1. What happened this week
On 15 October Russia's defence ministry reported a Ukrainian attack on the Ryazan refinery, saying falling drone debris had started a fire. President Zelensky told the Financial Times that Kyiv was done with the energy ceasefire and that strikes on refineries would continue; President Trump called the attacks a disgrace that was pushing up the oil price (Al Jazeera, 15 October 2026). On the same day the IEA's Governing Board decided to accelerate the remaining 100 million barrels or so of the March release, including over 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible. Brent closed at 105.92 US dollars (Reuters via Euronext Live, 15 October 2026).
On 16 October Brent closed 3.94 dollars higher at 109.86 US dollars, its highest close since 19 May. Reuters cites fears of escalation, a missile heading for Yanbu that the Saudi-led coalition intercepted, the attacks near Hormuz, the strike on Ryazan, where a main crude distillation unit has been shut, and doubts about Russian diesel volumes (Reuters via Investing.com, 16 October 2026). Germany's Bundesrat approved the regulation that temporarily lowers the country's compulsory oil stocks from 90 to 82 days. President Trump suspended the Russia provisions of the Graham Act by executive order (ABC News, 17 October 2026).
On 17 October UKMTO took stock: in the week to 16 October at least twelve ships were attacked, one sank and two were disabled. US Central Command said the container ship GFS Pride, which sank, had been hit by a Revolutionary Guards projectile and not by a mine; the Revolutionary Guards for their part reported tankers striking mines, which has not been independently confirmed (Al Jazeera, 17 October 2026). On 18 October the JMIC coordination centre raised the threat in the Arabian Gulf to substantial and counted 153 confirmed incidents since 1 March. In Russia, Ukrainian drones hit the St Petersburg oil terminal and the Ruchi depot, according to Governor Beglov.
On 19 October Brent eased by 31 cents to 109.55 US dollars. A Kpler note put crude flows out of the Gulf in the previous week at about 8.5 million barrels a day as a seven-day average (Reuters via The Star, 19 October 2026). On 20 October the Houthis claimed attacks on an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and the airports of Riyadh and Abha; Saudi Arabia did not confirm this, and Reuters could not verify it. Brent rose as high as 111.99 dollars during trading, a five-month high, and closed at 108.79 dollars after President Pezeshkian met Pakistan's army chief Munir (Reuters via Business Recorder, 21 October 2026). About 30 nautical miles south-east of Al Faw in Iraq a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile, without damage.
On 21 October a tanker was hit about eleven nautical miles west of Bukha in Oman, and the fire was put out. At the Shaybah oilfield, debris from an intercepted drone killed two people, and in the evening King Fahd airport in Dammam was attacked, leaving at least one dead and eight injured. The US State Department ordered non-essential staff and families to leave Saudi Arabia, the US Department of Energy offered loans of up to 315,000 barrels of heating oil from its Northeast reserve, and Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced the first Russian diesel tanker to the United States for 22 October. Brent closed at 108.82 dollars. On 22 October the Revolutionary Guards navy claimed hits on seven ships, unconfirmed; in Asian trading Brent rose to 111.64 dollars by 06:26 GMT (Reuters via Business Recorder, 22 October 2026).
2. Hormuz: twice as many attacks as in September, and flow estimates far apart
The UK's UKMTO had counted 32 attacks on ships around the Arabian Peninsula in October by the 21st, against 16 in the whole of September (Bloomberg via gCaptain, 21 October 2026). In the week to 16 October, 10 of the 12 attacks it recorded took place in the Strait of Hormuz, with one each in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman; UKMTO says the true number is hard to capture because most ships that come under attack do not report to it. The attacks now reach well beyond the strait: on 16 October a tanker about 68 nautical miles north-east of Jubail, on 18 October a tug off Khor Fakkan, on 20 October a tanker off Al Faw in Iraq, on 21 October a tanker west of Bukha in Oman. The reports do not name an attacker. The container ship GFS Pride, set on fire in an attack on 13 October, has sunk; Singapore's port authority confirmed this on 14 October, and all 21 crew were evacuated unhurt. Iran spoke of a mine without offering evidence, CENTCOM on 17 October of a Revolutionary Guards projectile (gCaptain, 14 October 2026; Al Jazeera, 17 October 2026). The JMIC coordination centre still rates the threat in the strait as severe and raised the Arabian Gulf to substantial on 18 October, citing four attacks since 7 October that it attributes to Iran.
