Oil crisis 2026: where the oil is stuck and what it costs you
65 straits, pipelines and ports with their status, how things have developed since January, plus heating oil prices and gas storage by country. Every figure with date and source.
+76% distance. According to the EIA the voyage round the Cape takes almost 35 days instead of 19. More days means more charter, fuel and insurance.
Nautical miles calculated schematically (Eurostat SeaRoute), voyage time: U.S. EIA
Statusclosedseverely restricteddisrupteddetour in userunning
TypeShipping routePipelineStraitPortGas and LNG
MovementTraffic runningclosed
Today, 17/09/2026
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
13×dearer than a year ago: chartering a supertanker from the Gulf to ChinaBaltic Exchange TD3C, week 36/2026 (around USD 704,000 per day) against 05/09/2025 (USD 53,783)
514ships are stuck in the Persian GulfKpler, 10/09/2026
7.5–10%of a ship's value is what war risk insurance costs for high-risk voyages, previously around 0.25%AXS Marine, weekly report week 35/2026
> $200was the price of a barrel (159 litres) of diesel on the US wholesale market in early September, that is over 1.25 dollars per litre before tax: 94% more than before the warIEA Oil Market Report, September 2026
19 → 35days from the Gulf to Rotterdam: via Suez against round the CapeU.S. EIA, Today in Energy (typical voyage time)
All 65 points, sources and timeline 2026
Situation at 65 oil chokepoints, pipelines and ports on
Effectively closed to most merchant ships. The Revolutionary Guards declared the strait closed on 11/07, and since 14/07 the USA has been blockading Iranian ports and escorting ships. How much oil is getting through is disputed. Now: Kpler: 4 commodity ships on 15/09, no crude oil tankers, 10-day average 18. Before: around 100 ships a day (Lloyd’s List), 20.9 million barrels a day (EIA, first half of 2025). Figures: Kpler, 15/09: 4 ships, no crude oil tankers; UKMTO, mid-September: around 20 escorted transits a day; US official via Axios, 16/09: around 40 ships, 14 million barrels a day; IEA, 11/09: crude oil outages just under 45% including bypass lines. AIS data understate traffic because ships switch off their transponders.
Kpler and Axios via GlobalSecurity 16/09/2026, UKMTO, IEA Oil Market Report 11/09/2026, EIA
Idle since 11/09 after drone hits on pumping stations. It was the most important route for taking Saudi oil past Hormuz to the Red Sea. Now: no flow since 11/09. Before: capacity 7 million barrels a day; around 2 million in August (Al Jazeera), 4 to 5 million before the outage (TIME, Saxo). Figures: US energy secretary Wright: back in service within days; Bloomberg, 16/09: half of it within days; AP, two officials: three to five weeks; Reuters sources: five to six weeks of repairs. Saudi Arabia blames militias close to Iran in Iraq. On 13/09 Baghdad named Maysan province as the launch site. Nobody has claimed responsibility.
OilPrice 15/09/2026, Bloomberg 16/09/2026, AP/PBS, Al Jazeera
Kharg IslandPort and terminal
blockaded
Iran's most important export terminal is under the US blockade. According to the US military, US forces hit three Iranian tankers on 05/09. Now: exports close to zero according to estimates, not independently confirmed. Before: around 1.68 million barrels a day.
Washington Post 05/09/2026, CNN 05/09/2026, Al Jazeera 06/09/2026
YanbuPort and terminal
no crude oil exports
No Saudi crude oil has left Yanbu since 11/09. European cargoes for late September were cancelled. Now: stocks will last another 5 to 7 days according to the market. Before: up to 5 million barrels a day through the pipeline.
OilPrice 15/09/2026
Ras Laffan (Qatar, LNG)Port and terminal
force majeure (LNG)
QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure to early November. Two LNG plants are damaged. Now: 18 cargoes in the first half of 2026 (ICIS). Before: 509 cargoes in the first half of 2025.
Euronews 31/08/2026
Nord Stream 1 and 2 (Baltic Sea)gas pipeline
destroyed and sanctioned
No gas has flowed through either system since the explosions of 26 September 2022. On 18 July 2025 the EU imposed a full transaction ban that also bars maintenance and any future use. Criminal proceedings are under way in Germany, with the first trial set for 26 October 2026 at the Higher Regional Court in Hamburg. Now: no flow, three of the four pipes damaged (as of 17/09/2026). Before: each designed for 55 billion cubic metres a year; Nord Stream 2 was never in commercial operation. Figures: Al Jazeera, 31/08/2026: both systems were destroyed in the explosions; Wikipedia status, 17/09/2026: line B of Nord Stream 2 was left undamaged, repairing the rest estimated at around 500 million dollars; Putin according to TASS, 04/06/2026: the remaining line needs only a decision by the German government; Bundestag, debate 21/05/2026: all parliamentary groups except the AfD rejected a restart. Statements about a restart come mostly from the Russian side or from US investors with an interest of their own and are not independently confirmed. On responsibility there are charges but no verdicts; Ukraine denies involvement.
Council of the EU 18/07/2025, Al Jazeera 02/07 and 31/08/2026, TASS 04/06/2026, German Bundestag 21/05/2026
Yamal-Europe pipeline (via Belarus and Poland)gas pipeline
shut down since 2022
Gazprom halted all flows through the Polish section in May 2022 after Russia imposed sanctions on the operating company. There has been no westward transit since. Poland took over Gazprom's stake in the Polish section in November 2022. Now: no westward transit, record as of 16/09/2026. Before: nominal capacity 33 billion cubic metres a year. No daily flow measurement is available for 2026. The assessment rests on the record at Global Energy Monitor and the absence of reports to the contrary.
Global Energy Monitor, page as of 16/09/2026, Moscow Times 12/05/2022
Houthi forces hold Mokha, Dhubab and the Hanish Islands. No attack on shipping was reported between 24/08 and early September. Now: 202 transits per week (24 to 30/08). Before: 319 per week before the Houthi ban on Saudi ships (20/07), 4.2 million barrels a day. According to Euronews and FDD (14/09) the Houthis also hold the island of Perim. The Yemeni government speaks of temporary losses.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence 03/09/2026, Euronews 14/09/2026, EIA
Ras TanuraPort and terminal
loading, route runs through Hormuz
Loading was ramped up to make up for the loss of Yanbu. The oil has to pass through the closed Strait of Hormuz, however. Now: 12 ships with 22 million barrels (07 to 13/09). Before: normally 6 to 7 ships per week.
