1. What is the oil price today once inflation is taken out?
In October 2026, Brent cost $123.93 a barrel on average in the FRED monthly series, and because the CPI used as the deflator is the September 2026 index, that nominal price is also its value in dollars of September 2026: $123.93; WTI averaged $102.07. Against the past the picture changes: Brent's real record of $204.63 in June 2008 is $80.70 higher, so October 2026 stands at 61 percent of the 2008 peak once general inflation is removed, even though the nominal headline was almost as high.
The chart shows the WTI history from January 1947 to October 2026: grey nominal, orange inflation-adjusted. The first data point, $1.62 in January 1947, becomes $25.36 in today's money, a factor of 15.7. The two lines meet on the right because the base month is September 2026.
WTI per barrel, nominal and in dollars of September 2026, monthly Jan 1947 – Oct 2026
Latest value (October 2026):
- Inflation-adjusted (dollars of September 2026): $102.07
- Nominal: $102.07
Source: FRED (WTISPLC, CPIAUCSL), own calculation by Global Oil Shock, as of 5 Nov 2026
Three things stand out. The decades before 1973 were flat in real terms, at roughly a third of today's level, because posted prices barely moved while consumer prices rose. The spikes of the 1970s and 2008 tower above everything else, and the plateau of 2011–2014 is higher than nominal charts suggest. 2026 is a third peak that stays below the first two. The series is monthly by construction, because the CPI exists only by month; daily nominal prices are on oil price today.
2. How does 2026 compare with 1973, 1980, 2008 and 2022?
In dollars of September 2026, the real price peaks of the past oil shocks were $72.65 for WTI in January 1974, $164.20 in April 1980, $204.63 for Brent in June 2008, $184.98 in April 2011 and $139.91 in June 2022; the 2026 high so far is $123.93 in October 2026. The 1973–74 embargo stands out for its speed: WTI went from $32.07 real in September 1973 to $72.65 four months later, a factor of 2.3. Nominal comparisons distort this. The April 1980 WTI price was $39.50 on paper, which sounds cheap next to $102.07 today, but a dollar in 1980 bought 4.16 times as much as a dollar in September 2026.
| Episode | Month | Nominal ($/bbl) | Real ($/bbl, dollars of September 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before the 1973 embargo (WTI) | September 1973 | 4.31 | 32.07 |
| 1973–74 embargo (WTI) | January 1974 | 10.11 | 72.65 |
| Second oil shock 1979–80 (WTI) | April 1980 | 39.50 | 164.20 |
| 1998 low (WTI) | December 1998 | 11.28 | 23.07 |
| 2008 peak (Brent) | June 2008 | 132.32 | 204.63 |
| 2011–14 peak (Brent) | April 2011 | 123.26 | 184.98 |
| 2020 Covid low (WTI) | April 2020 | 16.55 | 21.74 |
| 2022 peak (Brent) | June 2022 | 122.71 | 139.91 |
| 2026 peak (so far) (Brent) | October 2026 | 123.93 | 123.93 |
Monthly values; own calculation with CPI-U. FRED has no monthly Brent series before May 1987, hence WTI.
The table uses WTI for the early episodes because FRED's monthly Brent series only starts in May 1987; for the later ones Brent is the global benchmark European and British buyers pay. The 2008 peak is the clearest yardstick: the Brent average of June 2008 needs a CPI factor of 1.55 to reach September 2026 dollars and lands at $204.63, leaving 2026 short by $80.70. The 2022 episode after Russia's invasion of Ukraine is closer: Brent reached $139.91 real in June 2022 (CPI factor 1.14), and October 2026 at $123.93 is $15.98 below that, although the nominal October 2026 price is higher than any month of 2022.
The path through 2026: Brent averaged $70.89 real in February 2026, the last month before the war and the collapse of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, jumped to $117.29 in April, fell back to $83.76 in July and climbed to $123.93 in October 2026, 1.75 times the February level. Supply losses and policy responses of each episode are compared on oil shocks compared; the term is defined under oil shock.