Both sides claim control. CENTCOM commander Cooper spoke on 17 October of 400 ships and 100 million barrels in a week and said the strait was controlled by the United States and its regional partners, not by Iran. The Revolutionary Guards reported on 17 and 18 October that tankers had struck mines, among them a supertanker on a route they had not authorised, and on 22 October claimed hits on four ships engaged in illegal oil transfers in the northern Gulf plus three more mine strikes west of the strait. None of these reports has been independently confirmed, and for the mine report of 17 October the JMIC found no evidence (gCaptain, 21 October 2026). CENTCOM and the Revolutionary Guards are parties to the conflict. Iran's First Vice President Aref said Iran had no choice but to enforce control over Hormuz (Bloomberg via The Irish Times, 20 October 2026).
How much oil still gets through is judged very differently by the data services. For the week to 18 October Kpler puts crude and condensate leaving the Persian Gulf at 24.6 million barrels a day, a weekly high, and Vortexa at 18 million; both set the pre-war level at a minimum of 18.5 million. A Kpler note of 16 October had put the week before at about 8.5 million barrels a day as a seven-day average, while another Kpler analysis gave 11.6 million for the seven days to 13 October, around 68 per cent of a pre-war baseline of 17.1 million. US Energy Secretary Wright puts crude flows out of the Gulf at around 80 per cent of the pre-war level. These figures measure different things and cannot be set off against each other; according to Kpler, preliminary figures are later revised upwards. On the diplomatic side little is visible: Foreign Minister Araghchi said on 21 October that talks with the United States were continuing via Pakistan and Qatar and that the Americans had agreed to the conditions but wanted to add clauses (Arab News Pakistan, 21 October 2026). That is Iran's account, and Washington has not confirmed it. The sequence is disputed: the United States wants to talk about the nuclear programme first, Iran about Hormuz and the easing of pressure.
3. Saudi Arabia: drones at the Shaybah oilfield, an attack on Dammam, Washington pulls staff out
This week the war moved closer to Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. On 16 October the Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted a ballistic missile heading for Yanbu, and on the same day the tanker ST3 was hit about 68 nautical miles north-east of Jubail. On 20 October the Houthis claimed attacks on an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and the airports of Riyadh and Abha; Saudi Arabia did not confirm this (Reuters via Lufkin Daily News, 20 October 2026). On 21 October debris from an intercepted drone killed two people at the Shaybah oilfield, a Filipino and a Nepali, and injured two others. According to the energy ministry, the drone had been aimed at the facility, a contractor's vehicle caught fire outside and operations were not affected; the ministry does not name an attacker (The National, 21 October 2026). That evening King Fahd International Airport in Dammam was attacked, leaving at least one dead and eight injured (Saudi civil aviation authority, Reuters); no one has claimed responsibility.
On 21 October the US State Department ordered non-essential staff and family members to leave Saudi Arabia. Spokesman Pigott said the Iran-backed Houthis had stepped up their hostilities against Saudi Arabia; according to officials, the US military is quietly reducing its presence in the region. Iran denies any role (CBS News, 21 October 2026). In Yemen, a Houthi missile attack on a government training camp in Shabwa province on 19 October killed 58 people, according to Reuters. Riyadh airport has been open again with restrictions since 18 October; every flight needs prior permission from the civil aviation authority, and Lufthansa has suspended its flights until 18 November (Aerospace Global News, 19 October 2026).
Loadings show the pressure only in part. At the largest Saudi terminal on the Gulf, five supertankers loaded on 12 and 13 October and one on 20 October, according to a Bloomberg analysis of satellite images (Bloomberg via gCaptain, 21 October 2026). For neighbouring Iraq, by contrast, Bloomberg reports high exports, above 3.4 million barrels a day in October (via The Irish Times, 20 October 2026).
4. Russia: the energy ceasefire is over, and the first diesel tanker heads for the United States
The energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine announced by President Trump is over. On 15 October Russia's defence ministry reported a Ukrainian drone attack on the Ryazan refinery; according to Reuters, the refinery then shut a main crude distillation unit. President Zelensky told the Financial Times that Kyiv was done with the energy ceasefire, and President Trump called the attacks a disgrace that was pushing up the world oil price. On 18 October Ukrainian drones hit the St Petersburg oil terminal and the Ruchi depot, according to Governor Beglov, killing one person and injuring five; Russia's defence ministry said it had repelled 1,015 drones over 15 regions. Zelensky said Russia had attacked energy, oil and gas facilities 76 times since Trump's announcement (Al Jazeera, 19 October 2026). Whether exports through the Baltic ports have been affected is not documented.
