving levers and risk scenarios →
5. What our calculator cannot do
Pratfall mandatory. Six explicit limitations, because honest boundaries build more trust than perfect promises.
No individual forecast
We calculate additional costs for a typical household of your size and country. We know neither your specific car, heating efficiency, nor your provider. Personal deviations can be ±20%.
No financial or investment advice
Our calculations are not recommendations for trading, hedging, or energy contract changes. For contract decisions, please consult independent energy advisors.
No political statement
We make no normative judgment on sanctions or energy transition policies. We show the economic mechanics of pass-through, not whether a price increase is justified.
No provider-specific model
Local electricity and heating oil contracts vary widely. We use national consumer averages. Your specific bill may be higher or lower.
Time lag for groceries
Brent price increases affect groceries with a 3-9 month delay. Our model shows the long-term effect, not today's spot price at the shelf.
Realistic-Capture instead of lab value
Saving tips have theoretically higher values (e.g., 25% with perfect application). We show realistic 30% of maximum (Adoption × Persistence × without Rebound), because people don't apply measures perfectly every day.
6. Update Cadence
Brent prices live, pass-through factors quarterly, country sources annually. This page is versioned with every methodology update.
| What | How often | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Live Brent price | every 10 minutes | 5 APIs (Yahoo Q1/Q2, Stooq, EIA, TwelveData) |
| News ticker | every 30 minutes | RSS (oilprice, Reuters, DW, BBC) |
| Pass-through coefficients | quarterly review | IEA, ACEEE, USDA-Updates |
| Country sources | annually | Pro Land institutionsspezifisch |
| Methodology page | on change | Git-Versions-History |
Frequently Asked Questions
What we are asked most often about the methodology.
How accurate are the calculated additional costs?
We show a range of ±20% around the mean. That means: about 30% of households experience more, 30% less, 40% are in the middle. The ±20% is hardcoded as RANGE_BAND and based on publications from IEA and ACEEE on confidence intervals in pass-through models.
Why exactly these pass-through factors?
Fuel 0.7%, Heating 1.1%, Electricity 0.3% and Groceries 0.4% per 1 USD Brent increase per month are empirically calibrated. Sources: ADAC for fuel pass-through in DACH region, IEA for heating globally, USDA for groceries with 3-9 month time lag, EIA for electricity. Values are reviewed quarterly against updates.
What does Realistic-Capture 30% mean?
If a saving tip theoretically saves 25% energy, we show a realistic 30% of that, meaning 7.5%. Reasoning: People don't apply measures perfectly every day (Adoption 55%), effect fades after 6 months (Persistence 65%), and efficiency gains are partially offset by increased usage (Rebound 15%). 0.55 × 0.65 × 0.85 equals 0.30.
Do you sell my data?
No. The calculator runs entirely in the browser, no login, no personal data stored. We use Google Analytics 4 with IP anonymization, opt-in via cookie banner. Newsletter is double opt-in with one-click unsubscribe. Full details in our privacy policy.
Why no individual forecast?
We don't know your specific car, heating efficiency or provider. We calculate additional costs for a typical household of your size and country. Personal deviations can be ±20%, which is why we also show the range.
How often are sources updated?
Brent price live every 10 minutes from 5 independent APIs (Yahoo Q1/Q2, Stooq, EIA, TwelveData). News ticker every 30 minutes. Pass-through factors quarterly against IEA/ACEEE/USDA updates. Country-specific sources annually. This methodology page is versioned with every model update.
Is this investment or financial advice?
No. We don't evaluate trading strategies, hedging options or specific energy contracts. Our calculation is an estimate of additional costs in a hypothetical Brent scenario, not a recommendation for or against any specific decision. For contract decisions, consult independent energy advisors.
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