1. How much oil is owed back to the SPR, and when?
DOE expects about 200 million barrels to flow back into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve within a year of 11 March 2026, because the 2026 release was structured as exchanges: companies borrowed crude and must return it with premium barrels. According to Reuters (9 July), Energy Secretary Wright put the average at 1.28 barrels back for every barrel lent, and returns were expected to start later in 2026. DOE's own statements set out the terms step by step:
| Date (2026) | Step, per DOE | Volume | Return terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar | release announced | 172 million barrels as exchanges | about 200 million barrels back within the next year, “20% more barrels than will be drawn down”, “at no cost to the taxpayer” |
| 13 Mar | first request for proposals | 86 million barrels | premium barrels, on a schedule “designed to protect commercial markets” |
| 20 Mar | first awards | 45.2 million barrels out | 55 million barrels back, about 21.7% more (own calculation) |
| 9 Apr | new request (West Hackberry) | up to 30 million barrels | premium barrels back “by next year” |
| 10 Apr | award (Bryan Mound) | 8.5 million barrels | premium barrels back “by next year” |
| 30 Apr | new request | up to 92.5 million barrels; about 80 million awarded in three earlier requests | 24% premium cited |
| 11 May | awards | about 53.3 million barrels; about 35 million delivered to date | about 28% premium (15.1 million barrels) |
| 10 Jun | status and new request | more than 133 million awarded in four earlier requests; new request for up to 40 million | 26% premium cited; no award notice found |
What we could not find: a month-by-month return schedule, a final total of barrels lent, or a DOE award notice for the June request. The last delivered-to-date figure we found is about 35 million barrels, on 11 May. How the whole collective action of 426 million barrels was split among 30 countries is on IEA release 2026: who gave what.
2. How far is the SPR from where it was a year ago?
The SPR held 285.0 million barrels in the week to 11 September 2026, 120.7 million barrels below the 405.7 million of a year earlier (EIA; the difference is our own calculation). That gap is not the same as what is owed back: the returns are tied to the loans, not to last year's level, and we found no DOE figure for barrels delivered after 11 May.
| Date | SPR (million barrels) | Series |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 (month end) | 413.5 | EIA MCSSTUS1 |
| January 2026 (month end) | 415.2 | EIA MCSSTUS1 |
| February 2026 (month end) | 415.4 | EIA MCSSTUS1 |
| March 2026 (month end) | 414.8 | EIA MCSSTUS1 |
| April 2026 (month end) | 394.5 | EIA MCSSTUS1 |
| May 2026 (month end) | 355.4 | EIA MCSSTUS1 |
| June 2026 (month end) | 322.2 | EIA MCSSTUS1 |
| 7 Aug 2026 (week ending) | 298.7 | EIA WCSSTUS1 |
| 14 Aug 2026 (week ending) | 293.4 | EIA WCSSTUS1 |
| 21 Aug 2026 (week ending) | 289.7 | EIA WCSSTUS1 |
| 28 Aug 2026 (week ending) | 286.6 | EIA WCSSTUS1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 (week ending) | 285.4 | EIA WCSSTUS1 |
| 11 Sep 2026 (week ending) | 285.0 | EIA WCSSTUS1 |
Weekly figures come from the EIA report of 16 September, month-end figures from EIA series MCSSTUS1 (released 31 August). A rising level from late 2026 would mostly reflect repaid loans rather than new government purchases. The weekly number comes out on Wednesdays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern (14:30 UTC).
By August, refilling had not yet reversed the draw on OECD government stocks: they fell by another 19 million barrels that month, while commercial stocks rose (IEA, 11 September). For the full SPR history, the exchange details and a guide to the weekly data, see US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level.
3. Who else has to restock: Europe, the UK and Asia?
Across Europe, the UK and Asia, Switzerland is the only country where we found a published refill clock: in the EU, Directive 2009/119/EC leaves it to the European Commission to set a “reasonable time frame” after consulting the Coordination Group and the IEA (Art. 20(6)), and we found no such deadline for 2026. Meanwhile the directive itself is under review. S&P Global reported on 28 July that a Commission proposal was expected later this year and that, according to its sources, the 90-day target is unlikely to rise; the same report put European deliveries from emergency reserves at 63 million barrels by July.
The United Kingdom contributed 14.0 million barrels from obligated industry stocks, 4.3 crude and 9.7 products, according to the IEA table; the government's written statement of 12 March had named 13.5 million. Under the standard UK mechanism the Secretary of State lowers the stocking obligation on companies through legally binding directions, which frees surplus stocks for the market (IEA). Refilling therefore means raising the obligation again, but we found no published direction showing how far it was cut or when it returns to normal. Switzerland, which did not take part in the IEA action, set that clock for its own September release: companies must restock the petrol and diesel drawn in September within six months, so by about March 2027 (BWL; own calculation).
In Asia, Japan (79.8 million barrels) and South Korea (22.5 million) are expected to refill “more gradually,” depending on prices and budgets (Reuters, 9 July). We found no Japanese buyback plan, timetable or budget. According to Money Today, South Korea adopted a plan on 23 September to add 20 million barrels of storage capacity by 2030, which is new tank space, not a purchase schedule.
4. Will refilling push oil prices up in 2027?
Energy Aspects expects SPR restocking to lead to a “higher price floor in 2027”, but how far refills actually move prices is open; Kpler, for its part, put the extra crude demand from refilling strategic reserves at 506,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026, rising further next year (both via Reuters, 9 July).
Kpler described refilling by other IEA members as “more 2027-weighted and discretionary,” and DOE said on 13 March that return barrels would come back on a schedule “designed to protect commercial markets.” Prices also start from a volatile base: Dated Brent averaged $91.00 in August and reached $113.48 on 9 September (IEA, 11 September).
As a baseline, not our forecast: the EIA's September outlook has Brent at about $90 in the second half of 2026, $77 in the second quarter of 2027 and $67 in the second half of 2027, and it does not discuss SPR returns (STEO, 9 September). Whether releases and refills move prices much is disputed; the research is summed up on our page on whether releases lower prices, and earlier episodes are listed under every emergency release since 1991. How prices for later delivery compare with today's is explained in our glossary entry on contango and backwardation.
5. What does the refill mean for your heating oil and gas budget?
For a household, the useful part is the calendar, not a buy signal: oil companies, not the government, are repaying the biggest block, the SPR returns, in barrels, and Reuters headlined on 9 July that reserve buying will support crude demand through 2028. A few things are worth watching:
- Crude, not fuel. The SPR takes back crude oil only. Heating oil and diesel prices also depend on refineries and on the distillate market.
- The Wednesday number. The EIA publishes the SPR level every Wednesday. Weeks with a rising level will mostly reflect loans being repaid.
- The June request. If DOE publishes an award or a final total, the size of the 2027 returns becomes clearer.
- Who pays. DOE says the exchanges come at no cost to taxpayers; Who pays for the reserves? explains how other countries fund theirs.
For your own heating oil order, your tank level, usage and budget matter more than the refill calendar. Our decision guide Heating oil: buy now or wait? covers the US market.
How to cite: Global Oil Shock (Jörg Dässler), “Refilling Oil Reserves in 2027: Who Owes What”, as of 23 Sep 2026, https://globaloilshock.com/en/strategic-oil-reserves/refill-2027/