1. What were the biggest oil supply disruptions in history?
The 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz tops the list: world oil supply fell by 10.1 mb/d in March 2026, to 97 mb/d, which the IEA's Oil Market Report of April 2026 called “the largest disruption in history”. Before 2026, the IEA's own chart of major oil supply disruptions was led by the 1978–79 Iranian revolution, with a gross peak loss of 5.6 mb/d. The 1973–74 Arab oil embargo and the 1990–91 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait follow at 4.3 mb/d each, and the outbreak of the Iran–Iraq war in 1980 at 4.1 mb/d (IEA, Energy Supply Security 2014). Further down the same chart come Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and the outage in Libya in 2011, at 1.5 mb/d each, and Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in 2008 at 1.3 mb/d.
- 1973/744.3
- 1978/795.6
- 1980/814.1
- 1990/914.3
- 20221.0
- 202610.1
1973 to 1990: largest gross loss per the IEA (2014). 2022: Russian output actually shut in during April 2022 (IEA). 2026: fall in world supply in March 2026 (IEA Oil Market Report, April 2026); the World Bank places it at “about 10 mb/d” under the same IEA definition. 2007–08 had no outage.
If you set the March 2026 loss against these bars, it is 2.3 times the 1973 figure and 1.8 times that of the Iranian revolution (own calculation: 10.1 ÷ 4.3 and 10.1 ÷ 5.6). And it kept growing: by April, world supply stood 12.8 mb/d below February, and output from the Gulf countries affected by the closure was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels (IEA, 13 May 2026). The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) counts crude oil only, from six Gulf producers, and put April shut-ins at 10.5 mb/d (press release, 12 May 2026). The World Bank, which uses the IEA's definition, put the March loss at about 10 mb/d in its Commodity Markets Outlook of April 2026 and called it “the largest oil supply shock on record”.
The 2007–08 price spike has no bar, because no oil was lost; 2022 shows the nearly 1 mb/d of Russian output actually shut in during April 2022 (IEA). What turns a disruption into an oil shock is explained in What is an oil shock?, and why one narrow waterway matters so much in Strait of Hormuz explained.
2. How do the oil shocks of 1973, 1979, 1990, 2008, 2022 and 2026 compare?
Side by side, 2026 has the largest supply loss and the largest emergency stock release of the seven, while its price rise, a factor of 1.94 for Brent spot from 27 February to 7 April 2026 (own calculation from EIA data), is smaller than the near-quadrupling of 1973–74, from $2.90 to $11.65 a barrel, reported by Federal Reserve History.
| Shock and period | Trigger | Supply loss | Price before → peak | IEA response | US recession (NBER) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973–74 Arab oil embargoOct 1973 to Mar 1974 | Yom Kippur War; Arab producers (OAPEC) impose an embargo and cut output | 4.3 mb/d (IEA) | $2.90 → $11.65 a barrel (Jan 1974), benchmark not named¹ | none, the IEA was only founded in Nov 1974 | Nov 1973 to Mar 1975 |
| 1978–79 Iranian revolutionNov 1978 to Apr 1979 | strikes and revolution in Iran cut output; fear-driven buying and hoarding amplify the rise | 5.6 mb/d (IEA) | WTI $14.85 (Jan 1979) → $39.50 (Apr–Jul 1980), monthly² | no collective release; the US pledged to the IEA to cut consumption by up to 5% | Jan to Jul 1980 |
| 1980 start of the Iran–Iraq warOct 1980 to Jan 1981 | fighting halts output in Iran and Iraq; other producers replace it within months | 4.1 mb/d (IEA) | part of the wave that began in 1979; +45% from Nov 1980 to Feb 1981³ | none | Jul 1981 to Nov 1982 |
| 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait2 Aug 1990 to 28 Feb 1991 | Iraqi and Kuwaiti output lost; a short spike that collapsed when the air war began | 4.3 mb/d (IEA) | WTI $21.59 (1 Aug 1990) → $41.07 (11 Oct 1990); Brent $19.93 → $41.45 (27 Sep 1990) | first collective action on 17 Jan 1991, plan of 2.5 mb/d | Jul 1990 to Mar 1991 (began before the invasion) |
