1. The short answer
The Strait of Hormuz has carried only a small fraction of its normal tanker traffic since the escalation of February and March 2026, and that shortfall, not any single headline, is why crude, diesel, heating oil and European gas are all up together. Roughly 20 million barrels a day used to pass through the strait; Kpler and Lloyd's List put transits in early September 2026 at about 12 to 13 tankers a day, down from around 100 before the crisis. Brent crude closed at $103.98 a barrel on 11 September 2026 (Trading Economics), after a week that took it above $107.
This page collects numbers already verified elsewhere on the site and points you to the pages that turn them into a decision. See the Strait of Hormuz glossary entry for how the chokepoint works.
2. Where the numbers stand
Every figure below carries its own date and source because the underlying markets moved on different days in the first two weeks of September 2026. Treat a number without a date, here or anywhere else, as unverified.
| Indicator | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $103.98/barrel | 11 September 2026 | Trading Economics |
| WTI crude | $103.80/barrel | 11 September 2026 | Trading Economics |
| NY Harbor heating oil futures | $5.10/gallon | 11 September 2026 | Trading Economics |
| US diesel, retail | $5.90/gallon to over $6.00/gallon (range, not a single figure) | 7 to 11 September 2026 | Al Jazeera (7 Sep.), CNN (11 Sep.) |
| European gas benchmark (TTF) | above €80/MWh | 9 September 2026 | Bloomberg (single source, not independently confirmed) |
| VLCC tanker rates, Middle East to China | around $800,000/day | 10 September 2026 | gCaptain, Bloomberg |
| Hormuz tanker transits | about 12 to 13/day, versus roughly 100/day before the crisis | early September 2026 | Kpler, Lloyd's List |
| EU gas storage | 57.1% full | 1 August 2026 | Euronews |
| EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Brent forecast | $91/barrel average 2026, $74/barrel average 2027 | outlook issued 9 September 2026 | EIA STEO |
| IEA Oil Market Report, demand revision | world oil demand down 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 | report issued 11 September 2026 | IEA OMR |
Two rows above rest on a single source: the TTF gas figure and the VLCC tanker rate, so treat them as approximate. A different tracker, IMF PortWatch, puts the average transit rate since March at about 7 a day, lower than the early-September figures above; both numbers are given rather than picking one.
3. How we got here: a timeline since February 2026
- February and March 2026. US-Iran escalation pushes Brent above $100 a barrel; the Strait of Hormuz becomes effectively unusable for normal traffic.
- 18 June 2026. A US-Iran memorandum brings partial cooling; Brent trades $74 to $84 in the following weeks.
- Mid July 2026. Tensions re-escalate and crude climbs again.
- 2 August 2026. Seven OPEC+ members agree to raise output by 188,000 barrels a day for September, per OPEC's statement.
- 7 September 2026. Aramco's Jizan refinery is hit for the second time in a month (Al Jazeera).
- 8 September 2026. Houthi forces strike Saudi oil facilities; a Saudi pipeline is reported shut after a strike on 11 September (CNN).
- 11 September 2026. Houthi forces take the Yemeni port of Mokha near Bab el-Mandeb, a route carrying roughly 12% of seaborne oil trade (Gulf News); Brent touches $107.60 before closing at $103.98.
- 12 September 2026. Saudi Arabia temporarily shuts the East-West pipeline (up to 7 million barrels a day) after a drone attack in the Riyadh and Medina regions; the Houthis complete their hold on the Yemeni Red Sea coast and the Bab el-Mandeb islands; November Brent briefly trades near $110 overnight into Friday (dpa 11 and 12 September).
Iran's parliament speaker states the country has "full control" of the strait and will not allow it to reopen; US claims of 30 to 40 ships a night moving through Hormuz are not confirmed by independent trackers. Neither claim is resolved here.
