1. Live Brent and Heating Oil Pass-Through
The most important driver of the German heating oil price is not politics or seasonality, but the global crude oil price, measured by the reference index Brent. Brent is the physically tradable North Sea oil that serves as the benchmark for around two thirds of all global crude oil transactions. On 23 July 2026 Brent traded at around 88 to 96 dollars per barrel, itself a six-week high at the time. As of 11 September 2026, Brent trades at 103.98 dollars per barrel, having touched a weekly high of 107.60 dollars the same day, and has traded above 100 dollars all week, driven by the still-active Hormuz Strait crisis and a fresh escalation around the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint (see risk factors section below). The concrete daily value is continuously updated on our methodology page and in the energy cost calculator (see data sources section below).
The bridge from the Brent world market price to the German heating oil end-consumer price is called the pass-through effect. This effect is well researched and very stable on average over recent years. The rule of thumb: For every 10 US dollars of Brent change, the German heating oil litre price changes by around 6 to 8 cents. At current Brent levels, a correspondingly larger share of every litre reflects the Brent component, with the rest split across margin, tax and CO2.
What this rule of thumb does not capture are three things. First, the euro exchange rate component: Brent is traded in dollars, the German heating oil bill in euros. If the euro depreciates against the dollar, the heating oil price rises even with stable Brent. Second, the crack-spread component: the refining markup, that is the difference between crude oil price and heating oil wholesale price, fluctuates with the season and refinery utilisation. Third, the regional logistics component: in southern Germany, heating oil prices are typically 2 to 5 cents per litre higher than on the North Sea coast, because tanker truck distances are longer and refinery connections differ.
Anyone who wants to verify the pass-through effect for themselves can do a simple balance exercise: write down where Brent stood the last time you ordered heating oil. Write down where Brent stands today. The difference times 6 to 8 cents per 10 dollars roughly gives the expected litre price change. This works fairly well for most months. If the real price deviates more strongly, it is usually down to one of the three components above (euro exchange rate, crack-spread, region).
2. Heating Oil Price Structure 2026: Where Does Your Money Go?
A 3000-litre tank fill costs around 4,650 euros gross today (Tecson, 10 September 2026: 155.0 cents per litre times 3000 litres), up from around 4,000 to 4,200 euros on 23 July 2026 and about 3,000 to 3,300 euros in May 2026, with regional variation. Behind that number is a clearly traceable cost cascade. The table below illustrates that cascade with a worked example anchored to 23 July 2026 price levels; by 11 September 2026 the absolute euro amounts are higher across every line (see Key Facts above), while the structural logic stays the same. Values are estimates, no guarantee, because Brent and crack-spread fluctuate daily.
| Component | Cents/Litre | Share | 3000-L tank EUR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | ~76 ct | ~55 % | ~2,280 EUR |
| Refining margin / crack-spread | ~7 ct | ~5 % | ~210 EUR |
| Logistics / tanker truck | ~5 ct | ~4 % | ~150 EUR |
| Fuel tax (BMF fixed) | 6.135 ct | ~4 % | ~184 EUR |
| CO2 surcharge (BEHG 2026, 65 EUR/t) | 17.22 ct | ~13 % | ~517 EUR |
| Trader margin | ~4 ct | ~3 % | ~120 EUR |
| VAT (19 %) | ~22 ct | ~16 % | ~660 EUR |
| Gross end price | ~1.37 EUR | 100 % | ~4,110 EUR |
* Brent value varies daily. Worked example as of 23 July 2026 (Brent 88 to 96 dollars, gross end price around 1.37 EUR/L), up from a gross end price of roughly 1.05 EUR/L in May 2026. By 11 September 2026 Brent had risen further to 103.98 dollars and the gross end price to 1.55 EUR/L (Tecson, 10 September 2026); the euro amounts above are therefore lower than the current price, though the structural logic still applies. The breakdown is a typical assumption, no guarantee for your individual delivery.
The striking feature is the CO2 component at 17 cents per litre, which for 3000 litres adds up to a hefty 517 euros of pure CO2 burden in 2026. In the 23 July 2026 worked example above, the CO2 surcharge's share of the total price had fallen to roughly 13 percent as the Brent component rose amid the Hormuz crisis, even though the absolute euro amount was unchanged; with Brent and the gross price higher still by 11 September 2026, that share has narrowed further, while the CO2 charge itself stays fixed at 17.22 cents per litre and 517 euros per 3000-litre fill regardless of Brent. This component has been rising along a fixed BEHG path since 2021; early EU ETS-2 auctions begin in 2027 (national corridor expected around 55 to 65 euros per tonne), before the system moves to full EU ETS-2 market-based pricing from 2028. Background on the conceptual classification of the CO2 levy can be found in the glossary. Anyone who wants to see the complete CO2 price path up to 2030 with a tank fill example calculation: detailed breakdown on our CO2 Price Heating Oil 2026 to 2030 Calculator sub-page. There the BEHG stages 2024 to 2026 are documented with Klimageld status and avoidance strategies.