3. Which months were the most expensive in real terms?
The eight most expensive months for WTI in dollars of September 2026 are six months of 2008 led by June 2008 at $207.12 and July 2008 at $204.90, then April 2011 at $165.14 and April 1980 at $164.20; no month of 2022 or 2026 appears in the list. For Brent, June 2008 at $204.63 leads, but places four and five go to April 2011 ($184.98) and March 2012 ($184.39), because Brent decoupled from WTI during the Cushing bottleneck of 2011–2014 (see Brent–WTI spread).
| Rank | Month | WTI real ($/bbl, dollars of September 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 2008 | 207.12 |
| 2 | July 2008 | 204.90 |
| 3 | May 2008 | 195.94 |
| 4 | August 2008 | 179.32 |
| 5 | April 2008 | 176.95 |
| 6 | March 2008 | 166.32 |
| 7 | April 2011 | 165.14 |
| 8 | April 1980 | 164.20 |
Monthly values deflated with the US consumer price index CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL); WTI from January 1947, Brent from May 1987. Own calculation.
| Rank | Month | BRENT real ($/bbl, dollars of September 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 2008 | 204.63 |
| 2 | July 2008 | 203.79 |
| 3 | May 2008 | 191.90 |
| 4 | April 2011 | 184.98 |
| 5 | March 2012 | 184.39 |
| 6 | February 2012 | 175.76 |
| 7 | April 2012 | 175.72 |
| 8 | July 2011 | 174.52 |
Monthly values deflated with the US consumer price index CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL); WTI from January 1947, Brent from May 1987. Own calculation.
Nominal rankings explain much of the public confusion. In nominal dollars the Brent list has July 2008 at $132.72 first, March 2012 at $125.45 third, October 2026 at $123.93 fourth and April 2011 at $123.26 fifth; the nominal WTI top five is led by June 2008 at $133.93 and includes June 2022 at $114.84. A headline calling October 2026 one of the five most expensive months in history is correct in nominal terms and wrong in real terms. The real lows: April 2020 at $21.74, in the first Covid lockdowns, and December 1998 at $23.07, at the bottom of the Asian financial crisis.
Brent per barrel, nominal and in dollars of September 2026, monthly May 1987 – Oct 2026
Latest value (October 2026):
- Inflation-adjusted: $123.93
- Nominal: $123.93
Source: FRED (MCOILBRENTEU, CPIAUCSL), own calculation by Global Oil Shock, as of 5 Nov 2026
Where does October 2026 sit in the distribution? The WTI real price of $102.07 is at the 84.2th percentile of all months since January 1947; against the period since 1990, which excludes the cheap 1950s and 1960s, the rank falls to the 76.2th percentile. Brent at $123.93 is at the 85.9th percentile of its series since May 1987. The real WTI average across 1946–2025 is $64.25 (median $52.22); since 1990 it is $78.59 (median $70.33). Today's price is 1.59 times the long-run mean, high but not unprecedented.
4. How is the inflation-adjusted oil price calculated?
Real price = nominal monthly price × (CPI of September 2026 ÷ CPI of the price month), with the CPI of September 2026 at 336.298 index points, so every value on this page is expressed in dollars of September 2026. For the WTI record month: $133.93 nominal in June 2008 × 1.55 = $207.12. The deflator is the US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, all items, seasonally adjusted (Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED code CPIAUCSL). A UK reader who wants pounds and the UK CPI would get a different series, because the exchange rate moves as well; the euro and franc versions are on Brent in euros and francs.
The price series are FRED's monthly WTI (WTISPLC), from January 1947, before 1983 a posted price rather than a traded spot price, and FRED's monthly Brent (MCOILBRENTEU) from May 1987, both based on EIA data. Only WTI reaches back to the 1940s, so it carries the early episodes; WTI and Brent explain how the benchmarks differ. Monthly averages smooth away single-day extremes such as the negative WTI settlement of April 2020.