Vortexa via GlobalSecurity 16/09/2026
BasraPort and terminal
severely restricted
Exports partly by ship-to-ship transfer at sea off Oman. Iraq speaks of almost pre-war levels, one analyst of around 60%. Now: around 1.75 million barrels a day (Iraq Business News); Iraq as a whole 2.2 to 2.3 million in August (Kpler, Vortexa). Before: 3.4 million barrels a day.
Iraq Business News 05/09/2026, Shafaq News 02/09/2026, Zawya 27/08/2026
Greenstream (Libya to Sicily)gas pipeline
residual flow only
The line from Mellitah to Gela is running at only a fraction of its capacity. Libya's domestic electricity demand takes priority and exports to Italy have fallen to their lowest level in more than twenty years. Now: 2025 average 105 million cubic feet a day, down 22 percent, around 14 percent of capacity. Before: capacity around 775 million cubic feet a day. The figure comes from a report on data from Libya's NOC; a primary source with 2026 figures is missing.
The Rio Times 28/08/2026, MEES 01/05/2026
South Hook LNG, Milford HavenLNG terminal (import)
Qatar terminal without Qatar
South Hook is 67 percent owned by QatarEnergy and was built specifically for Qatari gas. No Qatari cargo has arrived there since 10 April 2026, which was Qatar's last delivery to Europe of any kind. The terminal with the heaviest single dependency is thus the hardest hit. Now: last Qatari delivery to Europe on 10/04/2026, QatarEnergy's force majeure extended to early November 2026. Before: designed for 15.6 million tonnes a year, around 20 percent of British gas demand. How much the terminal has handled from other sources since then has not been made public. The assessment rests on the absence of the main contractual source, not on a reported shutdown.
Cedigaz 23/04/2026, Euronews 31/08/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Suez CanalCanal
disrupted
Open, but with risk. Traffic is below normal levels, though above the year earlier. Now: 290 ships per week (24 to 30/08), 36% below normal. Before: Suez and SUMED together 4.9 million barrels a day.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence 03/09/2026, EIA
Panama CanalCanal
disrupted (drought)
Because of an El Niño drought the canal authority is letting fewer ships through and limiting draught. This has nothing to do with the Middle East conflict. Now: 32 transits a day (canal authority according to Rio Times, from 15/09). Before: 36 a day normally, 2.3 million barrels a day.
Rio Times, DTN 02/09/2026, EIA
SUMED pipelinePipeline
running, supply at risk
Carries oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. With Yanbu out, it is short of Saudi supply. Now: Saudi exports from Sidi Kerir 1.95 million barrels a day (1 to 14/09). Before: capacity 2.5 million barrels a day.
OilPrice 15/09/2026
Kirkuk–CeyhanPipeline
sharply throttled
Running at a low level; the agreement with Turkey was extended by a year on 01/08. Now: 120 to 135 thousand barrels a day (mid-August). Before: around 300 thousand barrels a day in July. Another source cites 750 thousand barrels a day. The figures contradict each other.
Shafaq News 13/08/2026, Al Jazeera 01/08/2026
CPC pipeline to NovorossiyskPipeline
disrupted, recovering
After attacks on tankers in the Black Sea in July, loadings rose sharply again in August. Now: 1.6 million barrels a day in August. Before: 1.32 million barrels a day in July.
Pipeline & Gas Journal 14/09/2026
FujairahPort and terminal
loading, risk of attack
End point of the ADCOP pipeline, already outside Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman. Now: see ADCOP.
Argus
Ust-Luga and PrimorskPort and terminal
loading despite attacks
Ukrainian drones hit Ust-Luga on 14/08 and 01/09. Russia is loading more all the same. Now: Ust-Luga around 700 thousand barrels a day.
Moscow Times 01/09/2026, TT News 15/09/2026
New York HarborPort and terminal
distillate very tight
Pricing point for heating oil in the US Northeast. Distillate stocks on the Central Atlantic coast are far below the five-year average. Now: distillate stocks Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) 9.9 million barrels. Before: 35% below the five-year average.
NYSERDA 04/09/2026
Langeled and the Norwegian export networkgas pipeline
maintenance season, flows reduced
With around a third of EU gas imports, Norway is Europe's largest supplier. The annual maintenance season is running in September 2026, cutting deliveries for several weeks, and that with storage levels low. An exceptional outage is not documented. Now: seasonal maintenance cuts deliveries for several weeks (Gas Outlook, 07/09/2026). Before: pipeline exports 2025: 114.9 billion cubic metres, down 2.3 percent on the 2024 record; normally around 340 million cubic metres a day. A plan from October 2025 cited maintenance outages of 26 million cubic metres a day for September 2026. No confirmation of the actual outages is available.
Gas Outlook 07/09/2026, Argus Media 31/10/2025, Pipeline & Gas Journal January 2026 (Gassco)
Nigeria LNG, Bonny IslandLNG terminal (export)
force majeure, gas shortage
Nigeria LNG is producing but has been under force majeure continuously since 2022 because too little gas arrives from the hinterland. It will only be lifted at 90 percent utilisation. Despite the price rally the company says it serves its existing customers first. Now: utilisation 82 to 83 percent, force majeure still in force (17/09/2026). Before: six trains with 22 million tonnes a year; Train 7 is to raise this to 30 million tonnes by the end of 2027.
Ecofin Agency 17/09/2026
LNG terminal Mukran, RügenLNG terminal (import)
only one unit left
The private terminal off Rügen was Germany's strongest import point in the winter of 2025/26 with 22 terawatt hours, but it now works with one floating unit instead of two. In previous years utilisation was in the low single digits. Now: winter 2025/26: 22 terawatt hours sent out, import growth in 2026 over 70 percent. Before: capacity 412 gigawatt hours a day with two units, utilisation in 2025 only 3 percent. The capacity figure applies to operation with two units; no current operator figure for operation with one unit is available.
ingenieur.de August 2026, zfk 27/03/2025
LNG terminal DunkirkLNG terminal (import)
strike pushes send-out down
France's largest LNG terminal was hit by a nationwide energy strike on 15 September 2026 and send-out collapsed to 4 gigawatt hours a day. The timing catches Europe in the middle of filling its storage. Now: around 476 gigawatt hours a day below normal on 15/09/2026; Fos-sur-Mer and Montoir ran normally. Before: capacity 9.55 million tonnes a year, which is 13 billion cubic metres. Whether the strike continues beyond 15/09/2026 is not confirmed.
