1. The latest reading, with a timestamp
HeizOel24's market quotes put Brent at $101.84 a barrel and WTI at $90.37 at 07:03 CEST on Monday 5 October (display −0.75 and −0.98 per cent). On Friday 2 October the December contract had settled at $102.25, 6 cents below Thursday; WTI settled at $91.11, down $1.76 or 1.9 per cent (Reuters via Business Recorder). Against Friday's settlement, Brent is about 0.4 per cent lower on Monday morning (our calculation); Trading Economics quoted $101.74 in the morning. Over the week of 28 September to 2 October Brent gained 0.11 per cent and WTI lost 1.6 per cent (Reuters via Business Recorder). Friday and the previous week follow below.
$100.03 a barrel of Brent at 13:14 CEST on Friday 2 October and $89.28 for WTI are HeizOel24.ch's market quotes. The day before, the December contract had settled at $102.31, up 4.37 per cent or $4.28 (Reuters via Dawn). The screen shows −3.08 per cent for Brent and −3.91 per cent for WTI against the provider's own reference; against the 1 October settlement, Brent is about −2.2 per cent (our calculation). The December contract has been the reference since 1 October; its gap to the expired November contract ($98.03 against $103.53 on 30 September) is backwardation, a sign of a tight market (Bloomberg via Rigzone).
| Date | Brent | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Oct 2026, 07:03 CEST | $101.84 (December) | HeizOel24 market quotes |
| 2 Oct 2026, settlement | $102.25 December (−$0.06, −0.06 %) | Reuters via Business Recorder |
| 2 Oct 2026, 13:14 CEST | $100.03 (December) | HeizOel24.ch market quotes |
| 1 Oct 2026, settlement | $102.31 December (+4.37 %, +$4.28) | Reuters via Dawn |
| 1 Oct 2026, 07:03 CEST | $96.93 (December) | HeizOel24 market quotes |
| 30 Sep 2026, settlement | $98.03 December (+1.9 %) · $103.53 November (+0.9 %) | Bloomberg via Rigzone |
| 29 Sep 2026, settlement | $102.59 (−$2.69, −2.6 %) | Reuters via The Nation, Bloomberg via Rigzone |
| 28 Sep 2026, settlement | $105.28 (+0.9 %) | back-calculated from Reuters' 29 Sep daily change; investingLive: about $105, up about 1 % |
| 25 Sep 2026, settlement | $104.32 (−2.14 %) | EnergyNow |
| 24 Sep 2026, settlement | $106.60 (+3.4 %) | Reuters via Investing.com |
| 22 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC | $99.97 | our API |
| a year earlier | $68.94 | Fortune (24 Sep) |
| 31 Mar 2026 (year high) | $118.35 | Wikipedia |
| 1 Jul 2026 (year low) | $71.57 | Wikipedia |
WTI settled at $92.60 on 28 September, $89.38 on the 29th (−3.5 per cent) and $90.42 on the 30th (+1.2 per cent), all November contract (Reuters via The Nation, Bloomberg via Rigzone); on 2 October it traded at $89.28 at 13:14 (HeizOel24.ch). The gap to Brent at that time was $10.75 (our calculation from the two quotes). What separates the two grades is explained in our glossary under Brent and WTI.
2. Why the oil price is swinging so hard
Two weekend decisions set the tone for the start of the week. On Sunday 4 October the seven core OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, left their November output targets unchanged in a short online meeting. In August they produced about 25 million barrels a day, roughly 5 million less than in February before the war began, because Gulf exports are running at only 60 to 80 per cent of normal; it is the war, not the quotas, that currently limits volumes (Reuters via EnergyNow, investingLive, 4 October). The capacity review on which the 2027 quotas are to be based was pushed from September to mid-November; the core countries meet again on 1 November, the full group at the end of November. The second decision is the release from reserves: the G7 are releasing 100 million barrels of crude and diesel through the IEA and reject export restrictions (Trading Economics, 5 October); according to Reuters, EU countries had earlier agreed on the French proposal of 50 million barrels of diesel plus 50 million barrels of crude from IEA members, and Trump wrote: “Europe has just agreed to release a massive amount of their heavily stocked Diesel Oil” (Reuters via Business Recorder, 3 October). Data also showed Gulf exports above pre-crisis levels on four of seven days in the last week of September (Trading Economics). On Monday morning Brent stood at $101.84, about 0.4 per cent below Friday's settlement (HeizOel24, 07:03 CEST; our calculation). Saxo analyst Ole Hansen now sees the strain in products rather than crude: “The main stress in the energy market is no longer crude availability … but rather refined product supply” (Reuters via Business Recorder). Thursday and Friday, the China report, the tanker hit and the G7 decision, follow below.