The fuel tax for heating oil in Germany is 6.135 cents per litre and has been stable for years. It is a pure federal tax (no state-dependent share) and differs significantly from the diesel fuel tax (47.04 cents per litre), reflecting the political preferential treatment of heating oil as a social fuel. The VAT at 19 percent applies to everything: the Brent component, margin, logistics, tax and CO2 surcharge. This is a cascading component that automatically amplifies every price increase.
What does the heating oil price actually cost you per year?
Calculate in 60 seconds with your real consumption values what a Brent move means for your household. Live Brent is linked in the calculator.
Calculate in 60 seconds3. Seasonality: When Is Heating Oil Typically Cheapest?
Heating oil in Germany has shown a clear seasonal pattern for decades, driven by structural demand. In summer, little heating happens, wholesale stocks build up, refineries run summer optimisation (more petrol, less heating oil yield from the crack). In late autumn the pattern flips: heating demand rises, stocks are drawn down, refineries switch to winter yield. The result is a typical sawtooth curve with a low point in May to July and a high point in October to February.
The following visualisation shows the average seasonal movement 2020 to 2025, as a percentage deviation from the annual mean. The values are a simplified summary, not a point forecast. Individual years can deviate dramatically; in particular 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine showed a broken seasonal pattern with a summer peak. 2026 has again shown that geopolitical shocks can override the pattern: a mid-July Hormuz Strait re-escalation pushed prices up sharply during what is normally the cheapest season, echoing the broken 2022 pattern. As of 11 September 2026, with Brent above 100 dollars and German heating oil at 1.55 euros per litre, 2026 remains alongside 2022 as one of the years where the summer low did not hold, and the price rise has continued well past the northern-hemisphere summer.
Averages 2020 to 2025, sources heizoel24 aggregator and MWV statistics. Individual years can deviate dramatically (examples 2022 and now 2026). As of 11 September 2026, no guarantee for future seasonal patterns.
What the data concretely shows
First: The May-July range is the most stable phenomenon. In every year from 2020 to 2025, with the exception of the summer peak in 2022, the heating oil price in these three months was below the annual mean. Second: The December-January peak is not always the highest point; often the second peak lies in February, when wholesale stocks are depleted in winter and refineries simultaneously plan maintenance. Third: The spread between min and max within a year is typically 10 to 20 percent, in normal years closer to 10 percent, in crisis years (2022, and now 2026) significantly more.
What seasonality does not explain: geopolitical shocks. A Hormuz escalation or an OPEC cut decision can move the price by 20 to 50 percent within days, regardless of whether it is May or December, as the active 2026 Hormuz Strait crisis is currently demonstrating. Anyone who wants to use seasonality as a strategy should therefore always factor in the current geopolitical situation (see risk factors section below).
4. 2026 Forecast with Disclaimer
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes a monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook with Brent price forecasts for the next 12 to 24 months. The July Short-Term Energy Outlook, published 8 July 2026 and therefore predating the mid-July Hormuz re-escalation, saw a Brent average of 81.91 dollars per barrel for 2026 and 64.76 dollars for 2027 as a pre-escalation base case. That estimate was revised upward in the September Short-Term Energy Outlook, published 9 September 2026, to 91 dollars for 2026 and 74 dollars for 2027, with the EIA noting prices in the coming months are expected to stay near the August monthly average. As of 11 September 2026, actual Brent (103.98 dollars) trades above even that revised base case, driven by the active Hormuz crisis and the latest escalation around Bab el-Mandeb. The EIA updates its estimate monthly; this forecast often fluctuates between publications.
Translated into German heating oil expectations: with Brent now at 103.98 dollars, the heating oil price stands at 1.55 euros per litre (Tecson, 10 September 2026), above the top of what was previously labelled the "crisis scenario" below. If the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb situation calms and Brent returns toward the EIA's September base case of around 91 dollars, a retreat toward the crisis band would be plausible. If the crisis deepens further, prices could push higher still. These remain scenarios, not probability statements.
Brent ~60-70 dollars
Calmer conditions with Brent back near the lower end of recent ranges. Seasonal fluctuations as usual, May-July the cheapest. Not the current situation.
