1. Where storage stands today
German storage held 140.7 terawatt-hours of working gas on the morning of 22 September 2026, 56.8 per cent of a technical capacity of 247.5 TWh; the previous day saw 711 gigawatt-hours injected and just 5 withdrawn, lifting the fill level by 0.29 percentage points (GIE AGSI). The pace is fine, the level is not: Germany sits 13 points below the EU average of 69.9 per cent and behind almost every neighbour. Only the Netherlands, at 55.5 per cent, is similarly low; France is at 80.3, Italy at 85.8, Poland at 98.5 per cent.
| Country | Fill level | Working gas | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU total | 69.9 % | 791.5 TWh | 1,131.6 TWh |
| Germany | 56.8 % | 140.7 TWh | 247.5 TWh |
| Netherlands | 55.5 % | 80.0 TWh | 144.0 TWh |
| Belgium | 60.0 % | 4.6 TWh | 7.6 TWh |
| Austria | 67.8 % | 68.0 TWh | 100.3 TWh |
| Spain | 73.4 % | 26.3 TWh | 35.8 TWh |
| Czech Republic | 74.9 % | 34.0 TWh | 45.3 TWh |
| France | 80.3 % | 99.5 TWh | 123.9 TWh |
| Italy | 85.8 % | 174.5 TWh | 203.4 TWh |
| Poland | 98.5 % | 36.3 TWh | 36.8 TWh |
The gap was made in spring. The 2025/26 winter was harsh and storage came out of the heating season at around 30 per cent (Wikipedia, March 2026); then came the war. The closure of Hormuz from March 2026 removed Qatari LNG from the world market, and the strike on Ras Laffan on 18 March took out 17 per cent of Qatar's capacity for three to five years (Wikipedia). Injecting was expensive all summer, and operators booked cautiously.
2. How far injection can get by 1 November, and what winter needs
At the 22 September daily trend of +0.29 points, German storage would reach about 68 per cent by 1 November; the ordinance's 80 per cent would only arrive in early December if that pace held. That is a straight-line extrapolation, not a forecast; injection normally slows in October once the first heating days arrive. The 80 per cent applies per facility, six named sites such as Rehden need only 45 per cent, and 30 per cent is required on 1 February (Bundesnetzagentur). At EU level a flexible 83 per cent target applies between 1 October and 1 December with a ten-point tolerance below (Cleanthinking).
What matters is demand, not the target. The storage operators' association INES works with the 76 per cent the market has booked for winter 2026/27: in a normal or mild winter, 76 to 77 per cent is enough. In an extremely cold winter like 2010, up to 9 TWh a month would be missing in February and March 2027 and more than a quarter of daily demand on some January days; INES managing director Sebastian Heinermann: in an exceptionally cold winter "the risks increase significantly" (Cleanthinking, as of 5 September 2026). At 56.8 per cent today, even the mild scenario is not yet in the ground.
3. Why the gas price is falling regardless
The TTF front month traded at €70.66 per megawatt-hour on 22 September 2026, 3.5 per cent below the previous day with an intraday low of €68.65; a week earlier it had stood above €84, its highest since late 2022 (finanzen.at). The trigger is the same news that is pulling crude down: Iran has offered through mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States lifts its blockade of Iranian ports (Reuters via Israel Hayom, 22 September 2026). For Europe that is the Qatari LNG that has barely passed the strait since March.
A falling price does not fill a store; it only makes filling cheaper. Whether operators inject more in October depends on whether the reopening actually happens; the first agreement in June lasted until 8 July (Wikipedia, 2026 Strait of Hormuz campaign). Our glossary explains the TTF gas price and the mechanics of EU gas storage.
4. What gas and oil heaters should do now
For gas customers the storage picture is no reason to panic but a reason for care: 76 per cent of booked capacity covers a normal winter, not a very cold one without imports and savings. If you hold a fixed-price contract running into spring 2027, keep it; if you are on a default tariff, compare now while the TTF is below €75. Cutting consumption is the one lever that always works: one degree less room temperature saves roughly six per cent of heating energy by the German Environment Agency's rule of thumb, and our saving tips list the rest.
For oil heaters the situation is the reverse: heating oil does not depend on storage but has been expensive for weeks, €167.51 per 100 litres on 22 September 2026 (HeizOel24) after 178.8 cents a litre at 3,000 litres on 18 September (Tecson). Our page Germany heating oil price forecast has the ordering rule and the winter scenarios.
See in a minute what a winter at €70 or €100 per MWh means for your heating bill.
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