1. What happened this week
On 9 October, after a phone call with President Putin, President Trump announced Russian diesel volumes for the American and the world market: over 300,000 tonnes at once, 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes after that. The Kremlin named no volumes and spoke only of a readiness to deliver (Al Jazeera, 9 October 2026). The same day the US Treasury issued General License 135, which permits trade in and imports of Russian diesel until 7 April 2027.
On 10 October a missile hit King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. The civil aviation authority GACA reports at least 13 dead and over 300 injured; the Houthi media office claims the attack, and the Saudi-led coalition calls it a war crime. According to GACA the airport stays closed until 17 October (Al Jazeera, 10 and 11 October 2026; ABC News, 13 October 2026). On the same day Russia eased its diesel export ban for an initial 500,000 tonnes (Kyiv Independent, 10 October 2026).
On 11 October the British UKMTO issued warnings 164-26 to 169-26. According to gCaptain six ships were affected, five tankers and a container ship, four of them in the Strait of Hormuz and one hit by a drone at the anchorage off Sohar in Oman. The UKMTO names no perpetrator. The same day President Trump declared an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine; Moscow has not confirmed it.
On 12 October Brent closed at USD 106.65, the highest close since 15 September. According to Bloomberg tanker data, at least ten supertankers and several Suezmax tankers bound for Fujairah had stopped or turned away by then (Bloomberg via gCaptain, 13 October 2026). The French navy intercepted the sanctioned tanker DF Peak about 450 nautical miles south of La Réunion (USNI News, 13 October 2026).
On 13 October the Saudi energy ministry confirmed an attack on an administrative building on the Aramco site in Dhahran, with a limited fire and no injuries; it names no perpetrator. Off the Bulgarian Black Sea coast two freighters were hit by drones, according to Prime Minister Radev, and one sank. OPEC's monthly report cut expected demand growth for 2026 for the sixth time in a row, to 0.2 million barrels a day, and raised the expectation for 2027 to around 2.6 million.
2. Hormuz: more attacks than ever, and a detour comes under pressure
The Reuters analysis of 14 October puts attacks on merchant ships that are still passing through the strait at their highest since the war began. In the 48 hours before alone there were at least five incidents, which by data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is about the same rate as from 3 to 5 October. Reuters does not name the data basis for the comparison. The US-led JMIC coordination centre continues to rate the threat in the strait as severe, the second-highest level, and has counted 140 confirmed incidents since 1 March.
What is new this week is less the number than the place. Ships were hit not only in the strait itself but at the anchorages in front of it and behind it: on 11 October a crude oil tanker off Sohar in Oman, and on 10 October an unknown party told captains by radio near Ras al-Khaimah to leave the anchorages. That is exactly where the most important detour hangs: supertankers wait outside the strait, while smaller ships run the risky stretch and transfer the cargo. If the receiving ships stay away, the system ties itself up. In the days before 13 October Bloomberg counted at least ten supertankers and several Suezmax tankers that stopped or turned away off Fujairah. According to a Windward analysis, 15 to 20 percent of the supertanker fleet is tied up in this system, and freight now makes up 25 to 30 percent of crude oil costs, against 1 to 3 percent before the war.
How much oil still gets through remains disputed, because the surveys measure different things. For September Kpler names around 16 million barrels a day, about 80 percent of the pre-war level, and for the week to 7 October, depending on the outlet reporting, 8.5 or 9.9 million barrels a day. The US Central Command CENTCOM stated on 13 October that American forces and regional partners controlled the strait, and named over 19 million barrels for 12 October; the report does not say whether that is a daily rate. CENTCOM and the Revolutionary Guards are parties to the conflict. Two Iranian officials told Reuters on 14 October that a complete closure is imminent, the aim being to keep the oil price high ahead of the US midterm elections.
3. Saudi Arabia: the war reaches the Aramco site in Dhahran
This week the Houthis shifted their fire onto Saudi territory. After the attack on Riyadh airport on 10 October with at least 13 dead came a further hit on Terminal 4 on 11 October with one dead and eleven injured, and on 13 October missile debris over residential areas that injured four people and damaged 15 houses. On 13 October the Saudi energy ministry then confirmed an attack on an administrative building on the Aramco site in Dhahran: a limited fire, no injuries, no perpetrator named. A company source told Reuters that a ballistic missile had damaged the top three floors of an office building. A Houthi representative had described oil and airport facilities as legitimate targets on 12 October.
