1. What happened this week
On 24 September the Saudi-led forces said they had intercepted six ballistic missiles, two of them with a Greek Patriot system. The Houthis named a site in Riyadh and Aramco facilities in Yanbu as the targets. The authorities reported no casualties and no damage to the oil installations (Al Jazeera, 24 September 2026). A day later President Macron promised soldiers, radars and defence systems for Yanbu (Al Jazeera, 25 September 2026).
Also on 25 September, Iran put a timetable to the UN General Assembly: first frozen funds, oil sanctions and the blockade, then the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. President Trump rejected the offer on 26 September. Foreign Minister Araghchi said on 27 September that Tehran was holding to its conditions and waiting for an official answer through mediators (CBS News, 26 September 2026; Al Jazeera, 28 September 2026).
On 26 September the Russian Ilsky refinery in the Krasnodar region, which processes 6.6 million tonnes a year, caught fire after a drone attack. On 30 September Russia extended its diesel export ban for producers to the end of October; petrol stays banned until January and jet fuel until November (Kyiv Independent, 26 September 2026; The Moscow Times, 30 September 2026).
In Libya an armed group forced the crude oil line from Sharara to Zawiya to a standstill for five days. The state-owned NOC put the shortfall on 25 September at 720,362 barrels and more than USD 75 million, while The National named more than 942,000 barrels and around USD 95 million for the whole week on 26 September. Oil was flowing again late on 26 September (Libya Observer and The National, 26 September 2026; Quantum Commodity Intelligence, 27 September 2026).
On 28 September Bloomberg reported that the Saudi East-West pipeline is pumping at least 3.5 million barrels a day again, about half of its capacity of 7 million. A full restart could take around six weeks. On 29 September Kpler estimated throughput at around 2.65 million barrels a day, and two trading sources named around 2 million for the loadings at Yanbu. ESA satellite images from 27 September show around 40 tankers off the terminals (Bloomberg via Rigzone, 28 September 2026; Reuters via Marine Link, 29 September 2026).
The same day QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG deliveries into November, and until early December for Italy's Edison (The National, 28 September 2026). The Panama Canal Authority raised the maximum permitted draft in the Neopanamax locks from 14.63 to 14.94 metres and announced that daily transits will go up from 32 to 33 from 15 October (Panama Canal Authority, 28 September 2026).
On 29 September the Spanish government extended its fuel tax relief beyond 30 September to 31 December: 20 cents per litre in October, 13 cents in November, 6 cents in December, with a safeguard clause for renewed price jumps (La Moncloa, 29 September 2026).
2. The oil price: why the display lost seven dollars on Wednesday
The Brent futures contract for November expired on 30 September. That is the reason for the jump many price displays showed that day. On 29 September the November contract stood at USD 103.19 and the December contract at 96.31 on the same day (oilprice.com, 29 September 2026). Anyone looking at the Brent price since 30 September is seeing the December contract, around USD 96.38 in the morning (Trading Economics, 30 September 2026). The difference of just under seven dollars is the distance between two delivery months, not a collapse on the market.
When the front month is dearer than the one behind it, that is called backwardation. On 28 September that gap stood at more than seven dollars a barrel, according to DTN. It is a signal of scarcity, not of relief: whoever needs oil right now pays a premium.
How the week ran in the November contract: on 24 September Brent rose to a good 108 dollars during the session after the Houthi attacks. On 25 September the contract closed at USD 104.32; The National names 104.30 for the same day, Al Jazeera 105.77. On 28 September it left trading 0.96 dollars higher at USD 105.28, after a daily high of 108.83 (DTN, 28 September 2026). On 29 September it stood at USD 103.19.
3. Hormuz: the plan, the rejection and the disputed figures
The Iranian proposal and its rejection have changed nothing on the ground. Oil is still flowing through the strait, and exactly how much is as disputed among the trackers as it has been for weeks.
