1. CH price structure (Brent plus taxes plus CO2)
Anyone wanting to understand the Swiss heating-oil price needs to know its components. Unlike in many other countries, Swiss pricing is relatively transparently decomposable because the federal government, the Swiss Federal Customs Administration and industry associations regularly publish the components. At the spring heating-oil price of CHF 1.12 per litre observed in May 2026, the components broke down as follows (kept here as a historical reference point; the box below the table shows the considerably higher price observed by September 2026).
| Component | Share CHF/L | Share % |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude share | ~0.58 | ~52 % |
| Refining and logistics | ~0.17 | ~15 % |
| Federal mineral-oil tax (76.82 CHF/1,000L) | ~0.077 | ~7 % |
| CO2 levy BAFU | ~0.32 | ~29 % |
| VAT 8.1 % | ~0.084 | ~7.5 % |
| End consumer price | ~1.12 | 100 % |
Values rounded, spring price level observed in May 2026 (historical reference). Actual shares vary with Brent level, USD-CHF rate and regional delivery costs. The CO2 levy share is relatively high because of the absolute value of CHF 120 per tonne. Source: Avenergy Suisse, Swiss Federal Customs Administration, BAFU.
What is special about the Swiss price structure?
Three peculiarities set the Swiss price structure apart from the German or Austrian one. First: the CO2 levy, around 29 percent of the gross price at the May 2026 level (a smaller share now that the price has risen), is still a larger share than in DE (around 15 percent) or AT (around 12 percent). That makes the Swiss heating-oil price politically more strongly steering. Second: the mineral-oil tax at 7.68 centimes per litre is relatively low; in DE and AT the mineral-oil tax component is higher. Third: the CHF-USD exchange rate acts as an additional volatility factor (see next section).
Where do I get current prices?
The most important points of reference for current Swiss heating-oil prices are Avenergy Suisse (the industry association), the individual suppliers (Coop Brennstoffe, Migrol, Tamoil, oekobau, regional providers) and comparison portals such as heizoel-preis.ch or comparis.ch. When ordering, it pays to obtain at least three quotes, because the price differences between providers can amount to 5 to 15 percent in peak times. More on the conceptual background can be found in the glossary entry on the heating-oil price.
Persona: the Schneider family (Aargau)
The Schneider family ordered a 2,500-litre tank fill in September 2026, at the elevated price the Hormuz crisis has driven. At a gross price of CHF 1.6085 per litre that means around CHF 4,021 of order value (2,500 x 1.6085). Of that, around CHF 800 goes on the CO2 levy, CHF 192 on the mineral-oil tax, around CHF 326 on VAT, the remainder on crude, margin and logistics. Through the annual health-insurer refund of around CHF 350 for a four-person family, the net CO2 burden reduces to around CHF 450.
2. CHF-USD factor as a volatility driver
Brent is quoted globally in US dollars per barrel. The Swiss importer buys heating oil at the Brent price in USD, converts this into CHF, adds refining and logistics costs plus taxes and passes that on to the end customer. This USD-CHF translation is an additional volatility factor that decouples the Swiss heating-oil price from the German or Austrian price structure.
Mechanism
When the CHF appreciates against the USD (CHF becomes more expensive), the CHF price per Brent barrel falls and so does the heating-oil price in CHF, even if the Brent price in USD stays constant. Example: Brent at 65 USD per barrel, USD-CHF rate at 0.90 = 58.5 CHF per barrel. If the USD-CHF rate falls to 0.85 (CHF appreciated), the same Brent price becomes only 55.25 CHF per barrel, a reduction of around 6 percent without the Brent price itself having changed. Conversely: USD-CHF strengthening to 0.95 lifts the CHF price to 61.75 CHF per barrel, an increase of around 5.5 percent.
Historical ranges
Over the past five years, the USD-CHF rate has moved between 0.82 (CHF especially strong, spring 2024) and 0.98 (CHF weak, early 2023). This 20 percent range means: even with a stable Brent price in USD, the CHF heating-oil price can fluctuate by 15 to 20 percent, simply through exchange-rate shifts. Anyone who understands the Swiss heating-oil market therefore watches not only Brent in USD but also the USD-CHF rate.
Anti-fantasy: exchange-rate forecast
Practical consequence
For ordering strategy, this means: with a strongly appreciated CHF (USD-CHF below 0.85), heating oil tends to be cheaper, which is a good ordering time. With a weak CHF (USD-CHF above 0.93), heating oil tends to be more expensive. However, the exchange rate is not the only driver; the Brent price itself often has greater influence. In a geopolitical crisis (e.g. Hormuz escalation), typically both the Brent price and the USD rise (as a safe haven), which partially offset each other. From the mechanism understanding it follows: CH heating-oil prices are overall somewhat less volatile than the pure Brent fluctuations in USD would suggest, because USD and Brent often correlate. More on the conceptual background in the glossary entry pass-through effect.