So far this has not shown up in the volumes. According to its own report to OPEC, Saudi output in September was 8.372 million barrels a day, and according to the secondary sources in the same report 8.001 million; depending on the count, the increase over August is over 2 million or around 744,000 barrels a day. According to the energy minister, the East-West pipeline pumped 5.8 million barrels a day on 6 October against a capacity of 7 million; no more recent figure is available. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman called the events of recent weeks serious on 12 October and said the response must be equally serious. In the Red Sea no attack on a ship was reported between 11 and 14 October.
4. The diesel deal with Moscow and what can be seen of it so far
On 9 October, after a phone call with President Putin, President Trump announced Russian diesel volumes and named over 300,000 tonnes at once, 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes after that on Truth Social. The Kremlin named no volumes. The same day the US Treasury issued General License 135, which permits the sale, delivery and import of Russian diesel until 7 April 2027. On 10 October the Russian government eased its export ban for an initial 500,000 tonnes. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said on 12 October that exports could reach 3 to 3.5 million tonnes a month by the end of the year, and named a worldwide fall in diesel prices of 5 to 6 percent; that is a statement from the Russian side.
Whether Russia can deliver that is open. According to Vortexa, Russian diesel and gasoil exports in the third quarter of 2026 were around 190,000 barrels a day, after 690,000 in the second quarter and 850,000 in the first. Independently documented is the outage of the Volgograd refinery, with around 14 million tonnes of annual capacity, after the attack of 2 October. The Ukrainian defence ministry spoke on 4 October of over 51 percent of refining capacity knocked out; Ukraine is a party to the conflict, and the figure is not independently confirmed. According to President Zelensky, Ukraine has not attacked Russian refineries since 11 October and ties continuing that to a halt in Russian attacks on the Ukrainian power grid; Moscow has not confirmed the energy ceasefire announced by President Trump. Seven senators demanded on 11 October that the license be withdrawn; the Treasury considers it lawful.
In the market the announcement alone has had an effect. The NYMEX futures contract for heating oil and diesel fell 4.61 percent on 9 October to USD 4.73 per gallon. In the days after, it turned upwards again; we have not found a cleanly documented settlement for 13 October, and the figures from the services range between USD 4.82 and USD 4.94. There is no confirmed discharge of Russian diesel in the United States under the new license; the tanker Minerva Zen with around 280,000 barrels left St. Petersburg on 22 September, 17 days before the announcement.
5. What of this reaches prices
The EU Oil Bulletin for the week to 5 October shows two directions. Diesel fell in the weighted EU average to EUR 2.149 per litre, after the record of EUR 2.24 in the week to 28 September; for Germany the bulletin gives EUR 2,254 per 1,000 litres, 7.5 percent less than a week earlier. Heating oil, on the other hand, diverged: in Germany the price rose 1.7 percent to EUR 1,726.40 per 1,000 litres, in Austria it fell 3.2 percent to EUR 1,799.99, in France 1.6 percent to EUR 1,907.08 and in Spain 2.0 percent to EUR 1,495.34. In the weighted EU average it was EUR 1,741.94, after EUR 1,747.30 the week before.
The market services show slight increases for mid October. For Germany HeizOel24 names EUR 169.25 per 100 litres as the national average on 14 October, and for Austria EUR 182.11 on 13 October. prixfioul.fr names EUR 1,842 per 1,000 litres for fioul ordinaire in France on 13 October, calienteybarato.com EUR 1.746 per litre for Spain, and heizoel24.ch CHF 172.46 per 100 litres for Switzerland. The portals' figures and the bulletin's are not directly comparable, because the survey method and the order quantity differ.
In the United States the bottleneck remains in distillates. Stocks stood at 105.1 million barrels in the week to 2 October, about 12 percent below the five-year average, and on the East Coast, according to NYSERDA, at 9.3 million barrels, below the ten-year range. In New York State heating oil cost USD 6.210 per gallon in the week to 5 October, 67.0 percent more than a year earlier. For households that heat with heating oil, the EIA in its winter outlook of 6 October expects an average of USD 5.26 per gallon in the US from November to March, 34 percent more than the year before, and expenditure of USD 2,115, 21 percent more, with consumption 9 percent lower.