1. The short answer for Mid-Atlantic households
Nobody can tell you the exact per-gallon price for a January delivery in Trenton or Baltimore. What the data does say: the wholesale benchmark behind your price is already about a fifth higher than a month ago, and the government's own supply outlook is worse than it was in midsummer. If your tank is below a third, order now. Between a third and two thirds, split the order between now and the first October readings. Above two thirds, wait, but get three written quotes so you can act within a day.
Retail heating oil in these five states is built from crude, a refinery and wholesale margin, and the dealer's local delivery margin. Only the first two move with the headlines, and both have risen since the last official state reading in March, while the dealer margin stays local and comparatively stable.
2. Where prices actually stand: the last EIA readings by state
Short answer: the last EIA reading for the Mid-Atlantic district was $5.612 a gallon, and New York, the region's highest state, was $5.874. The EIA's weekly residential heating oil survey runs October to March. Its final reading of the 2025-26 season, week ending 30 March 2026, covered the Central Atlantic district (PADD 1B: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware) at $5.612 a gallon. The next reading is 7 October 2026; until then there is no official state or district retail number, only dealer quotes.
| State | Last EIA retail price | Week ending |
|---|---|---|
| New York | $5.874/gal | 30 March 2026 |
| New Jersey | $5.838/gal | 30 March 2026 |
| Delaware | $5.913/gal | 30 March 2026 |
| Maryland | $5.276/gal | 30 March 2026 |
| Pennsylvania | $5.160/gal | 30 March 2026 |
| Central Atlantic district (PADD 1B) average | $5.612/gal | 30 March 2026 |
The spread across the five states, from $5.160 in Pennsylvania to $5.913 in Delaware, is wider than the roughly half-dollar band among New England states last season, reflecting delivery distance, dealer density and state taxes more than crude. What has changed since March is the wholesale leg: NY Harbor heating oil futures, the benchmark every Mid-Atlantic dealer prices against, traded at $5.10 a gallon on 11 September 2026, up 18.5 percent in a month, before dealer margin is added.
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3. Why the supply side matters more than the seasonal pattern this year
Short answer: the usual autumn window, when demand is low and dealers compete for pre-buy volume, is running into a distillate shortage the government itself flags. The EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook, published 9 September 2026, projects US distillate inventories falling below 100 million barrels in September and staying below the five-year low (2021-2025) well into 2027, with stocks already 13 percent under the five-year average and refineries running at 97.8 percent of capacity.
The International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report of 11 September 2026 expects world oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026, a decline it compares in scale to the four largest demand shocks of the past 60 years, and points to record diesel prices. Heating oil and diesel are the same distillate product, so a tight diesel market is a tight heating oil market for Mid-Atlantic households too.
The constraint behind both readings is the Strait of Hormuz. Ship-tracking estimates for early September 2026 range from about 7 tanker transits a day (IMF PortWatch) to 12 to 13 a day (Kpler and Lloyd's List, cited by Al Jazeera on 3 September 2026), against a pre-crisis level cited as roughly 100 to 130 a day, and Iran has said it will not allow the strait to reopen. On 11 September Brent crude closed near $103.98 (Trading Economics closing indication), up about 9 percent for the week after touching $107.60, a move attributed to the Houthi seizure of the Yemeni port of Mokha near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which carries roughly 12 percent of global oil supplies.
See what $120, $150 or $180 crude would add to your household's winter bill.
Run the scenario4. Last winter as context: what the EIA's outlook actually said
Short answer: the most recent official Winter Fuels Outlook, for 2025-26, expected US heating oil households to spend about 8 percent less than the winter before, near $1,390 for the season, and that forecast was later revised up for cold weather. The EIA published the Winter Fuels Outlook 2025-26 on 15 October 2025, projecting lower heating oil spending on the assumption of a milder season and lower crude at the time. A 15 December 2025 update flagged a colder-than-normal winter (about 8 percent more heating degree days than the ten-year December average) and revised its natural gas price assumption above $4.00 per MMBtu, both pushing costs above the October estimate.
Those figures describe 2025-26, not the winter ahead: this year's outlook starts from a higher crude price and a tighter distillate market.
5. Lock in, pre-buy, cap or float: the rule for this winter
Short answer: with wholesale heating oil up a fifth in a month and distillate inventories already below the five-year band, a known ceiling is worth more than in a typical year. A pre-buy fixes the price for gallons paid up front; it removes price risk but adds dealer risk, so confirm the money is escrowed or bonded. A cap sets a ceiling and still lets you benefit if prices fall, at a cost built into the per-gallon rate. A variable plan is cheapest if the strait reopens and most exposed if it does not.
Apply the tank rule from the top of this page, and add one timing rule: be done before the first hard freeze, since delivery windows stretch once temperatures break. Our buy-now-or-wait guide works through the contract types, and the New England winter page covers the neighboring states with the same EIA data.
Two events would change the rule: a verified reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would pull crude down quickly, worth waiting for if your tank is above two thirds; a further escalation around Bab el-Mandeb would push it the other way. Do not act on a single day's move: Brent fell 3.4 percent on 11 September and was still up about 9 percent for the week.
6. Help paying for it: LIHEAP in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware
All five states run a federally funded home energy assistance program through LIHEAP, which can cover part of a heating oil delivery for eligible households. Income limits and application windows are set by each state and change every season, so check eligibility before your first delivery. Our LIHEAP eligibility page explains how the federal program works. Because heating oil is delivered rather than metered, a benefit paid early can apply to a pre-buy or capped contract just as to a spot delivery.
7. What the EIA and IEA outlooks imply for the winter ahead
Short answer: the government's base case is for crude to stay near its August level through the end of 2026, then ease in 2027, but that base case is already under pressure. The EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook puts Brent at an average of $91 for 2026 and $74 for 2027, and states that prices should stay close to the August monthly average in the coming months. That forecast assumes gradually increasing flows through the Strait of Hormuz plus alternative export routes, with Middle East production staying below pre-conflict levels until the second quarter of 2027.
Two caveats: spot Brent at $103.98 is already above the EIA's full-year average, and the Mokha seizure happened two days after the outlook was published. The EIA does not publish a Mid-Atlantic retail forecast. We will update this page once the weekly survey resumes on 7 October 2026.