1. The short answer for New England households
Nobody can tell you the exact per-gallon price for January in Concord or Worcester, and anyone who does is guessing. What the data does say: the wholesale leg of your price is already about a fifth higher than a month ago, and the supply picture behind it is worse than it was in July. If your tank is below a third, order now. Between a third and two thirds, split the order between now and the first October readings. Above two thirds, wait, but with three written quotes in hand.
The reason to act on tank level rather than on a forecast is simple. Retail heating oil in New England is built from three layers: crude, the refinery and wholesale margin, and the dealer's delivery margin. Only the first two move with the headlines, and both have moved up since the last official retail reading. The third layer is local and stable. So the question is not whether this winter will be expensive, it will be, but whether you carry the risk of an empty tank into a market where deliveries can slip.
2. Where prices actually stand: the last official readings by state
Short answer: the last in-season EIA reading for New England was $5.578 a gallon, and the wholesale benchmark has risen sharply since. The EIA's weekly residential heating oil survey runs from October to March. Its final reading of the 2025-26 season, for the week ending 30 March 2026, was $5.535 for the US average and $5.578 for New England (PADD 1A). The next reading is scheduled for 7 October 2026. Until then, there is no official retail number for any state, only dealer quotes.
State by state, the last EIA readings of the season were: New York $5.874, Rhode Island $5.802, Massachusetts $5.742, Vermont $5.558, Connecticut $5.546, New Hampshire $5.407 and Maine $5.371 per gallon. The spread between the cheapest and most expensive state was about half a dollar, which is typical: it reflects delivery distance, dealer density and state taxes more than crude.
What has changed since March is the wholesale leg. NY Harbor heating oil futures, the benchmark every New England dealer prices against, traded at $5.10 a gallon on 11 September 2026, up 18.5 percent in a month and 122.8 percent in a year. Brent crude closed the week at $103.98 a barrel after touching $107.60, and traded above 100 dollars all week. A futures price of $5.10 before the dealer margin is added tells you the direction of the next retail print without needing a forecast.
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3. Why the supply side matters more than the seasonal pattern this year
Short answer: the usual autumn window, when demand is low and dealers compete for pre-buy volume, is competing with a distillate shortage. The EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook, published on 9 September, projects that US distillate inventories will drop below 100 million barrels in September and stay below the five-year low through much of 2027. Weekly data already show stocks 13 percent under the five-year average, with refineries running at 97.8 percent of capacity, leaving little room to produce more.
The International Energy Agency's report of 11 September widened the picture: it now expects world oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026, a decline it compares in scale to the four largest demand shocks of the past 60 years, and it points to record diesel prices. Heating oil and diesel are the same product with different dye, so a tight diesel market is a tight heating oil market.
The supply constraint is the Strait of Hormuz. Ship-tracking data cited by Al Jazeera on 3 September show around 12 to 13 tanker transits a day against roughly 100 before the crisis, and Iran says it will not allow the strait to reopen. On 11 September the Houthis took the Yemeni port of Mokha near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a route that carries about 12 percent of global oil supplies, after strikes on Saudi oil facilities earlier in the week. Two key sea routes for Gulf oil are impaired at the same time, which is why crude rose about 9 percent in one week.
See what $120, $150 or $180 crude would add to your household's winter bill.
Run the scenario4. State by state: what to watch in CT, MA, NH, ME, VT and NY
The numbers below are the last EIA retail readings (week ending 30 March 2026) and what makes each state's market different. No state has a verified September retail price yet; treat dealer quotes as the only current data until 7 October.
- Connecticut, $5.546. Close to the New England average. Quotes differ by dealer more than by town, so collect three written quotes; if a capped contract is offered, check whether the cap premium is built into the per-gallon rate or charged up front.
- Massachusetts, $5.742. Third-highest last reading in the region. If your income is near the assistance threshold, apply for fuel assistance before the first delivery rather than after; the programme draws on federal LIHEAP funds.
- New Hampshire, $5.407. Second-cheapest last reading. Pre-buy offers are common; ask whether the dealer's pre-buy money is bonded or escrowed before paying up front.
- Maine, $5.371. Cheapest last reading of the season. With a low starting price the risk is availability rather than the last few cents: fill early rather than cheaply.
- Vermont, $5.558. Slightly below the regional average. Fuel assistance is LIHEAP-funded, as in the other states, and applications typically open in autumn.
- New York, $5.874. Highest last reading of the seven states. New York belongs to the EIA's Central Atlantic district (PADD 1B), whose average was $5.612, so compare quotes locally rather than against the state figure.
- Rhode Island, $5.802. Second-highest last reading. Read pre-buy contracts closely for the minimum delivery quantity, which decides whether two quotes are comparable at all.
The assistance programmes named above all draw on federal LIHEAP money; eligibility and how to apply are covered on our LIHEAP page.
5. Lock in, pre-buy, cap or float: the rule for this winter
Short answer: with wholesale up a fifth in a month and inventories below the five-year band, the value of a known ceiling is higher than in a normal year. A pre-buy fixes the price for a set number of gallons paid up front; it removes price risk but adds dealer risk, so check that the money is escrowed or bonded. A cap sets a ceiling and lets you benefit if prices fall; you pay for that asymmetry in the per-gallon rate. A variable plan is cheapest if the strait reopens and most exposed if it does not.
Apply the tank rule from the top of this page, and add one timing rule: be done before the first hard freeze. Delivery windows stretch as soon as temperatures break, and in a season where the EIA expects distillate stocks below their five-year low, the cost of waiting is not only price but availability. Our buy-now-or-wait guide goes through the contract types in more detail.
Two events would change the rule. A verified reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would pull crude down fast; if your tank is above two thirds, that is worth waiting for. A further escalation around Bab el-Mandeb would push it the other way. Do not act on a single day's move: Brent fell 3.4 percent on 11 September and was still up about 9 percent for the week.
6. What the EIA and IEA outlooks imply for the winter
Short answer: the official base case is for crude to stay near its August level through the end of 2026, then ease in 2027. The EIA's September outlook puts Brent at an average of 91 dollars for 2026 and 74 dollars for 2027, and states that prices should stay close to the August monthly average in the coming months. That forecast assumes gradually increasing flows through the Strait of Hormuz plus alternative export routes, with Middle East production staying below pre-conflict levels until the second quarter of 2027.
Two caveats. First, spot Brent at 103.98 dollars is already well above the EIA's full-year average, and the Mokha seizure happened two days after the outlook was published. Second, the EIA does not publish a New England retail forecast; the winter heating cost figures it releases in October are national and regional averages, not state prices. We will update this page when the weekly survey resumes on 7 October and when the Winter Fuels Outlook appears.