1. Where storage stands today
On the 1 November 2026 reference date German gas storage was 61.4 per cent full (dpa-AFX from AGSI data of Friday 30 October; a later dpa report gives 61.2 per cent), while the EU stood at 74.89 per cent on 28 October (GIE via TASS). That puts Germany roughly 13 points below the EU level (own calculation from 61.4 and 74.89 per cent, reference dates three days apart). A year ago German storage was about 75 per cent full at this time (dpa-AFX, 30 October) and European storage 82.8 per cent; the EU is 14.79 points below its five-year average and lower than on any 28 October since records began in 2011, and several countries have been net withdrawers for two weeks (TASS). At the end of September the Bundesnetzagentur had reported 57.7 per cent (ZDFheute, 30 September); about 3.7 points have been added since (own calculation from two sources). The figures come from different sources with their own reference dates, so we show them side by side and do not average them.
For the country breakdown, the earlier reading: on the morning of 22 September 2026 German storage held 140.7 terawatt-hours of working gas, 56.8 per cent of a technical capacity of 247.5 TWh; the previous day saw 711 gigawatt-hours injected and just 5 withdrawn, lifting the fill level by 0.29 percentage points (GIE AGSI). The EU stood at 69.9 per cent then, the Netherlands at 55.5, France at 80.3, Italy at 85.8 and Poland at 98.5 per cent. The table shows all AGSI values for the gas day of 21/22 September; newer country figures from that source were not available to us for this update.
| Country | Fill level (22 Sep) | Working gas | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU total | 69.9% | 791.5 TWh | 1,131.6 TWh |
| Germany | 56.8% | 140.7 TWh | 247.5 TWh |
| Netherlands | 55.5% | 80.0 TWh | 144.0 TWh |
| Belgium | 60.0% | 4.6 TWh | 7.6 TWh |
| Austria | 67.8% | 68.0 TWh | 100.3 TWh |
| Spain | 73.4% | 26.3 TWh | 35.8 TWh |
| Czech Republic | 74.9% | 34.0 TWh | 45.3 TWh |
| France | 80.3% | 99.5 TWh | 123.9 TWh |
| Italy | 85.8% | 174.5 TWh | 203.4 TWh |
| Poland | 98.5% | 36.3 TWh | 36.8 TWh |
The gap was made in spring. The 2025/26 winter was harsh and storage came out of the heating season at around 30 per cent (Wikipedia, March 2026); then came the war. The closure of Hormuz from March 2026 removed Qatari LNG from the world market, and the strike on Ras Laffan on 18 March took out 17 per cent of Qatar's capacity for three to five years (Wikipedia). Injecting was expensive all summer, and operators booked cautiously.
2. How far injection can get by 1 November, and what winter needs
The target has been missed: instead of a calculated average of 70 per cent (80 per cent per facility, 45 per cent for six named sites such as Rehden), storage stood at 61.4 per cent on 1 November, about 9 points short (own calculation from 61.4 and 70 per cent); the ordinance provides no sanctions, and the fill-level targets expire on 31 March 2027 (dpa, 1 November 2026). At the end of September Minister Reiche instructed Sefe to buy and store eight terawatt-hours of gas by 15 December (ZDFheute, 30 September 2026); set against the 247.5 TWh capacity, eight terawatt-hours correspond to roughly 3 percentage points of fill level (AGSI capacity, own calculation). By 1 February 30 per cent is required, 40 per cent for four Bavarian sites (Bundesnetzagentur).
The assessments diverge. A spokeswoman for economy minister Katherina Reiche said gas supply was “secure for the coming winter even at current storage levels”; actual withdrawals, ongoing imports and further precautions also mattered. The Bundesnetzagentur calls supply stable and rates the risk of a tight gas supply as low; its president Klaus Müller: “It is no longer essential for secure gas supply that the storage targets are met” (t-online, 1 November). INES managing director Sebastian Heinermann, by contrast, calls the missed target a “serious warning signal”: Germany enters the heating season with smaller safety reserves, and vulnerability grows in very low temperatures or if imports are disrupted. Timm Kehler of the association Zukunft Gas points out that more gas is in store than was withdrawn last winter, but warns of price spikes in cold weather (all dpa-AFX, 1 November 2026). At EU level a 90 per cent target applies at some point between 1 October and 1 December with ten points of downward flexibility; according to TASS the Commission is prepared to lower it to 80 per cent this year (TASS, 30 October).
What matters is demand, not the target. The storage operators' association INES works with the 76 per cent the market has booked for winter 2026/27: in a normal or mild winter, 76 to 77 per cent is enough. In an extremely cold winter like 2010, up to 9 TWh a month would be missing in February and March 2027 and more than a quarter of daily demand on some January days; INES managing director Sebastian Heinermann: in an exceptionally cold winter “the risks increase significantly” (Cleanthinking, as of 5 September 2026). At 61.4 per cent on 1 November, storage is just under 15 points short of the 76 per cent of the mild scenario (own calculation); that gap can only be covered by imports during the winter.
3. What is moving the gas price now
The TTF front month briefly reached €100 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday 28 October 2026 for the first time since late 2022; it is up about a third since the start of the month and has more than tripled since the start of the year (dpa-AFX via EnergyNewsMagazine, 30 October). On 2 October it had stood at €73.39 (Trading Economics), on 22 September at €70.66 (finanzen.at). dpa-AFX names as drivers the war between the United States and Iran, the ordered departure of diplomatic staff, Trump's hint that attacks could resume after the midterm elections on 3 November, and the refilling of German storage, for which Sefe is to procure additional gas.
On the LNG market Qatar has extended its cancellations: Pakistan, Bangladesh and an Indian buyer are affected through November, Edison until early December; LNG prices are at their highest since late 2022 (The National, 28 September 2026). The state purchase ordered from Sefe is covered in the section above. Our glossary explains the TTF gas price and the mechanics of EU gas storage.
4. What gas and oil heaters should do now
For gas customers the storage picture is no reason to panic but a reason for care: 76 per cent of booked capacity covers a normal winter, not a very cold one without imports and savings. If you hold a fixed-price contract running into spring 2027, keep it; with the TTF having briefly reached €100 on 28 October (dpa-AFX), a new fixed price is expensive, so anyone on a default tariff should compare contract length and notice period as closely as the price. Cutting consumption is the one lever that always works: one degree less room temperature saves roughly six per cent of heating energy by the German Environment Agency's rule of thumb, and our saving tips list the rest.
For oil heaters the situation is the reverse: heating oil does not depend on storage but has been expensive for weeks, €173.50 per 100 litres on the national average on 1 November 2026, 0.01 per cent below the previous day (HeizOel24). Our page Germany heating oil price forecast has the ordering rule and the winter scenarios.
See in a minute what a winter at €70 or €100 per MWh means for your heating bill.
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