| 2007–08 price spikeFeb 2007 to Jul 2008 | strong demand (China among others) against flat supply, no supply outage | no outage (demand shock) | WTI $54.51 (Jan 2007 average) → $145.31 (3 Jul 2008); Brent $143.95 | none | Dec 2007 to Jun 2009 |
| 2022 Russian invasion of Ukrainefrom 24 Feb 2022 | feared loss of Russian supply, sanctions; diesel and gasoil hit hardest | about 1 mb/d actual (Apr 2022); 3 mb/d feared | Brent $99.29 (23 Feb 2022) → $133.18 (8 Mar 2022) | two actions, 182.7 million barrels in total | none |
| 2026 Iran war and Hormuz closurefrom 28 Feb 2026, ongoing | strikes on Iran, tanker traffic through Hormuz halts; middle distillates and jet fuel hit hardest | 10.1 mb/d in March 2026; 12.8 mb/d by April (IEA)⁴ | Brent $71.32 (27 Feb 2026) → $138.21 (7 Apr 2026); $114.89 on 22 Sep 2026⁵ | 426 million barrels, the largest release in its history | none declared so far (the NBER dates with a lag) |
Supply loss 1973 to 1990: largest gross loss per the IEA (Energy Supply Security 2014, Fig. 1.6). Prices before 1986 come from different US series, from 1986 EIA spot prices (Brent = physical spot). ¹ Federal Reserve History, “Oil Shock of 1973–74”. ² FRED WTI series WTISPLC (monthly). ³ J. D. Hamilton, “Historical Oil Shocks” (2011), crude oil producer price index. ⁴ IEA Oil Market Reports April and May 2026: fall in world supply against February; Gulf output was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels in April. ⁵ EIA spot price; the IEA gives a Dated Brent high of $144, the futures contract peaked at $118 on 29 Apr 2026 (EIA). A second US recession followed in 1981–82 (Jul 1981 to Nov 1982).
Three things to keep in mind when you read the table:
- Prices are not on one benchmark. Before 1986 they come from different US series, and the 1973 figures from Federal Reserve History do not name one; later values are EIA spot prices. On those, the rise from the last pre-crisis value to the peak was a factor of 2.08 for Brent in 1990, 2.67 for WTI in 2007–08 (from the January 2007 average), 1.34 for Brent in 2022 and 1.94 in 2026 (own calculation). No figure is adjusted for inflation, and we do not rank shocks by dollar level: no primary source gives real peaks for all seven.
- One method for 1973 to 2008. The economist James D. Hamilton measured each episode the same way: +51% from November 1973 to February 1974, +57% from May 1979 to January 1980, +45% from November 1980 to February 1981, +93% from August to October 1990 and +145% from February 2007 to June 2008. He used the crude oil producer price index for 1973 to 1981 and monthly WTI after that. His series ends in 2008.
- Not every shock is a supply shock. The 2007–08 spike had no outage behind it: Hamilton points to strong demand, with China alone raising its consumption by 840,000 barrels a day between 2005 and 2007, while world production stopped growing after 2005. In 2022 the loss that actually happened was small: nearly 1 mb/d in April, about 1.0% of world supply (own calculation: 1 ÷ 98.8 mb/d of March 2022 supply, IEA figures).
3. Is the 2026 oil shock worse than 1973?
It depends on the yardstick you use: on volume the IEA's answer is yes, since it wrote on 20 March 2026 that “the volume of fuel supply offline now is higher than the supply loss during the oil shock of 1973 that led to the IEA's creation and any disruption since then”, but on price 1973 was the sharper shock. Five yardsticks side by side:
- Volume: 10.1 mb/d in March 2026 against 4.3 mb/d in 1973–74 (IEA), 2.3 times as much (own calculation).
- Share of world supply: 9.4% in March and 11.9% in April 2026 (own calculation: 10.1 ÷ 107.1 and 12.8 ÷ 107.9 mb/d of February supply, IEA figures). For 1973, Hamilton puts the fall in Arab OPEC output at 4.4 mb/d, or 7.5% of world output. The measures differ, but 2026 is larger on both.
