1. How low are US distillate stocks right now?
US distillate fuel oil stocks were 99.3 million barrels in the week to 30 Oct 2026, 15.3 million barrels below the 2021–2025 average of 114.5 million for the same calendar week and below the previous five-year low for this week of 106.8 million, so the current level sits beneath the grey band in the chart below. The EIA's weekly distillate series starts on 20 Aug 1982; comparing each week of the year with the same week in every earlier year, we find no lower reading for this week of the year since 1982. The statement is about the seasonal comparison, not about the absolute record: the all-time low of the series was 87.2 million barrels on 19 Apr 1996, in spring, when stocks are normally at their trough after the heating season.
What makes the reading unusual is the calendar. By early November, US refiners and distributors have normally finished building the stocks they draw on through the Northeast heating season. In 2026 the build did not happen: stocks peaked at 132.9 million barrels on 23 Jan 2026 and have fallen since, from 120.8 million in the week to 27 Feb 2026, the last report before the war, to 99.3 million now (−21.5 million barrels).
US distillate stocks (diesel, heating oil), weekly 1 Nov 2024 – 30 Oct 2026, million barrels
Latest value (30 Oct 2026):
- Current: 99.3
- 5-year average (same week): 114.5
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, own calculation by Global Oil Shock, as of 5 Nov 2026; grey band = range of the previous five years
The distillate figure is a national total of diesel and heating oil grades held at refineries, in pipelines and at bulk terminals; it excludes fuel in retail and end-user tanks and the federal Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve. The pricing side of the same story is on diesel crack spread chart; how the stocks compare with jet fuel and with other countries' reserves is on diesel and jet fuel stocks.
2. How do commercial crude stocks compare with the five-year average?
Commercial crude oil stocks, which the EIA reports without the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, were 409.8 million barrels in the week to 30 Oct 2026, 18.6 million barrels or 4.3% below the 2021–2025 average of 428.3 million for the same week and below the five-year range of 421.2 to 436.8 million; it is the lowest reading for this week of the year since 2014. The crude side is tighter than normal but far less stretched than the distillate side (−4.3% against −13.3%).
The 2026 path of crude stocks tells its own story. Stocks rose into the spring, reaching 465.7 million barrels on 17 Apr 2026, as refiners worked through spring maintenance; the record export weeks of the same month are on US crude oil exports. From the summer onward the picture reversed: stocks fell to 404.5 million on 24 Jul 2026, the 2026 low, and have stayed between 404.5 and 428.9 million since. The swing within 2026, from the April high to the July low, was 61.2 million barrels. Against the week before the war (439.3 million) commercial crude stocks have changed by −29.5 million barrels.
US commercial crude oil stocks (excluding SPR), weekly 1 Nov 2024 – 30 Oct 2026, million barrels
Latest value (30 Oct 2026):
- Current: 409.8
- 5-year average (same week): 428.3
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, own calculation by Global Oil Shock, as of 5 Nov 2026; grey band = range of the previous five years
Two markers help to read the level. The all-time high of the series, 540.7 million barrels on 19 Jun 2020, came in the first pandemic summer; the all-time low since the weekly series started on 20 Aug 1982 was 247.3 million on 23 Jan 2004. Annual averages were 493.6 million barrels in 2020, 421.8 million in 2022, 426.7 million in 2025 and 430.0 million so far in 2026. The commercial figure leaves out the government's emergency stock, which is tracked on US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
| Indicator | Current | 5-year average | Deviation | Pre-war (27 Feb) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial crude (million bbl) | 409.8 | 428.3 | −18.6 (−4.3%) | 439.3 |
| Distillates (million bbl) | 99.3 | 114.5 | −15.3 (−13.3%) | 120.8 |
| Distillate days of supply | 23.8 | 29.0 | −5.2 (−17.8%) | 28.8 |
| Refinery utilization (%) | 94.5 | 87.8 | +6.7 (+7.7%) | 89.2 |
Week to 30 Oct 2026; 5-year average = average of the same calendar week in 2021–2025 (own calculation).
3. What do days of supply and refinery utilization show?
Distillate days of supply, the EIA's measure of how many days current stocks would cover at the current rate of consumption, fell to 23.8 days in the week to 30 Oct 2026, 5.2 days or 17.8% below the five-year average of 29.0 days for the same week, and the lowest reading for this week of the year since the EIA began the measure on 8 Mar 1991. Days of supply divide stocks by product supplied, so a low figure can mean low stocks, strong demand or both; in 2026 it is mainly the stock side, and on 16 Jan 2026 the same measure stood at 37.4 days. The all-time low of the series is 21.8 days on 21 Feb 2003, in the late winter of 2003, and the all-time high 54.3 days on 5 Jun 2020, during the pandemic lockdowns. The 2026 average of 29.0 days is still close to the 2022 average of 29.0 because the first months of the year were comfortable; the current reading is what matters for the winter.
