Oil price, week 45: Brent falls by around 8 percent on hopes of an end to the war, while German gas storage clearly misses the target

1. What happened this week

On 30 October an LNG shipment was hit. According to UKMTO advisory 188, a merchant vessel was struck on its port side by an unidentified projectile at 19:01 UTC around 40 nautical miles south of the Iranian island of Lavan, with a fire on board and the crew safe. The shipping company Nakilat and the JMIC monitoring centre name the Qatari LNG tanker Al Mayeda for this, which according to the operator remained safe and operational; according to gCaptain the cargo, destined for Pakistan, held Iranian clearance, which puts the value of such clearances in question. Qatar spoke of a serious threat to energy security. The same day the Brent December contract expired at 117.64 dollars, and October closed up 13.6 percent. In Libya an armed group shut the valve of the crude pipeline from the Hamada field to the Zawiya refinery, the second intervention on the same supply line within a month.

On 31 October an Iranian proposal became known to reopen the strait within two days if Washington meets Iranian demands. It is a proposal, not an agreed framework. Russian deputy prime minister Novak reported new Ukrainian hits on three refineries and one gas chemical complex; all Russian statements come from a party to the conflict.

On 1 November OPEC plus left December output unchanged for the third time in a row. In the Strait of Hormuz, according to UKMTO advisory 191, an offshore tug was struck by a projectile north-west of the Musandam peninsula, with a mayday on channel 16. And in Germany the filling target for gas storage took effect, and it was clearly missed.

On 2 November Brent slumped by 7.63 percent to 104.77 dollars. Traders point to reports of a circulating draft for an end to the war as the trigger, which Reuters describes according to an official who is not named; it is not confirmed. The same day, according to UKMTO advisory 192, a tanker was struck by two projectiles at 01:36 UTC around 72 nautical miles east of Ras al Khafji in the northern Persian Gulf, the furthest north of the hits reported this week. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced that the ME1 service between India and Europe would in future run through the Suez Canal. At the Bab al-Mandab, Yemeni government forces began an advance against Houthi positions overlooking the shipping route. And CNN took stock of the Black Sea: at least a dozen merchant ships hit in the preceding weeks and at least 30 seafarers killed or missing.

In the night to 3 November US forces struck targets on the Iranian island of Qeshm according to AP and CBS, and Iranian state media reported five explosions. According to the account of a US official these were limited strikes in response to fire against a US aircraft and not the start of wider military action; no independent damage assessment is available. Brent fell further to 103.60 dollars. Qatari negotiators had returned from Tehran on 2 November, and Reuters reported a Qatari paper with a 36 hour deadline for a response. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that both sides remained far from an end to the war. Aramco reported a third quarter net profit of 36.25 billion US dollars, up 34 percent, and the IEA warned of the lowest European gas reserves since 2013.

On 4 November the result of the US midterm elections was settled: according to Reuters the Democrats won both chambers of Congress. President Trump told Fox News that part of it had been Iran, and according to a report by the Financial Times said the United States was locked and loaded, though there might also turn out to be no reason for a strike. For the situation on the water that changes nothing for now.

3. Germany misses the storage target, and the IEA warns about winter

On 1 November the filling target for gas storage took effect in Germany, and it was clearly missed. Required are 80 percent for most facilities and 45 percent for six designated pore storage sites, around 70 percent across the country taken together; the target applies per facility and not as an average. Readings of the same AGSI+ data give 61.02 to 61.5 percent for 1 November, depending on the time of retrieval and revision, and around 60.8 percent for 2 November, which means injection has tipped over into withdrawal. A year earlier storage stood at around 75 percent. According to a Reuters analysis of the AGSI+ series, which goes back to 2011, it is the lowest level for this time of year.

The assessments differ. The president of the Federal Network Agency, Klaus Müller, calls supply secure even without the targets being met and says reaching the storage targets is no longer essential; the authority currently rates the risk of a tight supply situation as low, and Müller points to the liquefied gas terminals. In the same context he notes that gas has become considerably more expensive. The federal economics ministry points to ongoing gas imports and does not see supply at risk. The managing director of the storage association INES, Sebastian Heinermann, by contrast calls the missed targets a warning signal to be taken seriously and says Germany is entering the heating season with smaller safety reserves and is vulnerable in extreme cold.

On 3 November the IEA warned that Europe is entering winter with its lowest gas reserves since 2013, and that storage could fall below 10 percent by the end of March 2027 in the event of a cold winter and a continuing disruption of LNG flows through Hormuz. Both conditions belong to that statement. The EU was at 74.6 percent on 1 November, or 844 of 1,132 terawatt hours, against 82.8 percent a year earlier; the best filled country was Italy at around 91 percent.

The price nevertheless calmed down this week. The TTF benchmark price stood at around 103 euros per megawatt hour on 30 October, fell on 2 and 3 November and stood at around 92.90 euros on 4 November. Before the war began in February 2026 it was around 30 euros. On the supply side the gap remains wide: Qatar shipped 2.25 million tonnes of LNG in October, 0.59 million more than in September, but 66 percent less than in October 2025, and not a single tonne went to Europe, where a year earlier it had been 0.47 million tonnes.

5. What reaches heating oil, diesel and gas

In consumer prices this week is not yet visible. For the week to 26 October the EU oil bulletin gives 1,750 euros per 1,000 litres in Germany, 2.2 percent more than the week before at 1,713 euros; the edition for the week to 2 November had not been published as of 4 November. Austria is at 1,830 euros, France at 1,952 euros, Spain at 1,508 euros per 1,000 litres. Spain is the only one of the four countries with a falling weekly value, around 0.9 percent less than the week before.

Supplier prices react faster, but they diverge, because they reflect different order volumes and different retrieval times. On 4 November HeizOel24 gives 172.90 euros per 100 litres as the national average for Germany and 0.16 percent more than the day before, esyoil 171.91 euros for 3,000 litres and TECSON 176.70 euros; the spread is around 5 euros. In Austria HeizOel24.at gives 183.95 euros per 100 litres, in Switzerland heizoel24.ch gives 171.75 Swiss francs per 100 litres and 1.03 percent less than the day before. In France prixfioul.fr gives 1,770 euros per 1,000 litres for fioul ordinaire at 06:42 on 4 November, 30 euros less than the day before, and 1,789 euros for fioul supérieur.

In the United States the national household price for heating oil stays at 6.190 US dollars per gallon for the week to 19 October, because the value for the week to 26 October was not retrievable on 4 November; for the state of New York the EIA likewise shows 19 October as the most recent week, at 6.417 dollars per gallon after 6.335 for 12 October and 6.227 for 5 October. The US energy department is releasing up to 315,000 barrels of heating oil from the Northeast reserve as a loan, with deliveries up to 13 November; this is an exchange with an obligation to return the volume and not a final release, and the quantity corresponds to less than one day of total US heating oil consumption in winter. On inventories, only the non official estimate of the American Petroleum Institute is available for the week to 30 October: crude down 5.267 million barrels, gasoline up 1.427 million, while on distillates two summaries of the same data contradict each other with minus 270,000 and minus around 1.19 million barrels. The official EIA weekly report had not been published as of 11am on 4 November.

In gas the TTF benchmark price stood at around 92.90 euros per megawatt hour on 4 November, after around 103 euros on 30 October. How much of that reaches a household depends on the contract and on the billing and follows the market price with a delay.