On diesel, by contrast, things are moving. On 13 October a tanker was loaded in Primorsk with about 40,000 tonnes of diesel bound for Morocco (LSEG data); Kremlin spokesman Peskov said on 15 October that the diesel was reaching world markets (The Moscow Times, 15 October 2026). How low the starting point is can be seen from a Bloomberg analysis of Vortexa data: from 1 to 10 October Russia's seaborne diesel exports stood at 146,000 barrels a day, the weakest level in the series since early 2016. On 16 October President Trump suspended the Russia provisions of the Graham Act by executive order, including tariffs of up to 500 per cent on Russian oil and gas; Zelensky said this helped only the Russians, and Republicans also criticised the move (ABC News, 17 October 2026). On 21 October Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that the first Russian diesel tanker would leave for the United States with 40,000 tonnes on 22 October and that more would follow; US special envoy Witkoff spoke of several tankers being prepared (Al Jazeera, 21 October 2026).
What happens next is open. Russia's ban on diesel exports by producers applies until 31 October, and no decision on the period after that has been taken. On 21 October the market was moved more by the prospect of talks on Ukraine: according to Reuters, it weighed on the oil price that day.
5. Reserves and prices: what reaches heating oil and diesel
The reserves are being opened faster. On 15 October the IEA's Governing Board noted that around 330 million barrels from the March collective action have been released; the remaining 100 million barrels or so are to follow more quickly, including over 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible. This is the rest of the 400 million barrel commitment, not an additional volume. In Germany, the Bundesrat on 16 October approved the regulation put forward by Economy Minister Reiche: compulsory stocks are temporarily lowered from 90 to 82 days, and the remaining 16 million barrels or so of Germany's share of about 19.5 million are released, diesel and heating oil first, then crude. The regulation names no volumes per product, the stockholding agency EBV offers according to market conditions, and whether everything will be taken up is open; in March about 470,000 of 600,000 tonnes were taken up (Reuters via onvista, 16 October 2026). In the United States the Department of Energy is offering loans of up to 315,000 barrels of heating oil from the Northeast reserve, with deliveries by 13 November; the reserve holds 1 million barrels and has been used only once since Hurricane Sandy in 2012 (Reuters via KFGO, 21 October 2026).
Consumer prices give a mixed picture. According to HeizOel24, heating oil in Germany cost a national average of EUR 171.94 per 100 litres on 22 October, 0.83 per cent less than the day before, after EUR 173.83 on 20 October. For Austria HeizOel24 gives EUR 182.58 per 100 litres on 20 October, and heizoel24.ch gives CHF 174.51 for Switzerland. In France fioul ordinaire cost EUR 1,859 per 1,000 litres on 20 October according to prixfioul.fr, and in Spain gasóleo C cost EUR 1.750 per litre on 19 October according to calienteybarato.com. The portals' figures are not directly comparable with each other, because survey methods and order volumes differ. In Germany low water adds to the strain: the Rhine gauge at Kaub stood at 16 centimetres on the evening of 19 October and at minus 6 centimetres on 1 October, the lowest since records began; in early October pumps in several cities in the west ran dry at times, mostly for diesel, while the industry association en2x says supply remains secure (Berliner Zeitung, 20 October 2026). In France, on the evening of 18 October, 16.2 per cent of filling stations had no diesel or no E10 (Selectra, 20 October 2026). For October to December the French state is paying a second fuel allowance of EUR 100 to households with a 2024 reference income of no more than EUR 22,770 per tax share; those who received it from April to September have been getting it automatically since 16 October, and everyone else can apply from 27 October (impots.gouv.fr). TotalEnergies is giving its own customers a discount of EUR 200 per cubic metre of heating oil, or 20 cents per litre, from 1 November 2026 to 31 January 2027; details such as the minimum volume and delivery date are still open (Selectra, 14 October 2026).
In the United States, residential heating oil cost an average of USD 6.190 per gallon excluding taxes in the week of 19 October according to the EIA, after USD 6.138 a week earlier, and USD 6.417 in New York State. Diesel at the pump cost USD 6.31 per gallon according to AAA, after USD 6.51 a month earlier (Al Jazeera, 21 October 2026). Crude stocks fell by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million in the week to 16 October, against an expected draw of 0.82 million, while distillate stocks rose by 1.68 million barrels (EIA via Reuters).