1. The latest reading, with a timestamp
$96.93 a barrel of Brent at 07:03 CEST on Thursday 1 October is HeizOel24's market quote, with WTI at $89.15. Anyone comparing that with yesterday needs to know about the contract roll: 30 September was the last trading day of the November contract, which settled at $103.53; the December contract, the reference from today, settled the same evening at $98.03 (Bloomberg via Rigzone). The $5.50 gap is backwardation: oil for prompt delivery costs more than oil two months out because the market is tight. This morning's quote is about 1.1 per cent below the December settlement, not 6.35 per cent below yesterday.
| Date | Brent | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026, 07:03 CEST | $96.93 (December) | HeizOel24 market quotes |
| 30 Sep 2026, settlement | $98.03 December (+1.9 %) · $103.53 November (+0.9 %) | Bloomberg via Rigzone |
| 29 Sep 2026, settlement | $102.59 (−$2.69, −2.6 %) | Reuters via The Nation, Bloomberg via Rigzone |
| 28 Sep 2026, settlement | $105.28 (+0.9 %) | back-calculated from Reuters' 29 Sep daily change; investingLive: about $105, up about 1 % |
| 25 Sep 2026, settlement | $104.32 (−2.14 %) | EnergyNow |
| 24 Sep 2026, settlement | $106.60 (+3.4 %) | Reuters via Investing.com |
| 22 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC | $99.97 | our API |
| a year earlier | $68.94 | Fortune (24 Sep) |
| 31 Mar 2026 (year high) | $118.35 | Wikipedia |
| 1 Jul 2026 (year low) | $71.57 | Wikipedia |
WTI settled at $92.60 on 28 September, $89.38 on the 29th (−3.5 per cent) and $90.42 on the 30th (+1.2 per cent), all November contract (Reuters via The Nation, Bloomberg via Rigzone). With the Brent roll the spread between the two has narrowed to about eight dollars. What separates the two grades is explained in our glossary under Brent and WTI.
2. Why the oil price is swinging so hard
The week had two forces pulling against each other. On Monday 28 September Brent jumped more than four dollars in early trade after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen Hormuz; the premium melted during the day on expectations that Qatar would hold separate talks with both sides, and the settlement was only about one per cent higher at $105.28 (investingLive, Reuters). On Tuesday the price fell 2.6 per cent to $102.59 as Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at Yanbu after restarting the East-West pipeline and Middle East seaborne exports rose to 16.33 million barrels a day in September, the highest since the war began in late February (Reuters via The Nation). On Wednesday, the November contract's last trading day, it rose 0.9 per cent to $103.53 (Bloomberg via Rigzone).
Trump told Axios on 28 September: "They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make", and denied offering concessions: "I offered them NOTHING!" A US official called the indirect talks "positive and constructive" but said there would be no deal unless the nuclear issues were addressed (CBS News). Foreign Minister Araghchi met the Qatari mediators in New York on 28 September and expected the formal US reply by Tuesday (Al Jazeera). It arrived on 30 September via Qatar: the two sides largely agree on the required steps but remain divided over their sequencing, essentially over who moves first (Gulf News). Iran's plan: reopen the strait within seven days in return for an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions waivers, the release of about $12 billion in frozen assets and a regional ceasefire including Lebanon (Al Jazeera).
The strait also remains dangerous: on 29 September Britain's UKMTO said projectiles hit two ships (Gulf News); CBS News reported one vessel struck with a fire that was put out. Transits have increased in recent weeks, but operators charge high premiums for the risk, and flows of crude, products and gas remain well below normal (Gulf News). What the state of the talks means for prices, with scenarios, is on Hormuz plan rejected: what it means for fuel prices.
3. What holds the price back and what drives it
There are forces in both directions, and both are documented. Holding prices back: Saudi Arabia is running the East-West pipeline at half capacity again and loading at Yanbu (Reuters via The Nation, 29 September); Goldman Sachs estimates about 23 million barrels a day leaving the Middle East through Hormuz and alternative routes, close to pre-war levels (Bloomberg via Rigzone, 30 September); Trading Economics puts flows through Hormuz alone at 13.2 million barrels a day (1 October); the talks channel through Qatar is open (Gulf News); OPEC+ is expected to leave November quotas unchanged (Trading Economics); and the EIA's base case expects $90.66 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $73.74 on average in 2027 (STEO, 9 September). More on Oil price forecast 2027.
Driving them is mainly diesel. US distillate stocks are at their lowest September level since 1982 (EnergyNow, 22 September), Russia bans diesel exports until the end of October, and the Ilsky refinery has been offline since 26 September (Kyiv Independent). Freight now makes up at least a quarter of the crude price to Asia, against five to six per cent in 2025 (OilPrice.com, 22 September). And there is the summer precedent: after the ceasefire broke on 8 July, Brent went from $71.57 on 1 July to $96.78 on 24 July (Wikipedia). Why diesel rises faster than crude is explained on Diesel shortage winter 2026/27.
4. What the oil price means for heating oil, diesel and gasoline
Heating oil follows Brent with a lag of days, by way of the gasoil market. Gasoil traded at $1,434 a tonne this morning, 2.17 per cent down on the day (HeizOel24, 07:03 CEST). The EIA's weekly residential heating oil survey resumes on 7 October; until then the last US reference is diesel at a record $6.53 a gallon on 22 September (AAA). As a rule of thumb from our methodology, ten dollars a barrel is roughly 24 cents a gallon before taxes (42 gallons to the barrel). What that means for the winter is on Heating oil price predictions and, for the Northeast, on Northeast heating oil forecast.
In Europe, German heating oil cost €167.85 per 100 litres on 1 October (HeizOel24, −0.01 per cent on the day), Austrian €184.45 (HeizOel24.at) and French heating oil €1,847 per 1,000 litres on 30 September (prixfioul.fr). From today, 1 October, Germany cuts the energy tax on petrol and diesel by 14.04 cents a litre, up to 16.7 cents with VAT, but not on heating oil; details on Germany's fuel tax cut. Spain has extended its 20-cent tax cut on both fuels for October (Royal Decree-Law 25/2026).
See in a minute what Brent at 90, 100 or 110 dollars means for your household.
Calculate my numbers