Reuters via Global Banking and Finance 15/09/2026, France 24 15/09/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Montoir is running normally in technical terms. The site does, however, hold a long-term contract for 3 million tonnes of Qatari gas a year until 2035 that has not been served since the Ras Laffan outage. As a substitute, Montoir was one of the main arrival ports for Russian Yamal LNG in January 2026. Now: operating normally on 15/09/2026; six cargoes from Yamal in January 2026. Before: capacity 9.84 million tonnes a year, bookings fully allocated until 2035. That the Qatari contract is not currently being served follows from QatarEnergy's force majeure. No terminal-specific confirmation is available.
Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, Reuters 15/09/2026, gCaptain 04/02/2026
Keystone pipeline system (Hardisty to Cushing and Port Arthur)Pipeline
throttled after a leak
The system brings Canadian heavy crude to Cushing and the US Gulf Coast. Since the pipe rupture in North Dakota in April 2025 it has been running under regulatory pressure restrictions and therefore below nominal capacity. The operator expects them to be lifted in stages only between the end of 2026 and 2027. Now: second quarter of 2026: around 596,000 barrels a day, operating factor 93 percent. Before: nominal capacity 700,000 barrels a day. No new leak is documented for 2026. The throttling goes back to the incident of April 2025, in which around 3,500 barrels escaped.
South Bow quarterly report 05/08/2026, PHMSA, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Cape of Good HopeShipping route
alternative route in use
Detour around Africa for ships avoiding the Red Sea. Around ten days longer than via Suez. Now: no current September figure published. Before: 9.1 million barrels a day (first half of 2025).
U.S. EIA (volumes first half of 2025, typical voyage time), Anadolu
Habshan–Fujairah (ADCOP)Pipeline
bypass running, risk of attack
The most important bypass of Hormuz still running. Fujairah was hit by drones in March and May. Now: 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels a day (May). Before: nominal capacity 1.5 million barrels a day.
Argus, US News 04/05/2026
Arctic LNG 2, Gydan (Russia)LNG terminal (export)
sanctioned, workaround running
The project has been under US blocking sanctions since November 2023 but has been exporting systematically to China since August 2025. Novatek runs a fleet of its own for this, and volumes are growing now that the world market can absorb them after Qatar's outage. Now: 2026 to 25/08: 2.3 million tonnes in 31 deliveries to Beihai in China, a fleet of at least 18 ships. Before: three trains of 6 million tonnes planned, 19.8 million tonnes a year in total. How many trains produce permanently is not independently confirmed. The foreign shareholders have had their stakes frozen since December 2023.
Barents Observer 25/08/2026, project figures via Wikipedia 17/09/2026
LNG terminal ZeebruggeLNG terminal (import)
hub for Russian LNG
Zeebrugge is Europe's largest transshipment point for Russian LNG and took six Yamal cargoes in January 2026. Transshipment for onward carriage to third countries is banned in EU ports, while imports for consumption in the EU remain allowed until January 2027. Now: January 2026: six cargoes from Yamal, no technical disruption reported. Before: regasification capacity 9 billion cubic metres a year.
Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, gCaptain 04/02/2026, Barents Observer 25/08/2026
Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline (ESPO) to KozminoPipeline
running at full load, China's replacement barrels
Since the loss of Hormuz, Russia's Pacific route has been the key marginal barrel for Chinese and Indian refineries. Loadings at Kozmino are steady at around 1 million barrels a day. The sanctions hit tankers and trading chains above all, not the line. Now: Kozmino loading plan for September 2026: 4.0 million tonnes, around 2 percent less per day than in August. Before: main line designed for 1.6 million barrels a day, length 4,857 kilometres. Figures: Reuters, 2026: exports from Kozmino up 6 percent in seven months, China accounts for 83 percent of purchases, India 16; CREA, July 2026: ESPO makes up 74 percent of the Russian crude discharged in China, against 62 the month before; CREA, July 2026: around 62 percent of Russian seaborne crude travels on sanctioned shadow fleet tankers. A daily volume for the line alone, separate from the port loadings, is not available.
Reuters via MarineLink September 2026, Reuters via OilPrice 2026, CREA July 2026
Trans Mountain pipeline with expansionPipeline
running at full load, redirected to Asia
TMX brings crude oil from Alberta to the Pacific coast near Vancouver and has been running at full capacity for the first time since June 2026. Around two thirds of the cargoes go to Asia, with China the largest buyer. The next capacity step was brought forward because of the crisis. Now: second quarter of 2026: 840,000 barrels a day, 94 percent utilisation, 82 tankers in the quarter. Before: operating capacity 890,000 barrels a day; 703,000 barrels a day in the same quarter a year earlier. Figures: Trans Mountain, quarterly report 2026: 510,000 barrels a day through the Westridge terminal, 65 percent of tankers bound for Asia; Bloomberg, September 2026: an extra 10 percent of capacity by the end of 2026 instead of 2027 as planned.
Trans Mountain quarterly report Q2 2026, Bloomberg via EnergyConnects September 2026, Reuters 11/06/2026
Goreh-Jask pipeline to the Gulf of OmanPipeline
bypass in use, low throughput
Iran uses this line to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and loads at the Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman. Loadings have been documented again since March 2026, but on a small scale and with long gaps. Now: first recorded exports from Jask in March 2026 at 64,600 barrels a day, at least six tanker deliveries between March and July. Before: designed for 300,000 barrels a day, planned expansion to 1 million barrels a day. Iran's total exports were 687,500 barrels a day in July 2026. A separate monthly volume for Jask is not shown within that.
S&P Global Commodity Insights 05/08/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Sunda StraitStrait
alternative route, barely used
The Sunda Strait between Sumatra and Java counts as an alternative to Malacca but carries only a fraction of the traffic in normal operation. It is deeper than Malacca and takes fully laden large tankers, but it costs time. Now: no sourced transit figure is available for 2026. Before: around 2,280 ships a year according to the commercial provider Ballast Markets, about 2.4 percent of Malacca traffic; detour 7 to 8 days. The transit figures come from a commercial provider with no identifiable primary source and no date. An increase in 2026 is not documented.