~1.00-1.10 EUR/LBrent ~80-100 dollars
Hormuz escalation, OPEC cut or sanctions expansion. As of 11 September 2026, Brent (103.98 dollars) and heating oil (1.55 EUR/L) sit above this band; no real relief even in summer.
~1.15-1.40 EUR/LBrent ~50-55 dollars
World recession, OPEC release or accelerated energy transition substitution. May-July with low points. Currently the least likely of the three given the active crisis.
~0.85-0.95 EUR/LThese three scenarios cover most of the probability space that the EIA and independent institutes had mapped out; as of 11 September 2026 events have moved the market beyond the crisis band. Which scenario holds next is not predictable. The honest pratfall note: Nobody knows where the heating oil price will stand in 6 months. Anyone who claims to be able to give a concrete point forecast typically overlooks the risk factors listed individually in the next section.
For your own household planning this means: plan with the baseline scenario as the expected value, plan financially with a buffer for the crisis scenario, and be glad if the relaxation scenario materialises. That is less sexy than a concrete forecast, but financially safer. Anyone who wants to see a concrete example calculation for their own household can run the energy cost calculator through the three scenarios.
5. Risk Factors 2026: What Can Move the Price?
A forecast is only ever as good as the list of risks it does not account for. As of 11 September 2026, five factors are under observation that can significantly move the heating oil price within weeks or even days. Factor 1 is no longer hypothetical: it is an active, unfolding event. The rest are to be read as scenarios, none given as a probability.
Factor 1: Hormuz Escalation (active event)
The Strait of Hormuz is the most important maritime chokepoint of global oil logistics. Around 20 percent of globally traded crude oil and an even higher share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through this strait between Iran and Oman. This risk has materialized repeatedly through 2026 and, as of 11 September 2026, remains an active crisis rather than a scenario. A February/March escalation pushed Brent above 100 US dollars per barrel. A US-Iran memorandum on 18 June then de-escalated tensions and brought prices back down to roughly 74 to 84 dollars. Since mid-July, a renewed escalation, including US strikes on Iran and Houthi attacks on tankers, drove Brent to a six-week high of 88 to 96 dollars by 22 to 23 July. The strait itself is now de facto closed to shipping: Iran's parliamentary speaker has stated the country holds full control and is not permitting reopening, and ship-tracking data confirm only a fraction of normal traffic is getting through. Kpler's ten-day average in early September stood at around 13 ships a day, Lloyd's List measured roughly 12 transits a day between 26 August and 1 September, and the IMF PortWatch average since March has been around 7 a day, against roughly 100 ships and 20 million barrels a day before the crisis; separate US claims of 30 to 40 ships a night are not confirmed by ship trackers. Independent day-counters put the closure at its 195th day on 11 September 2026. On top of that, the Houthi movement seized the Yemeni Red Sea port of Mokha, near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, on 11 September, opening a second chokepoint risk: Bab el-Mandeb carries around 12 percent of global oil transport, and Saudi Arabia has begun rerouting some Asia-bound exports via the Mediterranean. Brent reached 103.98 dollars on 11 September, with a weekly high of 107.60 dollars the same day, and has traded above 100 dollars all week. A further escalation at either chokepoint, or a military conflict with physical logistics disruption, would still be capable of triggering additional Brent spikes within days, depending on duration and intensity.
Factor 2: OPEC+ Cuts or Releases
The OPEC+ under Saudi Arabian leadership decides regularly on production quotas. At its meeting on 5-6 July 2026, OPEC+ decided to add 188,000 barrels per day of production for August, a modest release rather than a cut. OPEC+ has held further meetings since, including the one originally scheduled for 2 August 2026; we do not have verified current data on the outcome of the most recent OPEC+ meetings. If the group tightens policy (for example pausing or reversing prior increases), Brent can rise further short-term. If conversely it accelerates releases, Brent can fall. Both directions remain possible, and OPEC+ policy is a factor to watch alongside the active Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb situation.
Factor 3: US Sanctions and Shadow Fleet
EU and US sanctions against Russian oil exports have created a shadow fleet of old tankers that delivers Russian oil to India, China and other non-sanctioning countries. As of 11 September 2026 this logistics continues to flow, with periodic sanctions tightenings that can cause bottlenecks. If the US or the EU tightens secondary sanctions (that is, penalties against tanker owners, insurers and port states), Russian oil volume in the world market may decline, and Brent may rise as a result. As of 11 September 2026 this remains a risk, not the main scenario, and secondary to the active Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb situation.
