Oil price today: Brent at $114.04 on 29 October 2026

2. Why the oil price is swinging so hard

As of 22 October: after two calmer sessions, Brent is climbing again. On Tuesday, 20 October, Brent hit $111.99 intraday, a five-month high, but settled 76 cents lower at $108.79. Reuters weighed Iranian President Pezeshkian's meeting with Pakistan's army chief Munir, with Pakistan acting as a go-between, against continued Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and reports of attacks on ships. The WTI November contract expired the same day at $101.79. On Wednesday Brent settled almost unchanged at $108.82: possible progress towards talks on Ukraine weighed, while a larger-than-expected draw in US crude stocks, down 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million (EIA), the lack of dialogue between Washington and Tehran and attacks on tankers lent support (Reuters). By 06:26 GMT on Thursday Brent was $2.82 higher at $111.64. Reuters cites a drone near the Shaybah oilfield whose debris killed two people, an attack on Dammam airport that killed at least one, the US order for non-emergency staff and families to leave Saudi Arabia, the US stock draw and Revolutionary Guards claims of ships hit, which have not been independently confirmed. At the same time, Bloomberg reported on 21 October, based on Kpler data, strong exports from the Persian Gulf: 24.6 million barrels a day of crude and condensate in the week to 18 October (Vortexa: 18 million). That is a different measure from earlier weekly Kpler figures and cannot be set against them.

Brent climbed from just over $106 to above $111 between 14 and 20 October, and most of that came in a single session. On Wednesday, 14 October, the December contract settled at $106.06 (own calculation from the Reuters report of the following day). On Thursday Brent barely moved, settling at $105.92, as investors weighed possible US steps to ease restrictions on the shadow fleet of tankers while the conflict kept a risk premium in place. WTI, by contrast, gained 3% to $97.97 after the EIA reported an 8.6 million barrel draw in US crude stocks (Reuters).

Friday, 16 October, was the big day: Brent jumped $3.94, or 3.7%, to $109.86, its highest settlement since 19 May. Reuters lists four reasons. Escalation fears, with Energy Aspects pointing to unverified Israeli reports that Iran may be preparing a pre-emptive strike. A ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu, which the Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed. More attacks near Hormuz, which according to Kpler drove Gulf crude flows sharply lower. And a Ukrainian strike after which Russia's Ryazan refinery halted a primary crude distillation unit, raising doubts about how much diesel Russia can actually supply. On Monday, 19 October, Brent dropped more than $3 at one point as investors booked profits after the five-month high; by the close the loss had shrunk to 0.3%, at $109.55 (Reuters). On Tuesday morning Reuters reported prices of up to $111.05: the Houthis had claimed strikes on Saudi energy, airport and military targets on Monday, which Saudi Arabia did not immediately confirm and Reuters could not verify, and Kpler counted at least 18 ships attacked in two weeks, which it said keeps the risk premium intact. At 12:24 CEST Brent stood at $111.29 (HeizOel24). We make no forecast of where it goes next.

On Friday, 9 October, two forces pulled against each other, and in diesel the relief won. Hurricane Isaias pushed up: ahead of landfall, producers shut in more than 70% of crude output in US waters of the Gulf of Mexico, on top of the threat to shipping in the Gulf and at the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's remark that the talks with Iran were productive and China's plan to resume fuel exports after its holiday week pushed down (Reuters). Brent settled at $104.72. The diesel market moved more: Trump announced that Russia would immediately supply over 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the American and global market, another 500,000 tonnes in November and a million after that (Truth Social via Al Jazeera); the Kremlin confirmed it was ready to supply, without figures. The US futures contract for diesel and heating oil fell 4.6% to $4.73 a gallon (DTN), which also cites reports that China will resume fuel exports. On 10 October Russia eased its export ban, at first for 500,000 tonnes (TASS).

Over the weekend, with the exchanges closed, the Gulf grew more dangerous. Two more outbound tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz on 10 and 11 October, with no perpetrator named (UKMTO via gCaptain); an attack on Riyadh airport, claimed by the Houthis, killed at least 12 people on 10 October (GACA via Al Jazeera); and Tehran called the US reply to its conditions insufficient on 11 October (Reuters). We do not predict how the market reacts on Monday.

On Thursday 8 October two supply risks came together. Attacks on tankers now reach deep into the Persian Gulf: on the evening of 7 October Britain's UKMTO reported a tanker hit by several projectiles about 51 nautical miles north of Qatar, with casualties among the crew; it named no perpetrator (via Middle East Eye). At the same time Hurricane Isaias shut in 62.9 per cent of oil output in the US Gulf of Mexico, 1.28 million barrels a day (Marine Minerals Administration via gCaptain). On top came reports that Washington had finalised plans for possible strikes on Iran before the congressional elections, without a final decision (investingLive). Brent rose 4.1 per cent to $104.28 (Bloomberg via Rigzone). The price came back from its intraday high when President Trump wrote that the US would not attack Iran before the elections on 3 November; the talks were productive, he said, but the blockade would stay in force (ABC News). Analyst Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee cites tight product supply, high transport costs and a high risk of Iranian escalation as reasons why prices are staying high (Bloomberg via Rigzone).