- Price: in 1973–74 oil went from $2.90 before the embargo to $11.65 in January 1974 (Federal Reserve History), a factor of 4.02 (own calculation). In 2026, Brent spot rose 94%, from $71.32 on 27 February to $138.21 on 7 April (EIA, own calculation); the IEA reports a Dated Brent high of $144, and front-month Brent futures peaked at $118 on 29 April (EIA). On the Federal Reserve History figures, 1973 was the sharper price shock; Hamilton's measure, based on US prices that were under price controls at the time, shows +51% from November 1973 to February 1974.
- Kind of shock: in 1973 Arab producers organised in OAPEC imposed an embargo and cut output (see oil embargo history since 1973). In 2026, after the United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on 28 February (IEA), the flow of crude and refined products out of the Gulf was cut, and jet fuel and distillate prices rose significantly more than gasoline (EIA, 7 April 2026), as the diesel and jet fuel cracks on our crack spread chart show.
- Duration: the 1973 embargo was officially lifted in March 1974 (Federal Reserve History). The 2026 disruption is ongoing: Gulf oil exports were estimated at around 13 mb/d in August, “nearly half their pre-war level” (IEA, 11 September 2026), and Brent spot was still at $114.89 on 22 September 2026 (EIA).
4. Did every oil shock bring a US recession?
Most shocks overlapped with one, but not all: the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which dates US business cycles, recorded recessions around the shocks of 1973–74, 1979–80, 1990–91 and 2007–08, none around 2022, and it has not declared one for 2026. The dates, peak to trough:
- 1973–74 embargo: November 1973 to March 1975, 16 months.
- 1978–79 Iranian revolution: January to July 1980, six months; then July 1981 to November 1982, another 16 months, after the Iran–Iraq war shock.
- 1990–91 invasion of Kuwait: July 1990 to March 1991, eight months. The NBER puts the peak in July 1990, before Iraq invaded Kuwait in August, so the downturn had begun before the oil shock (own reading of the dates).
- 2007–08 price spike: December 2007 to June 2009, 18 months.
- 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine: no recession; the last one the NBER recorded ran from February to April 2020.
- 2026 Hormuz closure: none declared so far.
If you are asking whether the US is in a recession now, read that last line with care. The NBER dates turning points long after the fact: it announced the December 2007 peak only on 1 December 2008, almost a year later. Its most recent announcement, on 19 July 2021, dated the April 2020 trough. The lack of an announcement for 2026 is therefore not proof that the US economy has avoided a recession.
5. What did governments do, from 1973 ration books to the 2026 stock release?
The emergency toolbox exists because of 1973: the oil shock led to the IEA's creation in 1974, and its members took their first collective stock action in January 1991, so there was none in 1973, 1979, 1980 or 2008 (IEA). In the 1970s, households felt the shocks more directly. The United States had price controls and gasoline shortages in 1973–74 and again in 1979, while 1990 and 2008 brought neither (Hamilton). In the UK, motor fuel ration books were issued in November 1973 but never used, according to the Imperial War Museums.
Since 1991 the IEA has acted collectively in 2005, 2011, twice in 2022 and in 2026. The 2026 action is the largest in its history: 400 million barrels agreed on 11 March 2026, confirmed on 19 March at 426 million barrels. The United States contributed 172.2 million barrels from public stocks and the UK 14.0 million from industry stocks (IEA, 19 March 2026). Country-by-country details are on IEA oil stock release 2026, and every release since the first one on Emergency oil releases since 1991.
The IEA itself called the release a “significant and welcome buffer” but, without a swift end to the conflict, “a stop-gap measure” (Oil Market Report, 12 March 2026). What a reopening of Hormuz would mean for gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices is covered on Hormuz reopening and fuel prices.
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How to cite: Global Oil Shock (Jörg Dässler), “Oil Shocks Compared: Is 2026 Worse Than 1973?”, as of 24 Sep 2026, https://globaloilshock.com/en/data/oil-shocks-compared/