Ballast Markets (retrieved 17/09/2026), RSIS
Lombok StraitStrait
deep-water alternative route
The Lombok Strait is the deep alternative to Malacca and is used regularly by the largest tankers, for which Malacca's draught is tight. Whether it is being used more in 2026 cannot be documented with public data. Now: no reliable transit figure for 2026; a traffic service reported normal operation on 17/09/2026 but pointed to a thin data base. Before: the fairway is several hundred metres deep, whereas Malacca has a governing depth of around 25 metres. Figures: Eurasia Review, 11/05/2026: around 15,099 ships in 2023, and 21,547 elsewhere in the same text; VanEck, 2026: Malacca carried around 23.2 million barrels a day in mid-2025 and thus 29 percent of seaborne oil trade. The two ship counts for 2023 contradict each other, and an official Indonesian count for 2026 is not available.
Eurasia Review 11/05/2026, GEOPOL and ShipInfo (retrieved 17/09/2026), VanEck 2026
Strait of MalaccaStrait
running, elevated risk
No disruption reported. Far less oil is coming from the Gulf to Asia, however. Now: around 224 cargo ships a day (IMF PortWatch, 7 days to 13/09). Before: 23.2 million barrels a day.
IMF PortWatch, EIA
Bosporus and DardanellesStrait
running, elevated risk
Turkey withheld permits for ships to Russia and Ukraine from 06 to 09/08; transits have been running again since. War risk insurance in the Black Sea has risen sharply. Now: transits released again since 09/08. Before: 3.7 million barrels a day.
Main route for Russian Baltic exports, including the so-called shadow fleet. No current disruption reported. Now: Russian seaborne exports 3.54 million barrels a day (4 weeks to 13/09). Before: 4.9 million barrels a day.
Bloomberg via TT News 15/09/2026, EIA
Druzhba pipelinePipeline
running according to the latest report
The southern branch to Hungary and Slovakia has been running again since 23/04. No reliable status is available for August and September. Now: southern branch back in operation since 23/04, no more recent reliable figure.
Wikipedia (2026 Druzhba pipeline dispute)
Rotterdam (ARA)Port and terminal
running, under strain
Europe's hub for diesel and heating oil. Gasoil stocks are rising thanks to US imports; kerosene is at its lowest level in seven years. Now: gasoil 1.68 million tonnes (+4%).
Reuters via Investing.com 10/09/2026
US Gulf Coast (Houston)Port and terminal
refineries running almost flat out
US refineries are running almost flat out. Diesel cost USD 6.27 per gallon at US retail on 15/09 according to AAA, a record. Now: refinery utilisation just under 98% (EIA, weekly report).
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, AAA via GlobalSecurity 16/09/2026
Libya (Es Sider)Port and terminal
running, political risk
Production at its highest level in 13 years, no current port closure known. Before: last reported 1.49 million barrels a day (June 2026).
Rio Times 05/09/2026
Nigeria (Bonny)Port and terminal
running
European refineries are buying replacements here for the missing Saudi oil.
BusinessDay
TurkStream with Balkan Streamgas pipeline
running, last Russian route
Since the end of Ukrainian transit on 1 January 2025, the only route for Russian pipeline gas to Europe. Volumes in 2026 are slightly above the year earlier. Drone attacks on the Russkaya compressor station and the agreed EU exit by autumn 2027 weigh on it. Now: August 2026: 51.9 million cubic metres a day, up 3 percent on August 2025. Before: designed for 31.5 billion cubic metres a year for both strings together. Whether Bulgaria will stop transit to Serbia and Hungary is disputed between Sofia, Belgrade, Budapest and the European Commission.
Pipeline & Gas Journal 03/09/2026, TASS 01/07/2026, Balkan Green Energy News 02/06/2026
Transmed (Algeria via Tunisia to Italy)gas pipeline
running, Italy's main artery
The central gas axis from Algeria to Italy and, since 2022, Italy's most important supply line. After QatarEnergy's force majeure, European governments travelled to Algiers in March 2026 to secure additional volumes. The bottleneck is not the pipe but Algerian production. Now: no published monthly volume is available for 2026. Before: nominal capacity around 33.5 billion cubic metres a year; Algeria delivered 20 billion cubic metres to Italy in 2025 in total, which is 36 percent of Italian consumption.
Carnegie Endowment 09/07/2026, Il Sole 24 Ore 2026, Ecofin Agency 21/07/2026
Medgaz (Algeria to Spain)gas pipeline
running, expansion under negotiation
Connects Beni Saf with Almería and has been Algeria's only direct gas link to Spain since the Maghreb-Europe line closed in 2021. Madrid and Algiers have been negotiating since March 2026 over up to ten percent more throughput. Now: Algerian gas covered over 29 percent of Spanish gas imports in the first two months of 2026. Before: capacity after the expansion 10 to 16 billion cubic metres a year depending on the source. The capacity figures diverge considerably according to Global Energy Monitor, and no officially confirmed figure after the expansion is available.
Pipeline & Gas Journal 26/03/2026, Carnegie Endowment 09/07/2026, Global Energy Monitor 16/09/2026
Trans Adriatic Pipeline with TANAP (Southern Gas Corridor)gas pipeline
running, first expansion stage complete
Carries Azerbaijani gas from Shah Deniz via Turkey and Greece to Italy. The first expansion stage was completed in early 2026. Despite the crisis its contribution to the EU gas mix remains small. Now: 60 billion cubic metres to Europe cumulatively since operations began, 50 of them to Italy (TAP AG, 10/07/2026). Before: initial capacity 10 billion cubic metres a year, target at least 20 by 2027; Azerbaijan delivered 11.3 billion cubic metres to the EU in 2025, which is 3.9 percent of EU gas imports. The expansion commitment sits uneasily with production trends in Azerbaijan. The doubts come from reporting, not from TAP or SOCAR.
TAP AG 10/07/2026, Caucasus Business Journal 28/06/2026, Council of the EU (2025 data)
Sabine Pass LNG, LouisianaLNG terminal (export)
largest US plant, full load
The largest liquefaction plant in the USA is running flat out in the crisis market. Cheniere loaded its 5,000th cargo here on 29 August 2026. A large share of the cargoes has gone to Europe since Qatar's outage. Now: no disruption reported; US exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet a day in the first half of 2026, up 23 percent. Before: nominal capacity 3.6 billion cubic feet a day, around 29.5 million tonnes a year, six trains.