On Friday 9 October a projectile struck a supertanker about 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera in the UAE, identified by shipping sources as the Gem No.2; the fire has been put out (UKMTO via Reuters). The IRGC Navy announced that it would pursue ships on routes without its authorisation across the whole region (Tasnim). That is not a closure of the whole Gulf: on 4 October the JMIC rated the threat in the Arabian Gulf as “moderate” and in the Strait of Hormuz as “severe” (JMIC). It is shipping that is getting dearer above all: the freight rate for a supertanker from the Gulf to China hit a record $1.3 million a day on 5 October (Baltic Exchange via Bloomberg). Details on the strait are on the page Hormuz and fuel prices.

Two weekend decisions set the tone for the start of the week. On Sunday 4 October the seven core OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, left their November output targets unchanged in a short online meeting. In August they produced about 25 million barrels a day, roughly 5 million less than in February before the war began, because Gulf exports are running at only 60 to 80 per cent of normal; it is the war, not the quotas, that currently limits volumes (Reuters via EnergyNow, investingLive, 4 October). The capacity review on which the 2027 quotas are to be based was pushed from September to mid-November; the core countries meet again on 1 November, the full group at the end of November. The second decision is the release from reserves: the G7 are releasing 100 million barrels of crude and diesel through the IEA and reject export restrictions (Trading Economics, 5 October); according to Reuters, EU countries had earlier agreed on the French proposal of 50 million barrels of diesel plus 50 million barrels of crude from IEA members, and Trump wrote: “Europe has just agreed to release a massive amount of their heavily stocked Diesel Oil” (Reuters via Business Recorder, 3 October). Data also showed Gulf exports above pre-crisis levels on four of seven days in the last week of September (Trading Economics). On Monday morning Brent stood at $101.84, about 0.4 per cent below Friday's settlement (HeizOel24, 07:03 CEST; our calculation). Saxo analyst Ole Hansen now sees the strain in products rather than crude: “The main stress in the energy market is no longer crude availability … but rather refined product supply” (Reuters via Business Recorder). Thursday and Friday, the China report, the tanker hit and the G7 decision, follow below.

Two reports shaped the last two trading days. On Thursday 1 October the December contract rose 4.37 per cent to $102.31 after Reuters reported that Chinese refiners were suspending exports of refined products except to Hong Kong and Macau “until further notice”; the source is four people familiar with the matter, there is no official confirmation from China, and Reuters names the Wall Street Journal report of a third US carrier as a further driver (Reuters via Dawn). On Friday 2 October the price eased: Brent stood at $100.03 at 13:14 and briefly fell below $99 in the afternoon, after the G7 announcement that Trading Economics gives as the reason (HeizOel24.ch, Trading Economics). The G7 decided to release 100 million barrels through the IEA, starting immediately and spread over four months, with a “substantial” share of diesel in the first 20 days (The Irish Times, 16:25).

The strait also remains dangerous. On Thursday, according to Britain's UKMTO, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unidentified projectile; a fire broke out, the crew was unhurt and no one was named as responsible (Asharq Al-Awsat). On 29 September two ships had been hit (Gulf News). The same day Iran issued threats: chief negotiator and parliament speaker Ghalibaf said “In a region where we cannot sell oil, no one else will sell oil either; or if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will remain safe”, and IRGC spokesman Mohebbi said “Any vessel attempting to pass through sustains damage, either we strike it, or it hits a mine” (Times of Israel). In the US account the strait is under control; the IRGC, by contrast, called it closed and disputed that it is open; both accounts come from parties to the conflict.

Trump said on 1 October: “We have to make that decision: We blow them up or make a deal.” And: “It's gonna end very soon, one way or the other.” He left open whether to resume the bombing after the election on 3 November. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group left San Diego on 27 September; its arrival in the Arabian Sea, where the USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington already are, is expected between the end of October and the end of November; the report cites about 9,000 sailors and Marines (Gulf News, 2 October).

The week before, in brief: on Monday 28 September Brent rose about one per cent after Trump's no to Iran's seven-day plan; a premium of more than four dollars at times melted away when Qatar announced separate talks (investingLive, Reuters). On Tuesday the price fell 2.6 per cent to $102.59 as Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at Yanbu (Reuters via The Nation); on Wednesday, the November contract's last trading day, it rose 0.9 per cent to $103.53 (Bloomberg via Rigzone). The US reply to Iran's plan reached Tehran via Qatar on 30 September: the two sides largely agree on the steps but are divided over their sequencing (Gulf News). What the state of the talks means for prices, with scenarios, is on Hormuz plan rejected: what it means for fuel prices.

4. Dates until year-end that affect the oil price and fuel prices

These are the documented dates between now and year-end. What will be decided at them is not known, and we do not forecast how the oil price will react.

6. Frequently asked questions about today's oil price