1. Do SPR releases lower gas prices?
Usually only a little, and not for long: the US Treasury estimated on 26 July 2022 that that year's releases cut gasoline prices by 17 to 42 cents a gallon, and against a supply loss as large as 2026's a release cannot hold prices down. The IEA does not treat releases as a price tool: emergency stocks are released “to mitigate the negative economic impacts of a supply shock, and not as a tool to manage prices” (IEA, 16 November 2022). How far a release moves prices depends on three things: its size relative to the barrels lost, whether the shortage is in crude or in refined products such as diesel, and whether the oil physically arrives or is only announced. Even the 2022 draws, about 370 million barrels over eight months, came to roughly 1.6 per cent of world production, according to the St. Louis Fed.
Official statements and research do not always agree. On 25 March 2026 IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said prices had come down by $18; S&P Global, which reported the remark, gives no starting point for that figure. Economists find smaller or more fragile effects, and one peer-reviewed study argues that the 2022 draws may even have fed panic. How the 2026 release was delivered is covered on IEA release 2026: who gave what.
2. What happened to oil prices after past releases?
After some releases prices fell at once, after others they rose: Brent dropped $9.18 on 17 January 1991 (our calculation), but traded above $100 on 1 March 2022 and on 12 March 2026 despite a release. Every time, other events blurred the effect. The table lists the documented price moves and what else was going on.
| Release | Price move | What else happened |
|---|---|---|
| Gulf War, 17 Jan 1991 | Brent spot $30.28 on 16 Jan → $21.10 on 17 Jan 1991 (−$9.18, our calculation) | Desert Storm air campaign began overnight; release effect cannot be separated |
| Libya, 2011 | $94.96 (22 Jun) → $90.70 (23 Jun) → $95.73 (30 Jun 2011); benchmark not named by CRS | initial response lasted about one week (CRS) |
| IEA action 1, 1 Mar 2022 | Brent above $100 for the first time since 2014 | war in Ukraine; prices rose despite the release |
| US programme, 31 Mar 2022 | Brent −4.9% to $107.91, WTI −7.0% to $100.28 | OPEC+ output decision the same day |
| IEA record action, 11 Mar 2026 | ICE Brent +3.6% to $90.95 (14:35 GMT); above $100 on 12 Mar; March average $103, near $128 on 2 Apr | Iranian strikes, including on Fujairah; Dated Brent down almost 15% on 10 Mar |
Prices in US dollars per barrel. Sources: EIA (Brent spot, series RBRTED), UPI (17 Jan 1991), CRS R42460, VOA (1 Mar 2022), S&P Global (31 Mar 2022 and 11 Mar 2026), Euronews (12 Mar 2026), EIA STEO April 2026.
None of these episodes is a clean experiment. The 1991 fall came as news of the overnight bombing raids arrived. The 2011 dip had faded within about a week. On 31 March 2022 the US announcement coincided with an OPEC+ output decision, so the two effects cannot be separated. And on 11 March 2026 Brent rose on the day of the decision, after Dated Brent had fallen almost 15 per cent the day before; in its report of 12 March the IEA itself called the release “a stop-gap measure”. The difference between futures and physical prices is explained in our glossary entry on spot vs futures.
3. What does the research say about SPR releases and prices?
Kilian and Zhou (2019) put past US releases at less than $2 to about $12 a barrel, the US Treasury put the 2022 releases at 17 to 42 cents a gallon; a 2023 study finds the reserve ineffective in very tight markets.
- US Treasury (26 July 2022): the 2022 releases “lowered the price of gasoline by 17 cents to 42 cents per gallon”; an alternative method gives 38 cents.
- Kilian and Zhou (Dallas Fed Working Paper 1916, December 2019): measured on the real oil price, US releases lowered prices by less than $2 a barrel in the 1990/91 Gulf War, by about $3 after Katrina at a price level of $58.67, and by about $12 in 2011 at $107.98. A one-standard-deviation release (1.8 million barrels) lowers the oil price by 0 to 3 per cent within a quarter. Where announcements come before the physical release, their method may understate the effect.
- Razek, Galvani, Rajan and McQuinn (Resources Policy, 2023): the 2022 drawdowns “are likely to have caused the market to panic and contributed to gasoline price increases”; announcement effects are “short-lived (if at all)”. In very tight markets the SPR is “an ineffective price control mechanism during crises”.
- St. Louis Fed (March 2024): “Calculating the effect… is a bit complex”; the analysis gives no dollar figure and describes the effects as mostly redistributive.
- IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol (25 March 2026, via S&P Global): “The prices went down by $18, but the situation is still fluid.” The report does not say which peak or date the $18 is measured from.
4. Why did oil prices stay high despite the 2026 release?
Because the reserves flowed far more slowly than Gulf oil was lost: ING calculated on 12 March 2026 that all IEA countries together would supply about 3.3 million barrels a day, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell to less than a tenth of their pre-crisis level. ING started from the US plan to deliver 172 million barrels over about 120 days, roughly 1.4 million barrels a day. Hormuz carried about 20 million barrels a day in 2025 and less than 10 per cent of that by the IEA's report of 12 March. In September more than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output are still shut in, and effective spare capacity is 0.22 million barrels a day (IEA).
Two other limits matter for what you pay. First, the shortage is sharpest in refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, yet 301 of the 426 million barrels pledged were crude, about 71 per cent by our calculation, which refineries must process first; the northwest European diesel margin hit a record $98 a barrel on 1 September (S&P Global). Second, futures and physical markets split: according to the IEA's report of 14 April, Dated Brent was about $130 and physical crude near $150, “far above the prices in futures markets”. A dip on the futures screen need not reach refiners or pumps. Stock levels for refined products are on Diesel, heating oil, jet fuel: product stocks.
5. What does it mean for your gas and heating oil bill?
A reserve release is not a reliable signal that pump prices will fall: in March 2026, the month of the record release, Brent averaged $103, $32 more than in February (EIA). What you pay at the pump or for a heating oil delivery depends on the price of the refined product, taxes, freight and retail margins; crude is only one part, and heating oil is a gasoil, like diesel, so it trades in the same tight product market. On 22 September 2026 US gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon against $3.18 a year earlier, and diesel $6.53 (AAA). That $1.30 rise is about three times the Treasury's upper estimate for the whole 2022 release (our calculation). How oil prices feed through to what you pay is set out in our pass-through methodology; Brent stood at $98.60 on 23 September (oil price today).
In the UK the 2026 contribution came entirely from company stocks: the country has no government-owned oil stocks at all (IEA). If you heat with oil, on either side of the Atlantic, what counts for you is how long your own tank lasts; our heating oil tank calculator works it out. We do not publish price forecasts on this page.
How to cite: Global Oil Shock (Jörg Dässler), “Do SPR Releases Lower Gas Prices? The Evidence”, as of 23 Sep 2026, https://globaloilshock.com/en/strategic-oil-reserves/do-releases-lower-prices/