US distillate days of supply, weekly 1 Nov 2024 – 30 Oct 2026, days
Latest value (30 Oct 2026):
- Current: 23.8
- 5-year average (same week): 29.0
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, own calculation by Global Oil Shock, as of 5 Nov 2026; grey band = range of the previous five years
US refineries ran at 94.5% of operable capacity in the week to 30 Oct 2026, 6.7 percentage points above the five-year average of 87.8% for the same week and above the five-year range of 85.4 to 90.6%. Utilization has been high all year: 16 weeks of 2026 printed at 95% or more, the 2026 high was 98.0% on 28 Aug 2026 and the 2026 low 88.6% on 20 Feb 2026, a week before the war began; the autumn maintenance dip bottomed at 92.5% in the week to 25 Sep 2026. The all-time high of the series, which starts on 2 Nov 1990, was 100.5% on 28 Aug 1998; the all-time low, 56.0% on 26 Feb 2021, came during the Texas freeze. The 2026 average of 93.5% compares with 90.8% in 2025 and 93.1% in 2018.
US refinery utilization, weekly 1 Nov 2024 – 30 Oct 2026, percent
Latest value (30 Oct 2026):
- Current: 94.5
- 5-year average (same week): 87.8
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, own calculation by Global Oil Shock, as of 5 Nov 2026; grey band = range of the previous five years
Read the two charts together: refineries are running harder than in any recent year and distillate stocks are still falling, so the shortfall is not a lack of refining effort. The barrels leave the system as fast as they are made, through domestic consumption and exports; this page cannot say how the outflow splits between the two. What refiners earn from running flat out is on refining margin.
4. How have the four indicators moved week by week?
Between the week to 23 Oct 2026 and the week to 30 Oct 2026, distillate stocks moved by −3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million, commercial crude by −0.9 million to 409.8 million, days of supply from 25.9 to 23.8 days and utilization from 92.8% to 94.5%. The table lists the last fourteen weekly reports with all four values; over those weeks, from 31 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, distillate stocks changed by −7.9 million barrels and commercial crude by +2.8 million.
| Week ending | Crude (million bbl) | Distillates (million bbl) | Days of supply | Utilization (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 409.8 | 99.3 | 23.8 | 94.5 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 410.6 | 102.8 | 25.9 | 92.8 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 412.5 | 104.3 | 26.7 | 93.4 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 415.6 | 102.6 | 25.8 | 93.5 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 424.1 | 105.1 | 27.9 | 92.7 |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 427.3 | 105.2 | 27.9 | 92.5 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 426.4 | 107.4 | 29.5 | 94.0 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 423.4 | 107.9 | 29.9 | 96.8 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 424.1 | 106.3 | 28.6 | 97.8 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 424.5 | 104.2 | 28.5 | 98.0 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 428.9 | 103.4 | 27.2 | 97.4 |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 428.8 | 105.6 | 28.4 | 97.2 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 424.4 | 107.1 | 29.3 | 96.2 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 407.0 | 107.2 | 29.9 | 96.5 |
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; commercial crude stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Two notes on method. The EIA's week ends on Friday and the figures are preliminary estimates that are revised in the monthly data. The five-year comparisons are our own calculation: for each report week we take the readings of the same calendar week in the five preceding years and compute the average and the range, which can differ slightly from the EIA's own figures where week boundaries shift between years.
5. What do low inventories mean for diesel and heating oil prices?
Distillate stocks of 99.3 million barrels and 23.8 days of supply at the start of November mean that the United States enters the heating season with a thinner buffer than in any year of the EIA record for this week, and a thin buffer is the condition under which small disruptions, a cold snap in New England, a refinery outage on the Gulf Coast, move prices a lot. Inventories do not set prices by themselves, but they decide how much room the market has before shortages appear, and the low level is one reason the diesel crack spread set records in September and October; the retail side is on gas prices vs crude oil, the wholesale side on diesel crack spread chart.
For oil-heated households the relevant region is the Northeast, which draws on the same national pool; our outlook is on heating oil forecast Northeast and the price picture on US diesel and heating oil prices. For fleets and farms the question is availability; the mechanics of a diesel shortage and the winter risk are on diesel shortage winter 2026/27.
Two perspectives deserve mention. One reading is that exports are draining US stocks while Americans pay record diesel prices, and that export limits would help. The other is that US refiners are supplying allies cut off from Gulf product by the Hormuz disruption and that limits would push world prices higher. This page takes no side; it shows the stock levels both sides argue about. Emergency stocks, including the SPR and other IEA members' reserves, are on strategic oil reserves; the other data series of this site are listed on the data hub.
Download all values as CSV (UTF-8, raw values and calculation per row, stable URL; CC BY 4.0 for our calculation, raw data under the source's terms)
How to cite: Global Oil Shock (Jörg Dässler), “US Oil Inventories 2026: Crude and Distillate Stocks, Days of Supply and Refinery Utilization Against the 5-Year Range”, as of 5 Nov 2026, https://globaloilshock.com/en/data/us-oil-inventories/