U.S. EIA via LNG Industry 16/09/2026, Cheniere via Offshore Energy 31/08/2026, American Gas Association 03/09/2026
Corpus Christi LNG, TexasLNG terminal (export)
expansion complete, second-largest plant
At the end of August 2026 Cheniere reported the completion of the Stage 3 expansion with seven smaller trains. The extra volume reaches the market in exactly the half-year in which Qatar is out. Now: Stage 3 completed, no disruption reported. Before: nominal capacity 3.1 billion cubic feet a day, over 25 million tonnes a year at the site. Accounts of the completion date differ: Cheniere cites 28/08/2026, the EIA analysis 18/08/2026.
U.S. EIA via LNG Industry 16/09/2026, Cheniere via Offshore Energy 31/08/2026
Plaquemines LNG, LouisianaLNG terminal (export)
ramping up, exports increased
Venture Global's plant on the Mississippi has been ramping up since December 2024. On 14 March 2026 the US Department of Energy approved exports 13 percent higher, expressly in response to the supply gap. Phase 2 is under construction. Now: approved exports 3.85 billion cubic feet a day since 14/03/2026; around 2 million tonnes shipped in February 2026. Before: Phase 1 with 10 million tonnes a year in operation, Phase 2 with a further 10 million tonnes under construction.
US Department of Energy via Reuters March 2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Golden Pass LNG, TexasLNG terminal (export)
newly on stream, Qatar in Texas
The joint project of QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil began production on 30 March 2026 and loaded its first cargo on 22 April. The most striking case of the crisis: the same group is earning in Texas while its plant at Ras Laffan is under force majeure. Now: first export cargo on 22/04/2026; first two trains at 1.4 billion cubic feet a day in 2026 according to the EIA forecast. Before: designed for 18.1 million tonnes a year, three trains.
Golden Pass LNG 30/03/2026, U.S. EIA Today in Energy
Yamal LNG, Sabetta (Russia)LNG terminal (export)
running, EU ban from 2027
Yamal LNG is not sanctioned and continues to deliver to Europe legally. In January 2026, 23 of 25 cargoes went to EU ports. The EU import ban on Russian LNG only takes effect in January 2027, and buying is being brought forward until then. Now: January 2026: 1.69 million tonnes, 92.6 percent of it to the EU, up 8 percent on the year earlier. Before: nominal capacity 17.4 million tonnes a year, four trains. Global Energy Monitor cites exports of 21.2 million tonnes for 2024, more than the nominal capacity, without explaining the difference.
gCaptain 04/02/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, Barents Observer 25/08/2026
Sakhalin 2 is producing normally and supplies Japan above all. On 11 June 2026 the US Treasury extended the waiver for Japanese purchases to 18 December 2026, expressly citing the closure of Hormuz. Now: production 2025: 10.3 million tonnes, up 1 percent; Japan takes around 3.6 to 3.9 million tonnes a year. Before: nominally 15.0 million tonnes a year; two trains totalling 9.6 million tonnes are in operation. If the waiver expires in December, Japan will be short of volumes at short notice in an already sold-out market.
US Treasury via Oil & Gas Journal 12/06/2026, Interfax January 2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Gladstone and Curtis Island LNG, QueenslandLNG terminal (export)
full load, export quota planned
Australia is running its plants practically at the limit. In August 2026 exports were at 97.2 percent of national nominal capacity. Political headwinds loom: the government plans to reserve volumes for the domestic market. Now: August 2026: Australia 7.10 million tonnes in total in 102 cargoes; Queensland 1.95 million tonnes in 30 cargoes. Before: Gladstone LNG alone 7.8 million tonnes a year, Australia 86.0 million tonnes a year in total. On the planned 20 percent domestic reservation only a headline is available; the start and the scope are unconfirmed.
EnergyQuest August 2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
LNG terminal Wilhelmshaven 1 and 2LNG terminal (import)
high utilisation, storage empty
Wilhelmshaven is Germany's most important LNG send-out point and runs with two floating units. Together with Brunsbüttel the site sent over 25 terawatt hours into the grid in the first quarter of 2026, more than ever before in three months. It is still not enough: German storage was as low in August as at no point in at least 15 years. Now: utilisation 80 to 81 percent in 2025; German storage at 53.3 percent on 31/08/2026. Before: up to 9 billion cubic metres of grid send-out a year together. According to the transmission system operators' system analysis, all German LNG terminals together cover only around 10 percent of peak demand on the coldest days.
Deutsche Energy Terminal 2026, ingenieur.de August 2026, Serbia Energy 06/09/2026
LNG terminal BrunsbüttelLNG terminal (import)
running almost flat out
The floating unit Höegh Gannet has been sending out since spring 2023 and is the steadiest of the state terminals. In 2024 utilisation was above 80 percent, in 2025 close to full load. Now: no disruption reported (17/09/2026). Before: up to 4.0 billion cubic metres of grid send-out a year. The terminal-by-terminal utilisation figures come from an analysis of March 2025; no more recent figure for 2026 is available.
Deutsche Energy Terminal 2026, zfk 27/03/2025
Gate terminal RotterdamLNG terminal (import)
expansion to 20 billion cubic metres
North-west Europe's largest LNG entry point is being expanded with a fourth tank. Capacity is to rise from around 16 to 20 billion cubic metres a year. In January 2026 Rotterdam also took Russian Yamal cargoes. Now: expansion under construction, no disruption reported. Before: currently 14.7 million tonnes a year, which is around 16 billion cubic metres. Whether the expansion actually went into service in the third quarter of 2026 is not confirmed.
Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, gCaptain 04/02/2026
LNG terminal ŚwinoujścieLNG terminal (import)
expanded, running almost flat out
Poland raised capacity from 5 to 8.3 billion cubic metres a year in January 2025, after which utilisation was close to 90 percent. Most of the cargoes come from the USA. A second Polish unit off Gdańsk is not planned until early 2028. Now: utilisation close to 90 percent in the twelve months to April 2025; no verified figure for 2026. Before: capacity 8.3 billion cubic metres a year, previously 5 billion.
Gas Outlook 08/05/2025, LNG Prime 10/02/2026
Barcelona regasification and the Spanish networkLNG terminal (import)
largest network in Europe, reserve
Spain has Europe's largest regasification capacity but is only weakly connected by pipeline to the rest of the continent. Barcelona is the largest single plant. Compared with the rest of Europe, Spanish terminals continue to run below average. Now: El Musel was at 13.9 percent utilisation in the first quarter of 2026, the EU average at 55 percent. Before: Barcelona alone 12.6 million tonnes a year, six tanks. No reliable current total figure for Spain's regasification capacity in billion cubic metres is available.
Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, IEEFA European LNG Tracker May 2026, Enagás
Isle of Grain LNG, KentLNG terminal (import)
expanded, running in crisis mode
After the expansion, the terminal at the mouth of the Thames is one of the largest import plants in Europe. The United Kingdom is expanding its regasification capacity while its own North Sea production falls away. Now: no disruption reported; UK capacity 21.7 billion cubic metres a year, being expanded to 27. Before: base plant 14.3 million tonnes a year, 23.0 million tonnes with the expansion. Whether the expansion is fully in service could not be confirmed for September 2026.
Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, IEEFA May 2026
LNG terminal RevithoussaLNG terminal (import)
south-eastern entry, slots allocated
Revithoussa off Megara is, together with Alexandroupolis, the main entry point for LNG into south-eastern Europe. From the 2026/27 gas year Bulgargaz is building up an offering of its own through the Greek infrastructure. Now: no disruption reported; Greece has 12.5 billion cubic metres of regasification capacity in total. Before: capacity 5.1 million tonnes a year, storage 370,000 cubic metres. Current throughput figures for 2026 are not available.
Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, Serbia Energy 06/09/2026, IEEFA May 2026
LNG terminal Krk, OmišaljLNG terminal (import)
Adriatic entry, expanded
The floating terminal off Omišalj was expanded to 6.1 billion cubic metres a year and in August 2026 took its first cargo from Hammerfest in Norway. Its value depends on whether the gas flows on northwards towards Hungary. Now: first cargo from Hammerfest in August 2026; EU storage at 65.4 percent on 31/08/2026 after around 78 percent a year earlier. Before: capacity 6.1 billion cubic metres a year. Reliable throughput figures for 2026 and the split between Croatian consumption and onward flow are not available.
Serbia Energy 06/09/2026, IEEFA May 2026
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipelinePipeline
running, volumes falling
The BTC brings Caspian oil to the Mediterranean bypassing Hormuz and the Bosporus and is not directly affected by the crisis. Volumes are falling all the same, because Azerbaijani production is declining. Kazakh oil is increasingly filling the line. Now: August 2026: 15.1 million barrels through the Turkish section, down 9.5 percent on July. Before: nominal capacity around 1.2 million barrels a day, length 1,768 kilometres. Figures: Trend.az, 17/09/2026: 15.1 million barrels of transit in August, down 9.5 percent; Reuters, July 2026: Azerbaijani exports 12.7 million tonnes in the first half, down 8.7 percent; Energy minister Bayraktar, 2026: around 600,000 barrels a day, around 400,000 barrels of capacity lying idle; AzerNews, 09/09/2026: Kazakh oil through the BTC up 12 percent in eight months. The figures are not directly comparable: Trend.az counts total transit through Turkey, Reuters only Azerbaijani crude.
Trend.az 17/09 and 11/09/2026, AzerNews 09/09/2026, Reuters July 2026, Global Energy Monitor
ESPO branch from Skovorodino to DaqingPipeline
overland route to China
The branch runs via Mohe to Daqing and delivers Russian crude straight to China, without Hormuz, without Malacca and without tankers. That is exactly why Beijing has upgraded this link strategically. Now: no publicly documented daily volume is available for 2026. Before: design capacity 600,000 barrels a day. A current, sourced throughput figure is missing for this line. The assessment rests on the design capacity and on reports about the growing role of the overland routes.
Transneft figures via Wikipedia 17/09/2026, CREA July 2026
The line carries Kazakh crude overland to western China and so bypasses both Hormuz and Malacca. Volumes are growing slowly, but Kazakhstan has approved an expansion by 2030. Now: January to August 2026: 13.1 million tonnes, up 2 percent on the same period a year earlier. Before: Atasu to Alashankou section in July 2026: 98,000 tonnes, down 18.3 percent on the year earlier. The two figures are not directly comparable: the first covers the whole system, the second one section and one month.
KazTransOil via Astana Times September 2026, Interfax 2026
Timeline 2026
Druzhba southern branch halted After a Russian drone strike near the Brody oil hub, Ukraine declared force majeure; transit to Hungary and Slovakia came to a standstill. (Wikipedia (2026 Druzhba pipeline dispute), retrieved 17/09/2026)
Iran declares Hormuz closed After the start of the US-Israeli strikes, the Revolutionary Guards warned by radio against passage; tanker traffic fell sharply according to ship tracking data. (S&P Global, 28/02/2026)
Qatar halts LNG production QatarEnergy stopped LNG production after a drone strike and then declared force majeure towards its buyers. (Gulf News, 04/03/2026)
Drones hit Ras Tanura Debris from intercepted drones set off a fire at the refinery, which stood idle for about a week, according to Saudi Arabia; Riyadh blames Iran, Iran denies it. (Wikipedia (2026 Aramco refinery attack), retrieved 17/09/2026)
Brent above 100 dollars for the first time Brent briefly rose above 100 US dollars per barrel when trading opened on Sunday evening, for the first time in four years. (Wikipedia (2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis), retrieved 17/09/2026)
Tankers attacked off Basra After attacks with explosive boats on tankers in the port of Basra, loadings at Iraq's southern terminals came to a virtual standstill; exports had previously been 3.4 million barrels a day. (The National, 16/03/2026)
Pipelines bypass Hormuz The Saudi East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the Emirati ADCOP line to Fujairah became the main export routes around Hormuz. (CNBC, 12/03/2026)
US strike on Kharg CENTCOM said it had hit more than 90 military targets on the island and spared the oil facilities; Iran stated that oil operations were continuing. (Wikipedia (2026 Kharg Island attack), retrieved 17/09/2026)
Fujairah suspends loading Parts of the oil operations in the port of Fujairah were suspended after a drone strike and fire. (Bloomberg, 14/03/2026)
Second hit within 48 hours A drone hit the Fujairah Oil Industries Zone; the fire was put out and loadings were paused while the damage was assessed. (All India Radio (newsonair), 16/03/2026)
Iraq pumps Kirkuk oil to Ceyhan Iraq started exports from the Kirkuk fields through the pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, initially around 250,000 barrels a day, to replace the lost southern exports. (The National, 18/03/2026)
Missiles damage Ras Laffan Iranian strikes damaged two LNG trains and a GTL plant; around 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity will be out for years, according to the report. (Fox Business, 03/2026)
Two-week ceasefire agreed The USA and Iran agreed a ceasefire with safe passage under Pakistani mediation; according to ADNOC's chief executive the strait remained effectively shut the following day. (All India Radio (newsonair), 08/04/2026)
