When oil prices jump, airlines pay more for jet fuel, and part of that ends up with you: as a fuel surcharge on the ticket or through a higher base fare. How much and how fast cannot be put into one number, because it depends above all on how an airline has hedged against price spikes.
Definition: How pass-through works
Jet fuel prices track crude oil, plus the cost of refining, transport and storage. When middle distillates are scarce, jet fuel can rise faster than crude: the IEA (22 June 2026) notes that the collapse in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also disrupted middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel.
Airlines often hedge part of their fuel needs with forward contracts; the unhedged part follows the market price. A price rise first hits only the unhedged share. As hedges expire and fuel has to be bought at the new price, the surcharge rises further.
Surcharge history
Fuel surcharges are a tool for periods of volatile oil prices. They draw little attention in calm years and come into focus in oil-price crises such as 2008, 2022 and 2026 (sourced data on these episodes: oil shocks compared). There are no comparable averages across airlines, because each carrier splits surcharge and base fare differently, so we do not quote amounts here.
For flights sold in the EU the rule is clear: the final price must always be shown and include all taxes, charges, surcharges and fees that are unavoidable and foreseeable, with fuel surcharges named explicitly (Regulation (EC) No 1008/2008, Art. 23).
Hedging imperfection and pass-through
Why not hedge everything? Forward contracts cost fees and tie up collateral, and if oil prices fall after the deal, a fully hedged airline pays more than its rivals. Many therefore hedge only part of their needs, and the share differs from airline to airline.
Timing: oil prices change daily, while fares and surcharges are adjusted in steps in booking systems. When a change reaches you depends on the airline and its sales channels.
Asymmetry: a surcharge can come down more slowly than it went up, and it can be raised quickly. Whether passengers pay more on average as a result has not been reliably measured for air travel.
What an oil shock costs your flights
There is no reliable one-size figure. How much your fare rises depends on the route, the airline, its hedging, demand and when you book. The direction is clear: if jet fuel stays expensive, hedges run off and the higher cost shows up more strongly in fares.
Policy also shapes costs over time: EU fuel suppliers must blend 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2025, 6% in 2030 and 70% in 2050 (Council of the EU, 9 October 2023). How much that adds to fares depends on SAF prices and is not fixed.
Action: What to look at when you book
- Monitor oil prices before booking: a Brent spike puts pressure on surcharges, but it does not tell you when or by how much airlines will adjust them.
- Compare total prices: in the EU the final price must always be shown, so compare offers on that, not on single items such as the surcharge.
- Book according to your travel plans, not a price forecast. Booking fixes your fare, whatever oil prices do afterwards.
- Weigh flexibility: flexible fares cost more but make changes cheaper; whether that pays off depends on your plans.