Two gaps in the CPI have to be declared. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, no CPI data were collected between 1 October and 12 November 2025 because of the federal government shutdown, and FRED carries no October 2025 value; we interpolate it linearly between September and November 2025. The second gap is the publication lag: the CPI for October 2026 was not yet available on 5 November 2026, so October 2026 is deflated with the September 2026 index, which is why its real and nominal values are identical. Both filled months are flagged in the CSV; when the October 2026 CPI appears, the real value moves by that month's inflation rate.
5. What does the real oil price mean for drivers in the US and UK?
A real Brent price of $123.93 means that crude oil is dearer in purchasing-power terms than in any year since 2014 except 2022, and cheaper than in 2008, 2011–2013 or 1980; by yearly average, 2026 so far stands at $97.37 for Brent, against $115.90 in 2022, $156.83 in 2013, $166.34 in 2011 and $151.01 in 2008. For WTI, the US benchmark, the 2026 average is $87.63, compared with $152.67 in 1980 and $155.25 in 2008. The real price is the right measure for affordability, because wages and other prices have risen with the CPI, and the wrong measure for refinery margins or fuel taxes, which are set in current cents.
For American drivers the link from crude to the pump runs through the crack spread, fuel taxes fixed in cents per gallon and retail margins; how much of today's gasoline and diesel price crude explains is on gas prices vs crude oil, heating oil for the Northeast on US diesel and heating oil prices. For British drivers the pound-dollar rate and fuel duty come on top; see UK petrol and diesel prices. The fear of a return of stagflation rests on the 1970s, when the real price multiplied within months; in 2026 it has risen by a factor of 1.75 since February.
Two cautions. Real records refer to monthly averages of FRED series deflated with the US CPI-U; another deflator (GDP deflator, PCE index, wages) shifts the levels and can reorder close episodes. And this page describes past and present only; what the market prices for next year is on oil price forecast 2027.
| Year | WTI real ($/bbl) | Brent real ($/bbl) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 59.15 | 55.68 |
| 2001 | 49.26 | 46.45 |
| 2002 | 48.76 | 46.65 |
| 2003 | 56.92 | 52.79 |
| 2004 | 73.70 | 67.99 |
| 2005 | 97.15 | 93.63 |
| 2006 | 110.28 | 108.68 |
| 2007 | 117.16 | 117.34 |
| 2008 | 155.25 | 151.01 |
| 2009 | 96.53 | 96.23 |
| 2010 | 122.47 | 122.59 |
| 2011 | 142.18 | 166.34 |
| 2012 | 138.01 | 163.55 |
| 2013 | 141.37 | 156.83 |
| 2014 | 132.49 | 140.69 |
| 2015 | 69.10 | 74.30 |
| 2016 | 60.40 | 60.97 |
| 2017 | 69.80 | 74.39 |
| 2018 | 86.98 | 95.17 |
| 2019 | 74.95 | 84.66 |
| 2020 | 50.90 | 54.19 |
| 2021 | 84.23 | 87.58 |
| 2022 | 109.02 | 115.90 |
| 2023 | 85.67 | 91.01 |
| 2024 | 82.09 | 86.36 |
| 2025 | 68.36 | 72.16 |
| 2026 (Jan–Oct) | 87.63 | 97.37 |
Yearly averages of real monthly values in dollars of September 2026.
Download all values as CSV (UTF-8, raw values and calculation per row, stable URL; CC BY 4.0 for our calculation, raw data under the source's terms)
How to cite: Global Oil Shock (Jörg Dässler), “Inflation-Adjusted Oil Price 1947–2026: WTI and Brent in Today's Dollars”, as of 5 Nov 2026, https://globaloilshock.com/en/data/inflation-adjusted-oil-price/