For September, Kpler names 7.4 million barrels a day through the strait and counts 19 tankers in the week to 27 September, 17 of them supertankers. For Middle East exports as a whole the same tracker names 12.8 million barrels a day in September, the highest figure since the war began (Al Jazeera, 28 September 2026). CNN also cites Kpler on 29 September, but there with 13.1 million barrels a day in the last week of September against 17.1 million before the war, so around 77 percent (CNN, 29 September 2026). Reuters names 9 million barrels a day for the seven-day average to 22 September, around 60 percent of the 2025 level (Reuters via Baird Maritime, 29 September 2026). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent named 15 to 22 million barrels a day against around 20 million before the war (Al Jazeera, 28 September 2026).
These figures measure different things: crude oil through the strait, all cargoes from the region, ship counts. On top of that, ships switch off their AIS transponders, and the US government is a party to the conflict. We therefore keep the Strait of Hormuz classified as severely restricted and set the figures out side by side instead of picking one of them.
The readings diverge just as widely. Matt Smith of Kpler said that at these volumes Iran is losing its leverage. In the same report Natasha Kaneva of JP Morgan countered that higher transit counts should not be mistaken for more safety, but showed that the industry can work under permanent risk (CNN, 29 September 2026).
4. Diesel: the export ban was off the table, then it was not
In Washington the debate over a ban on diesel exports went in every direction this week. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 23 September that a ban does not work: stop exports and the tanks fill up, the refineries throttle back, and petrol output falls as well. On 24 September the Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable put warnings in writing. On 26 September the White House signalled to Senator Ted Cruz that no ban was coming. On 27 September President Trump said it was being considered very seriously. On 28 September the White House said nothing had been decided and that three routes short of a ban were under examination: voluntary limits by producers, a suspension of the federal tax on diesel, and measures by the states (BOE Report, 23 September 2026; CNBC, 24 September 2026; Bloomberg, 26 September 2026; Yahoo Finance, 28 September 2026).
The figures behind it: US retail diesel cost USD 6.44 per gallon on 29 September, after the record of USD 6.53 on 22 September; a year earlier it was USD 3.68 (AAA). Distillate stocks stood at 107.4 million barrels on 18 September, around 12 percent below the five-year average. Refineries ran at 94.0 percent utilisation nationwide and at 96.5 percent on the Gulf Coast. Distillate exports fell in the same week to 1.331 million barrels a day, from 1.614 million the week before (EIA, report of 23 September 2026).
In Europe the picture is no easier. In the storage tanks of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp the gasoil stock averaged 12.33 million barrels in September (ENGINE, 25 September 2026). For the fourth quarter the consultancy Energy Aspects expects a jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels a day; European jet fuel imports from South Korea reached 129,000 barrels a day in September, the highest figure since October 2022 (Airways Magazine, 21 September 2026).
5. What this means for households
For heating oil, the reading of the EU Oil Bulletin for the week to 21 September applies, published on 24 September: Germany EUR 1,709.50 per 1,000 litres, Austria EUR 1,884.99, France EUR 1,937.42, Spain EUR 1,510.41, taxes included in each case. The EU average stood at EUR 1,752.17, EUR 40.58 above the previous week.
The portals survey differently and therefore arrive at other figures. On 29 September Tecson named 175.0 cents per litre as the order price for 3,000 litres of heating oil, 81.7 percent more than a year earlier. For Switzerland, heizoel24.ch named CHF 163.67 per 100 litres on 30 September for an order quantity of 3,000 litres. In France, prixfioul.fr stood at EUR 1,852 per 1,000 litres on 28 September.
Anyone heating with gas is watching the storage sites. The German fill level was around 57 percent on 26 September, the EU as a whole 70.87 percent (GIE AGSI+). The statutory target for most German storage sites is 80 percent by 1 November, and 45 percent for individual facilities. The Federal Network Agency describes supply as assured at present.
Anyone heating with electricity or district heating is affected indirectly through the gas and oil price, but with a delay and to a different degree depending on the contract. What the week means for your own household depends on consumption and on the supply contract. The calculation for that is on the home page.