East-West Pipeline back to full Saudi Arabia reported the pipeline back at around 7 million barrels a day after the attacks; according to SPA the strikes had cut throughput by about 700,000 barrels a day. (Al Jazeera, 12/04/2026)
US naval blockade of Iranian ports CENTCOM began intercepting ships to and from Iranian ports; Iran's oil exports through Kharg were blocked as a result. (CENTCOM, 13/07/2026 (retrospective))
Iran briefly opens Hormuz After the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, Iran's foreign minister declared the strait open and traffic partly resumed. (Al Jazeera, 11/06/2026)
Iran closes Hormuz again Iran closed the strait again in response to the continuing US blockade; merchant ships came under fire. (Al Jazeera, 11/06/2026)
Druzhba delivering again After around three months, oil flowed again through the Budkovce pumping station to Slovakia and Hungary. (CNN, 22/04/2026)
Drone hits VTTI terminal A drone strike started a major fire at VTTI's oil terminal in Fujairah and three people were taken to hospital; Fujairah's authorities spoke of an Iranian drone. (Offshore Technology, 05/05/2026)
Memorandum ends the war for now Trump and Pezeshkian signed a memorandum to end the war; the strait opened and the ceasefire was extended by 60 days. (Axios, 20/06/2026)
USA lift the blockade CENTCOM ended the naval blockade of Iranian ports after the memorandum was signed. (CENTCOM, 13/07/2026 (retrospective))
Iran announces another closure Iran's armed forces declared Hormuz closed because of Israeli strikes in Lebanon; CENTCOM reported 55 merchant ships in transit the same day. (Axios, 20/06/2026)
Qatar's force majeure extended QatarEnergy extended the force majeure towards Edison until mid-September; 17% of capacity will stay offline for years, according to AGBI. (AGBI, 07/2026)
Revolutionary Guards close Hormuz After the ceasefire collapsed on 08/07, the navy of the Revolutionary Guards declared the strait closed. (Al Jazeera (live blog), 11/07/2026)
US blockade back in force CENTCOM put the blockade on ships to and from Iranian ports back in force from 14/07, 4 p.m. US Eastern Time; Iran declared the memorandum void. (CENTCOM, 13/07/2026)
Houthis impose a shipping ban on the Saudis Houthi spokesman Saree announced an immediate ban on Saudi shipping without naming an enforcement area; ships under other flags are not covered. (Xinhua, 20/07/2026)
CPC halts loading After drone hits on tankers at the buoys, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended loading and from 21/07 stopped accepting Kazakh oil. (Times of Central Asia, 2026)
Attack on Saudi tankers The Houthis said they had attacked two Saudi tankers; Brent closed at 100.69 dollars, back above 100 for the first time since May. (Reuters via Euronext, 23/07/2026)
Houthis report hits in Jizan The Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu; satellite data showed fires in Jizan, Riyadh officially confirmed no damage. (Türkiye Today, 25/07/2026)
CPC loading again After a week's standstill, loading resumed at two buoys; attacks on 30/07 briefly interrupted it again. (Times of Central Asia, 2026)
Drone hits the port of Damietta A drone hit two gas carriers in the Egyptian Mediterranean port near the Suez Canal; the USA blames Iran, Iran's foreign ministry denies it. (Wikipedia (2026 Damietta drone strike), retrieved 17/09/2026)
Turkey holds back Black Sea transits The Turkish coastal safety authority temporarily stopped issuing transit permits for voyages to Russian and Ukrainian ports. (gCaptain, 09/08/2026)
Straits passable again A crude oil tanker and a container ship passed the Dardanelles and Turkey resumed the transits. (gCaptain, 09/08/2026)
Fire at the Aramco refinery in Jizan Saudi Arabia reported a fire that had been put out without giving a cause; the Houthis said they had hit the refinery with a drone. (Al Jazeera, 09/08/2026)
Deadly attack in the Bab el-Mandeb The Houthis attacked a merchant ship in the Bab el-Mandeb; six people died, according to the Yemeni government. (Al Jazeera, 12/08/2026)
Kirkuk exports sharply throttled Exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline fell to around 120,000 to 135,000 barrels a day, after around 300,000 in July. (Shafaq News, 13/08/2026)
Drones set Ust-Luga on fire A fire broke out at the Baltic port after a Ukrainian drone strike; according to governor Drozdenko nobody was injured, and he gave no figures on the damage. (The Moscow Times, 14/08/2026)
Basra loads outside Hormuz Iraq's marketing company SOMO offered Basra crude for loading outside Hormuz, among other things via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman. (Zawya, 27/08/2026)
Second attack on Ust-Luga According to the governor, air defences intercepted 52 drones; a fire at the port was out by 9:30 a.m. Moscow time. (The Moscow Times, 01/09/2026)
Dispute over transit figures US officials cited up to 40 ships a day, while trackers such as Kpler counted 5 to 11 and Lloyd's List around 12 transits a day. (Al Jazeera, 03/09/2026)
Panama cuts transits because of drought The canal authority lowered daily transits from 36 to 34 and on 02/09 cut the draught for the largest ships to 14.63 metres. (The Rio Times, 09/2026)
Jizan hit for the third time The Jizan refinery was attacked for the third time in two months, according to insider reports; no export cargo left Jizan in August, the report said. (OilPrice.com, 07/09/2026)
Houthis take Mokha The Houthis captured the Red Sea port city of Mokha, their largest territorial gain in years. (Al Jazeera, 10/09/2026)
East-West Pipeline shut down Saudi Arabia shut the line down as a precaution after drone hits; Riyadh names Iraq as the launch site, Baghdad confirmed Maysan province on 13/09, nobody has claimed responsibility. (CNN, 11/09/2026)
Houthis take Dhubab and Perim According to Asharq Al-Awsat the Houthis occupied the Dhubab district and the island of Mayun (Perim) in the Bab el-Mandeb; there is no formal closure of the strait. (Asharq Al-Awsat, 09/2026)
Hanish Islands fall to the Houthis After pro-government forces withdrew, the Houthis took over Greater and Lesser Hanish north of the strait. (Euronews, 14/09/2026)
Panama cuts to 32 transits The canal authority further reduced daily transits to 32 and Panamax slots to 23. (The Rio Times, 09/2026)
Partial restart announced Saudi Arabia intends to restore half the pipeline capacity within days and full capacity within six weeks, according to reports; Brent fell to around 103 dollars. (Trading Economics, 17/09/2026)
Ship numbers: IMF PortWatch (International Monetary Fund), aggregated by us into weekly averages. AIS data understate traffic when ships switch off their transponders. Pre-crisis volumes and voyage times: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices: EU Weekly Oil Bulletin, heizoel24.ch, NYSERDA. Gas storage: GIE AGSI+. Base map: Natural Earth. Shipping routes schematic after Eurostat SeaRoute (EUPL-1.2). Pipelines schematic.