Two reports shaped the last two trading days. On Thursday 1 October the December contract rose 4.37 per cent to $102.31 after Reuters reported that Chinese refiners were suspending exports of refined products except to Hong Kong and Macau “until further notice”; the source is four people familiar with the matter, there is no official confirmation from China, and Reuters names the Wall Street Journal report of a third US carrier as a further driver (Reuters via Dawn). On Friday 2 October the price eased: Brent stood at $100.03 at 13:14 and briefly fell below $99 in the afternoon, after the G7 announcement that Trading Economics gives as the reason (HeizOel24.ch, Trading Economics). The G7 decided to release 100 million barrels through the IEA, starting immediately and spread over four months, with a “substantial” share of diesel in the first 20 days (The Irish Times, 16:25).
The strait also remains dangerous. On Thursday, according to Britain's UKMTO, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unidentified projectile; a fire broke out, the crew was unhurt and no one was named as responsible (Asharq Al-Awsat). On 29 September two ships had been hit (Gulf News). The same day Iran issued threats: chief negotiator and parliament speaker Ghalibaf said “In a region where we cannot sell oil, no one else will sell oil either; or if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will remain safe”, and IRGC spokesman Mohebbi said “Any vessel attempting to pass through sustains damage, either we strike it, or it hits a mine” (Times of Israel). In the US account the strait is under control; the IRGC, by contrast, called it closed and disputed that it is open; both accounts come from parties to the conflict.
Trump said on 1 October: “We have to make that decision: We blow them up or make a deal.” And: “It's gonna end very soon, one way or the other.” He left open whether to resume the bombing after the election on 3 November. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group left San Diego on 27 September; its arrival in the Arabian Sea, where the USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington already are, is expected between the end of October and the end of November; the report cites about 9,000 sailors and Marines (Gulf News, 2 October).
The week before, in brief: on Monday 28 September Brent rose about one per cent after Trump's no to Iran's seven-day plan; a premium of more than four dollars at times melted away when Qatar announced separate talks (investingLive, Reuters). On Tuesday the price fell 2.6 per cent to $102.59 as Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at Yanbu (Reuters via The Nation); on Wednesday, the November contract's last trading day, it rose 0.9 per cent to $103.53 (Bloomberg via Rigzone). The US reply to Iran's plan reached Tehran via Qatar on 30 September: the two sides largely agree on the steps but are divided over their sequencing (Gulf News). What the state of the talks means for prices, with scenarios, is on Hormuz plan rejected: what it means for fuel prices.
3. What holds the price back and what drives it
According to Kpler's data, crude is back while refined products remain far below that level. Some 13.5 million barrels a day of crude moved through Hormuz on 28 September, back at pre-war level, while refined products managed only 677,000 barrels a day on a seven-day average, against 3.6 million before the war (Kpler via IBTimes, 1 October). About 40 per cent of Gulf crude now leaves the region without using Hormuz, against 17 per cent before the war (Kpler via IBTimes). Gulf crude exports reached 16.33 million barrels a day in September, the highest since the war began in late February (February: 19.51 million); Saudi Arabia exported about 5.4 million after 2.45 million in August, Yanbu alone about 2.65 million (Kpler via Splash247, 30 September). The September average through Hormuz was about 9.72 million barrels a day, with a low of 2.2 million in July; the daily figure and the monthly average have different bases and cannot be set against each other.
Then there is the release from reserves, which Trading Economics names as the reason for Friday's fall. On 2 October the G7 decided to release 100 million barrels through the IEA, starting immediately and spread over four months, with a “substantial” share of diesel in the first 20 days (The Irish Times, updated 16:25; Macron named the four months, according to Trading Economics). The European diesel future then fell 8 per cent to $1,337.75 a tonne (The Irish Times, 16:25; a different source and time from the gasoil reading at 13:14 further down). Earlier the paper had reported an intermediate level of almost 6 per cent down at $1,364 a tonne and thought about eight cents a litre at the pump possible; that figure belongs to the earlier state. Background: the EU had been weighing a French proposal, 50 million barrels of diesel from European stocks plus 50 million barrels of crude from IEA members. Trump had demanded “at least 100 million barrels of diesel” from Europe and threatened a ban on US diesel exports; whether that threat still stands after the G7 decision is open. The European Commission had replied: “We fully reject a ban on diesel. A ban would not be beneficial to anyone. It would undermine our trust in the US as a reliable partner.” The seven core OPEC+ countries left their November output targets unchanged on Sunday 4 October; they produced about 25 million barrels a day in August, roughly 5 million below February, the capacity review for 2027 was pushed to mid-November, and the next meeting is on 1 November (Reuters via EnergyNow, investingLive, 4 October). The EIA's base case expects $90.66 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $73.74 on average in 2027 (STEO, 9 September). More on Oil price forecast 2027.