What does your heating-oil order cost you in a crisis scenario?
The energy-cost calculator simulates different Brent scenarios and shows you how CHF heating-oil price fluctuations affect your tank fill. In 60 seconds with your own consumption values.
Calculate in 60 seconds3. Seasonality (May to July typically low)
The seasonal logic of Swiss heating-oil prices follows the same pattern as in Germany and Austria. The heating season begins in late autumn, reaches its consumption peak from November to February and ends in April. Demand for heating oil is therefore clearly cyclical: high in autumn and winter, low in summer.
Typical price patterns over the year
From the past five years, the following typical patterns can be derived for CH heating-oil prices. May to July: tendentially the cheapest months. The spot-price lows are mostly in this period, because stocks are full after the winter season and demand collapses. Swiss wholesalers partly reduce margins to clear stock. August to September: first signs of price rises, because the pre-order wave for the coming heating season begins. October to December: typically the price-peak plateau, because many households want to have their tank filled for the season. January to February: peak, when cold weather generates additional demand and emergency orders accumulate. March to April: moderate decline towards the summer low.
How big is the seasonal swing?
In normal market years, the spread between May low and January high was between 5 and 15 percent of the gross price. At a spring price of CHF 1.12 per litre that is CHF 0.06 to CHF 0.17 per litre of difference, or on a typical 2,500-litre tank fill CHF 150 to CHF 425. In crisis years (e.g. 2022 with the Ukraine shock), the spread can be considerably higher, up to 30 percent or more. In quiet market phases, on the other hand, it can fall below 5 percent.
Why doesn't this always hold?
The seasonal logic is a heuristic, not a law of nature. There are years in which it doesn't work. Examples: with a Brent shock in the summer (e.g. through a geopolitical crisis), the July price can be HIGHER than the previous November. With a Brent crash in autumn (e.g. through an unexpected OPEC quota increase), January can be cheaper than the summer. In around 4 out of 5 years the seasonal heuristic holds, in 1 out of 5 it doesn't. 2026 is exactly such a year: the Strait of Hormuz crisis that re-escalated in mid-July has continued into September, pushing the heating-oil price to around CHF 1.61 per litre by 11 September 2026, well above the typical May-to-July low and above the typical winter range. Anyone applying the seasonal heuristic blindly can buy in considerably more expensive in a crisis year.
Practical recommendation
Swiss households with smaller tanks (2,000 to 2,500 litres, typical in CH) can benefit well from seasonality by ordering a full tank in May to June that lasts the whole season. Households with larger tanks (3,500 litres upwards, rather rare in CH) should consider whether they want to spread the ordering risk over splitting: 60 percent tank volume in May/June, 40 percent in late autumn if prices stay favourable. That way they use seasonality but retain flexibility for unexpected market developments.
4. Forecast scenarios 2026
A reliable point forecast is not possible, that is the Pratfall upfront. We can only give probability corridors, based on current data and transparent assumptions. Four scenarios were conceivable for 2026 when this page was first published, with different probabilities; one of them, the shock scenario, has since fully materialised.
| Scenario | Brent USD/barrel | USD-CHF | Heating oil CHF/L | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: Bear (oversupply) | 50-55 | 0.85-0.88 | 0.95-1.02 | 20 % |
| B: Base (EIA forecast) | 58-65 | 0.88-0.92 | 1.05-1.18 | 50 % |
| C: Bull (OPEC cut) | 70-80 | 0.90-0.95 | 1.20-1.35 | 20 % |
| D: Shock (Hormuz) | 85-110+ | 0.92-1.00+ | 1.40-1.75+ | Fully in range (Sep 2026) |
* Scenarios are not a forecast. Probabilities are rough estimates based on EIA forecasts, IEA market analyses and independent risk assessment made when this page was first published. Geopolitical shock scenarios can break through the upper range at any time, as Scenario D has now done. Original bands published May 2026, retained here for comparison. Data: 11 September 2026.
Scenario A: Bear (around 20 % probability)
Brent falls below 55 USD per barrel in 2026, driven by global oversupply (OPEC+ raises quotas, US shale production ramps up, China demand weaker than expected). With simultaneously strong CHF (USD-CHF at 0.85-0.88), the heating-oil price falls to around CHF 1.00 per litre. That would be around 38 percent below the current (11 September 2026) level of about CHF 1.61 per litre and very cheap for CH households with oil heating. This scenario has not materialised.
Scenario B: Base (around 50 % probability, EIA forecast)
Brent stays in the annual average between 58 and 65 USD per barrel, similar to the EIA forecast available when this page was first published. USD-CHF fluctuates typically around 0.90. The heating-oil price stays in the range of CHF 1.05 to CHF 1.18 per litre. This was the most likely scenario for a normal market year, but the EIA's own forecast has since moved up substantially: its July Short-Term Energy Outlook (8 July 2026, published just before the mid-July re-escalation) had put the 2026 average at 81.91 USD per barrel and the 2027 average at 64.76 USD; the EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook (published 9 September) has since raised that further, to a 2026 average of 91 USD per barrel and 74 USD for 2027, both well above this original band. The actual price path has run above even that revised outlook.