Factor 4: EU ETS-2 Transition 2027/2028
The CO2 price for heating oil in Germany is due to move from the national BEHG fixed-price logic to the EU-wide ETS-2 system with market-based pricing. Early ETS-2 auctions are set to begin in 2027, with a national corridor expected around 55 to 65 euros per tonne, ahead of full EU ETS-2 market-based pricing from 2028. This structural change can move the heating oil price in both directions: if the market lands below the current fixed price of 65 euros per tonne, there will be short-term relief. If the market lands significantly above (for example in a cold winter or geopolitical crisis), an additional layer may emerge. A complete breakdown with the path up to 2030 can be found on our CO2 Price Heating Oil sub-page.
Factor 5: European Winter Weather
The most trivial but often underestimated factor. A cold winter in Central Europe increases heating demand, and with it heating oil spot prices. In crisis years (example 2022/2023), a single particularly cold February can cause the wholesale price to jump by 10 to 20 percent. Weather forecasts for the 2026/2027 winter season remain uncertain this far ahead; we do not have verified, current long-range model output for this update as of 11 September 2026. For ordering planning this means: anyone who relies on seasonality (buy in May-July) normally hedges against an extremely cold winter, even if it does not materialise, though the 2026 Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb crisis has already overridden the summer low regardless of weather.
What would +30 % Brent mean for your household?
In the energy cost calculator you can run your own crisis scenario, with your real consumption and your household size. Live Brent as anchor, scenario slider included.
Run crisis scenario6. Seasonal Ordering Strategy
The strategic question is not "when is the absolute cheapest day" (nobody knows that), but "how do I reduce my price risk over the heating season". Here are the three most practical strategies for households with a heating oil tank, in descending order of risk spreading.
- Full tank in May or June (standard strategy) The simplest variant: fill the tank once a year, ideally in May or June, when statistically the lowest price is expected. Advantage: no effort, clear planning. Disadvantage: full market price exposure on the May-June daily price. If a geopolitical shock happens on exactly those two days, you are out of luck. This strategy works well for most households in normal years, but does not cover crisis years such as 2022 or 2026. Households that filled up in April or early May 2026, before the mid-July Hormuz re-escalation, benefited clearly; as of 11 September 2026 an acute crisis remains active and has intensified further (see risk factors), so the crisis-override strategy below currently takes priority over this default recommendation.
- Half-tank strategy (third split) Instead of filling once in full, split the tank volume into three parts: one third in May, one third in July, one third in September. Advantage: price risk is averaged across three different days, fluctuation is reduced. Disadvantage: three ordering operations instead of one, marginally higher logistics costs per litre (tanker truck drive-up with smaller quantity). This strategy is optimal for price-conscious households with medium to large tank capacity (3000 litres or more). It does not eliminate the average seasonal pattern (the summer low is retained), but it hedges against a single bad ordering day.
- Crisis override (immediate fill on escalation) If a clear crisis signal comes (Hormuz escalation, OPEC cut, sanctions tightening), fill immediately regardless of seasonality. Rationale: seasonal advantages of 10 to 20 percent are completely overshadowed by crisis spikes of 30 to 100 percent. Anyone who did not fill in May 2022 after the start of the Ukraine war but waited for the usual summer order paid significantly more in August 2022. As of 11 September 2026 this is precisely the situation again, and more acutely than in July: Hormuz-related escalation combined with the Houthi seizure of Mokha near Bab el-Mandeb has pushed Brent to 103.98 dollars (weekly high 107.60 dollars) and German heating oil to 1.55 euros per litre (Tecson, 10 September 2026, up 11.5 percent versus a month earlier and 64.9 percent versus a year earlier), so anyone who delayed their usual summer order is now paying substantially more than in July or May. Pratfall: this strategy only works if you identify the crisis signals correctly. That is not trivial, which is why we have an optional Brent alert newsletter that informs you about larger Brent moves (see newsletter card at the bottom of this page).
Comparison with the heat pump as a long-term alternative
Ordering strategies are a short-term optimisation within the existing heating oil economy. They lower energy costs typically by 5 to 15 percent compared to a naive strategy (refill any time when the tank is empty). A fundamentally different answer is the substitution of fossil heating. A heat pump decouples you from Brent price risk and the CO2 burden completely. With the current BAFA heat pump subsidy of up to 70 percent, the payback is achievable for many households within 8 to 12 years.
Anyone seriously considering switching to a heat pump: details on the subsidy, prerequisites and application path can be found on our sub-page Heat Pump Subsidy 2026 Calculator. Anyone who wants to see the complete CO2 path up to 2030 with avoidance strategies: sub-page CO2 Price Heating Oil 2026 to 2030 Calculator. Both sub-pages together give you the full picture for a well-founded long-term decision.