Driving prices up are mainly diesel and other products. Middle East refinery runs were about 7.3 million barrels a day in August against 9.9 million in February; the report sees a full return no earlier than the second quarter of 2027 (Kpler via IBTimes, 1 October). US distillate stocks fell by 2.25 million to 105.2 million barrels in the week to 25 September, 14 per cent below the five-year average (EIA, 30 September; OilPrice). According to the EU oil bulletin, diesel cost an EU average of €2.24 a litre on Monday 28 September, a record, with Germany at €2.44, Belgium €2.43, France €2.37 and Italy €2.35; in February the figure was €1.59 (Euronews, 1 October; these prices date from 28 September, before the fuel tax cut, and are not comparable with the 1 October readings further down). Russia has extended its diesel export ban for producers to 31 October and for non-producers to January; gasoline is banned completely until January and jet fuel until November, citing domestic supply during the harvest and shortages after Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries (The Moscow Times, 30 September). Add the China report and the tanker hit of 1 October, above. Why diesel rises faster than crude is explained on Diesel shortage winter 2026/27.
4. Dates until year-end that affect the oil price and fuel prices
These are the documented dates between now and year-end. What will be decided at them is not known, and we do not forecast how the oil price will react.
| Date | What | Source |
|---|---|---|
| from 2 Oct 2026 | G7 release of 100 million barrels through the IEA, spread over four months, with a substantial diesel share in the first 20 days | The Irish Times |
| 4 Oct 2026 (Sunday) | Done: the seven core OPEC+ countries left November targets unchanged; the capacity review for 2027 quotas was pushed to mid-November | Reuters via EnergyNow |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Next meeting of the seven core OPEC+ countries; full ministerial meeting at the end of November | investingLive |
| 6 Oct 2026, 11:00 Central Time | Bid deadline for an exchange of up to 40 million barrels from the US reserve, delivery in November and December; part of the 172 million barrels within the IEA release of 400 million barrels | US Department of Energy |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Russia's diesel export ban for producers runs to this date (extended on 30 September); for non-producers it runs to January | The Moscow Times |
| 1 Nov 2026 | German gas storage target: 80 % per facility | Bundesnetzagentur (storage ordinance) |
| 3 Nov 2026 | US congressional elections; Trump left open whether to resume the bombing afterwards; a third carrier is expected in the Arabian Sea between the end of October and the end of November | Gulf News |
| November to early December | Qatar's LNG force-majeure cancellations run: Pakistan and Bangladesh (and an Indian buyer) until November, Edison until early December | The National |
| 31 Dec 2026 | End of Germany's fuel tax cut | Bundesrat |
5. What the oil price means for heating oil, diesel and gasoline
Heating oil follows Brent with a lag of days, by way of the gasoil market. Gasoil traded at $1,385 a tonne at 13:14 CEST, 4.33 per cent down on the day (HeizOel24.ch). The EIA's weekly residential heating oil survey resumes on 7 October; until then the last US reference is diesel at a record $6.53 a gallon on 22 September (AAA). As a rule of thumb from our methodology, ten dollars a barrel is roughly 24 cents a gallon before taxes (42 gallons to the barrel). What that means for the winter is on Heating oil price predictions and, for the Northeast, on Northeast heating oil forecast.
In Europe, German heating oil cost €164.57 per 100 litres on 2 October at 12:24 (HeizOel24, −2.41 per cent on the day), Austrian €184.05 (HeizOel24.at, −0.01 per cent) and Swiss CHF 162.59 (HeizOel24.ch, −3.28 per cent); the French national average on 1 October was €1,849 per 1,000 litres of ordinaire and €1,868 of supérieur (prixfioul.fr, 17:39), and Spanish heating gasóleo C cost €1.722 a litre (MITECO Geoportal via calienteybarato.com). Since 1 October Germany's fuel tax cut has lowered the energy tax on petrol and diesel by 14.04 cents a litre, up to 16.7 cents with VAT, but not on heating oil. On the first day dpa reported averages of €2.052 for E10 and €2.197 for diesel up to 11:45, after daily averages of €2.242 and €2.390 on Wednesday; the ADAC saw 14 to 15 cents less than the day before at 12:15, depending on grade, and Federal Cartel Office head Mundt about 18 cents since midnight (dpa via finanzen.at, 1 October). An analysis by benzin.jetzt of 431 stations up to 11:00 found 12.7 cents for E10 and 13.3 cents for diesel, against 16.7 cents arithmetically possible (Kurier-Verlag citing dpa, 2 October). The measurements have different bases and are not averaged here. Spain has extended its 20-cent tax cut on both fuels for October (Royal Decree-Law 25/2026).
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