Scenario C: Bull (around 20 % probability, OPEC steering)
OPEC+ cuts production quotas to support the price, possibly in response to US shale-oil growth. Brent rises to 70 to 80 USD per barrel, USD-CHF to 0.92. The heating-oil price reaches CHF 1.20 to CHF 1.35 per litre. In reality, OPEC+ has moved the other way: on 5-6 July it agreed to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day for August. This deliberate-cut version of the bull case therefore looks unlikely for now, though a policy reversal remains possible.
Scenario D: Shock (Hormuz) - fully in range by September 2026
This was the crisis scenario in the original May 2026 corridor, and it is the one that has now fully played out. A Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed Brent above 100 USD per barrel in February/March 2026; the 18 June US-Iran memorandum then cooled the market back to around 74-84 USD; a fresh escalation from mid-July has continued into September, with Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities, the Houthi capture of the Yemeni Red Sea port of Mokha near the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed at around 12 to 13 transits a day instead of the roughly 100 seen before the crisis. Brent closed at 103.98 USD per barrel on 11 September 2026 (weekly high 107.6 USD), squarely inside this band. USD has firmed as a safe haven alongside it. The Swiss heating-oil price has followed, reaching around CHF 1.6085 per litre (CHF 1.61 rounded) on 11 September 2026, well inside this band and well above the CHF 1.30 upper bound of the original 2026 corridor. More on the conceptual classification of Brent shocks can be found in the glossary entry on Brent.
What to do with these scenarios?
The most important take-home message: don't plan for one scenario, plan for a range. Anyone who filled their tank in May 2026 at around CHF 1.12 has already seen the price climb to around CHF 1.61 by September, exactly the kind of move Scenario D described. The most likely situation no longer sits neatly in the Base scenario; the Shock scenario is the one currently playing out, and it could still move higher or ease again. Your strategy should therefore have robustness across all four paths, not optimisation for one.
5. Ordering strategy for CH households
From the previous sections, five practical recommendations for heating-oil ordering strategy emerge. These are not an investment strategy, but a pragmatic guide for CH households with oil heating.
- Order full tank in May or June That is the standard recommendation. Seasonality argues in 4 out of 5 years for ordering in this phase. If your tank is small enough to get through the whole heating season with a single fill (CH-typical 2,000 to 2,500 litres), this is the simplest strategy. Plus: you complete the order in a relaxed market situation, without crisis pressure.
- For larger tanks: splitting into two tranches If your tank holds 3,500 litres or more, splitting can be sensible. Order 1 in May to June for around 60 percent tank volume, order 2 in late summer/early autumn for the remaining 40 percent. Advantage: you use seasonality for the first tranche and retain flexibility if the price is especially favourable or especially unfavourable for the second. Disadvantage: two orders = two delivery flat fees.
- Get three quotes before each order In Switzerland, heating-oil suppliers differ noticeably in price and service. Coop Brennstoffe, Migrol, Tamoil, regional providers and energy cooperatives have different prices. In peak times (October to February), the differences can amount to 10 to 15 percent. Comparison portals such as heizoel-preis.ch or comparis.ch help to see the market situation quickly. Plus: with small order quantities (under 1,500 litres), joint ordering with neighbours is worthwhile to save delivery flat fees.
- Now that a geopolitical crisis is here: manage the risk, don't chase the peak The Strait of Hormuz crisis is a live example of what this section used to warn about only hypothetically: it escalated sharply in February/March 2026, cooled after the 18 June US-Iran memorandum, reignited in mid-July, and has continued through September, pushing the Swiss heating-oil price to around CHF 1.61 per litre by 11 September 2026. Don't assume this level is a ceiling, prices could ease again if the crisis cools as it briefly did in June, or climb further if the Strait of Hormuz stays this restricted or tightens further. Don't take every crisis headline as an order trigger, but clear escalation patterns matter. If unsure: better fill 60 percent of the tank rather than 100 percent, that spreads the risk.
- Long-term: heating system switch as the most robust answer The fundamental answer to heating-oil price volatility is not ordering strategy but heating-system switch. With a heat pump, heating costs are not zero, but considerably less volatile and without CO2-levy burden. The Swiss subsidy landscape (see our Building Programme subsidy sub-page) makes the switch economically attractive. Anyone planning long-term should seriously examine the heating-system switch as an option for the next 5 to 10 years.
Compare heating-oil burden vs. heat-pump switch
The energy-cost calculator shows you how heating-oil ordering over the years compares with switching to a heat pump, with your own numbers and crisis scenarios.
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