4. The second chokepoint: Bab el-Mandeb and the Saudi bypass
Since 11 September 2026 the Houthis hold the entire Yemeni Red Sea coast, the port of Mokha and the islands of Mayyun, Greater Hanish and Lesser Hanish. That puts both shores of Bab el-Mandeb, about 20 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, under one armed actor for the first time in the crisis (dpa, 11 September 2026; Times of Israel, 11 September 2026). The strait is not formally closed: a Houthi spokesman calls navigation "safe and orderly", and no maritime authority has declared a closure. What has changed is the risk to every ship that still uses it. Red Sea traffic was already roughly 60% below its pre-attack level of late 2023, and Saudi crude exports through the Red Sea had fallen from 3.8 to 2.2 million barrels a day before this week (Voice of Emirates citing Reuters and AP, 12 September 2026).
Why this matters more than a Red Sea story usually would: the Saudi East-West pipeline from the Gulf fields to Yanbu was the main bypass for crude that can no longer leave through Hormuz. It carries up to 7 million barrels a day and was temporarily shut on 12 September after a drone attack in the Riyadh and Medina regions; the pipeline had already been attacked in April 2026 (dpa, 12 September 2026). With Hormuz effectively closed and the bypass interrupted, the two exit routes for Gulf crude are constrained at the same time. November Brent traded near $110 overnight into Friday; analysts quoted by dpa see $120 if the escalation continues. That is a scenario, not a forecast, and it is not built into any price on this site.
A fuller status page for this second chokepoint, including the Cape of Good Hope detour and what it costs, is at Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb; the terms themselves are explained in Bab el-Mandeb Strait and East-West Pipeline. For households the mechanism is the same as in section 5: crude moves first, diesel and heating oil follow within days, and the effect is larger in Europe than in the United States because Europe depends more on seaborne middle distillates. Our country pages on Germany, the UK and the United States will carry the next dated price update; the diesel crack spread page explains why refined products react faster than crude.
5. What it means by fuel
Heating oil in the US Northeast. Heating oil and diesel are the same distillate product with different dye. NY Harbor futures at $5.10 a gallon (11 September) are the wholesale benchmark Northeast dealers price against; see the Northeast forecast and the winter 2026-27 state page.
Diesel. US retail diesel has been quoted from $5.90 a gallon (Al Jazeera, 7 September) to over $6.00 (CNN, 11 September), given here as a range rather than one figure. See the diesel crack spread entry and the refining margin entry.
Gas in Europe. TTF traded above €80 per MWh on 9 September (Bloomberg), against EU storage at 57.1% full on 1 August, the lowest for that date on record. See the German forecast and the Ofgem price cap forecast.
Jet fuel and airlines. Several Asian carriers, including Japan Airlines, announced a higher international fuel surcharge for tickets in the September to October 2026 window (JAL, August 2026); Manila Times and Taipei Times reported similar step increases in late August and early September 2026, airline by airline rather than as one global figure.
6. Two readings of the same numbers
On China's role, Western coverage such as CNBC describes China as a stabilising buyer using its own reserves. A South China Morning Post opinion piece takes a different line, stating China will not "waste" reserves propping up the global price. Both describe the same activity; they differ on why.
On the strait itself, Iran's official position is "full control" and no reopening. US statements describing a much higher volume of nightly transits are not corroborated by independent trackers (Kpler, Lloyd's List, IMF PortWatch), which put the real figure at a small fraction of pre-crisis flow. Both positions are stated side by side here rather than adjudicated.
7. Where to go next
This hub carries no calculator of its own; it dates the numbers and routes you to the page that goes deeper:
- Strait of Hormuz, for how the chokepoint works and what past closures looked like.
- Strategic petroleum reserve, for how governments can respond to a supply shock like this one.
- Refining margin, for why refiners, not just crude, are driving diesel and heating oil prices.
- Diesel crack spread, for the 3-2-1 formula and a worked 2026 example.
- US Northeast heating oil forecast, for the regional decision this data feeds into.
- New England heating oil, winter 2026-27, state by state.
- UK Ofgem price cap forecast, for how the gas side reaches a British bill.
- German heating oil price forecast, for the equivalent picture in the largest heating-oil market in the EU.