Brent from today back twelve months, so back to before the crisis, and the events that moved the price.
as of 13 Sep 2026
104,61USD a barrel, Brent future (ICE)30-day trend loading
Brent, USD a barrelevent with sourcedays and weeks from our own series, twelve months from Brent futures (BZ=F)
The more routes are closed or disrupted, the longer and dearer the journey for crude and diesel. Those costs reach household bills with a lag of a few weeks, and the maths behind that is in our methodology.
Saudi Arabia shut the line down as a precaution after drone hits; Riyadh names Iraq as the launch site, Baghdad confirmed Maysan province on 13/09, nobody has claimed responsibility.
According to Asharq Al-Awsat the Houthis occupied the Dhubab district and the island of Mayun (Perim) in the Bab el-Mandeb; there is no formal closure of the strait.
Saudi Arabia intends to restore half the pipeline capacity within days and full capacity within six weeks, according to reports; Brent fell to around 103 dollars.
No one can predict this exactly. Consensus forecasts from EIA, IEA and major investment banks for early 2026 fall in a Brent range of 70-110 USD per barrel. Geopolitical escalations (Hormuz, Russia sanctions, OPEC+ cuts) can shift that band 15-30% higher in the short term. The calculator therefore lets you test different price scenarios.
Why do oil prices make food more expensive?
Oil is everywhere in the food chain: diesel for tractors and transport, natural gas for fertilizer (Haber-Bosch), plastic packaging, cold chains. Consistent FAO and World Bank studies show that a 20-25% rise in oil prices translates, with a 3-9 month lag, into a 3-6% increase in staple-food prices.
Which countries are hit hardest by an oil shock?
Import-dependent industrial nations with high per-capita energy use are most exposed - the US, Canada and Australia due to long driving distances; Germany, Austria and Switzerland due to heating oil and natural gas. Tax buffers and price caps can soften the blow. The calculator factors all of this in per country.
How accurate is the Oil Shock Calculator?
The calculator uses the current Brent price (live), country-specific consumption benchmarks and calibrated elasticities for fuel, electricity, heating and groceries. The result is a realistic annual estimate - not a replacement for individual bills, but much closer to reality than simple rule-of-thumb numbers.Calculate now
Where does the oil price come from?
Live quote for Brent Crude (BZ=F). If the source fails, a cache with the last stable value kicks in - marked in the UI so you know what’s live and what’s cached.
Do I need an account?
No. No login, no email required, no cookies for the result. You can optionally enter your name - that’s only used to personalize the result card and is never stored.Calculate now
Which blockades are considered?
Strait of Hormuz (active by default), Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Each blockade adds a specific risk premium on top of the baseline price. You can enable/disable them individually.
What can I actively do against high oil prices?
The biggest levers are mobility (eco-driving, switch to public transit, fuel tracking), heating (lower thermostat, bleed radiators, check window seals), electricity (LED, kill standby, wash at 30°C), and groceries (seasonal, regional, less meat). Our tips page lists 100+ concrete measures with payback time and savings potential.
Country Guides
Country Guides 2026, Energy Costs by Market
Seven detail guides with heating-oil prices, gas forecasts, local subsidies and the four highest-impact save levers per country, all in the language of the respective market.
Understanding the 2026 oil price: what rising prices really mean for your household
Oil markets in 2026 are more complex than ever. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, OPEC+ production policy, Russia sanctions and the energy transition meet a world economy still around 30% dependent on liquid hydrocarbons. Anyone who wants to understand what the next price jump means for their wallet needs three things: up-to-date data, country-specific benchmarks and a clean methodology. That is exactly what the Global Oil Shock Calculator delivers.
How does the calculator work?
The methodology rests on four pillars: first, the live Brent price via the Yahoo Finance API (with cache fallback). Second, country-specific consumption profiles from EIA, IEA and Eurostat - average fuel, heating oil, natural gas, electricity and grocery spend per household. Third, calibrated price elasticities - how strongly does each sector respond to a Brent price jump? Fourth, the blockade scenarios: Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez - each route has its own risk premium derived from historical data.
Oil is not an isolated product - it is the lubricant of the entire economy. Transport, plastics, fertilizer, asphalt, power generation, heating and indirectly nearly all consumer goods depend on it. OECD modeling estimates a sustained 20% Brent rise lifts consumer inflation by 0.3-0.6 percentage points after 6-12 months. For an average household this means an extra 600-1,800 euros or dollars per year - without any rise in household income.
Geopolitical risks and choke points
About one third of globally shipped oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman. A blockade, or even a credible threat, historically pushes Brent 15-35% higher - even without physical disruption. The same applies to the Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb, Houthi attacks since late 2023) and the Suez Canal. The calculator explicitly models these scenarios and shows you the additional effect on your household costs.
What can you actually do?
The biggest effect usually lies in the combination of mobility (less driving or eco-driving), heating (thermostat down, insulation, heat pump medium term) and electricity (LED, efficient appliances, standby killers). Typical households lower their oil-shock impact by 20-40% - with no real comfort loss. The tips section above shows you the four most effective levers; the full tips page lists 100+ concrete measures with payback time.
Methodology, transparency and limits
The calculator provides an annual estimate at household level, not individual bills. Deviations of plus/minus 10-20% are normal due to individual consumption. Sources and formulas are openly documented - transparency is the whole point of the tool. No scaremongering, no financial advice, no hidden ads. Just clean data, clear presentation, and the decision stays with you.
